Well it is now. Or so we are told. Well another General Election is. And probably the EU withdrawal agreement. Oh and another decade, plus Christmas for another twelve months. So it’s a bit more than just ‘it’s‘. Get it, it’s all over ….

But it isn’t . It’s only just started . The devil is in the detail, and there is a devilish amount of detail. I don’t just want to rant on about Brexit negotiations, all negotiations are detailed and complex . Flogging party stuff, like what we do , should be pretty straightforward. Like..

Morning ‘Guv’ ‘ere’s my bit of red, white, and blue bunting (please note this subtle tale of patriotism) is ten metres long and costs ‘nuppence’ . ‘Ow much would you like ?

‘Guv’ replies ‘sod off’ or ‘ send me bucket loads ‘.

But it isn’t , Straightforward that is. In some cases it has taken five years to get to the ‘bucket loads’ bit.

So when it comes to something like trade negotiations. There is just a little more detail. The following is an extract from a paper relating to some negotiating over various grey areas within tariff classifications.

Tariff classification of Planed board with slightly rounded long sides (TAXUD/3177523/2019)

Classification as “wood sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed” under heading 4407? Or classification as “wood … continuously shaped (tongued, grooved, rebated, chamfered, v jointed, beaded, moulded, rounded or the like) along any of its edges, ends or faces, whether or not planed” under heading 4409?

 

This particular extract is one paragraph out of a page and a half on this one product, from a document over one hundred and fifty pages covering a load of incidentals about stuff of which is little known by man nor beast. The point being, this is just a tiny window into the enormous complexity that is commonly referred to as international trade talks.

I don’t want to rant on about the U.K. Government’s up and coming trade talks with the EU plus the ninety odd countries that it needs just to replace existing agreements. There is no point as it now just has to be done . I just feel when I read this ‘simple’ extract, it was a perfect illustration of the complexities of any negotiations. With tariff codes, for those that don’t know there is a product title number then below this there are series of sub sets . Simples !

The HS (Harmonised System) comprises approximately 5,300 article/product descriptions that appear as headings and subheadings, arranged in 99 chapters, grouped in 21 sections

Now that’s only products, it does not include services, nor intellectual property, data and load of constituent parts to various market places. What is more it only identifies a description of a product , and has nothing to do with any product standard. But I feel a rant coming , so I shall move on.

Many commercial negotiations seem on the surface, to be unnecessarily complex. Yet, particularly in larger organisations, there are many ‘Ts’ to be crossed and ‘Is’ dotted. For example, and this is a gross oversimplification and generalisation, you may have a product accepted at the lowest level within an organisation. This, then,may go to committee or at very least senior manager to approve. The next step is for it to be accepted by the merchandising department. This is to make sure it fits in store, both physically and philosophically. Then, after that, come logistics. They ensure that it can be distributed effectively throughout the estate. If this is all ok, Quality control will ensure it meets all relevant legal and ethical standards. Within this process there will some involvement from finance, to ensure that there are the resources to take this product. And that is by no means the end of the story. The organisation will at some point have to decide if it worth going through all this for just one product. The answer to that is generally ‘No’. Consequently, if you are fortunate enough to get a range selected, there will be appropriate form filling for every individual item, to satisfy every department in that chain .

Easy peezey, it is not. Oven ready it is not. Straightforward it is not. So when politicians, journalists, media types, so called experts, plus a big chunk of our population, rant on about any negotiation should be very simple and straightforward, need think again or at the very least consider the issues concerning planed board, with slightly rounded long sides….

Christmas is an artificial Construct

I aways wanted to write that since I was a wee child and bumped from a key role in my school’s nativity play. Well probably not true, but I was given lead role, a few years later, as Basildon Bond, 0013. Result… and probably the reason I have such a jaundiced view of Christmas.

Churches and Children listen up, I am not saying Christmas doesn’t exist or it is bad for you, this is about, not being good for your ‘elf or your ‘welf’.

Since Victorian times, Christmas has become the ultimate consumer event of the retailers’ year. In recent times, this has extended beyond societies of mainly Christian based populations to virtually any society, of no matter what faith, as long as that society has the wherewithal to spend some money in order to experience and enjoy the ‘non’ religious aspects of let’s spend a load of money for no particular reason time of year . For crying out loud , the whole traditional Father Christmas image is  an artifical construct (got it in again) by  the marketeers of Coca Cola in the 1930’s.

For many years the Christmas season, often defined as the last three months of the year, has been the period where most within the retail sector, manufacturers, importers, distributors and of course the retailer themselves, have made their money . The rest of the years trading covered their cost base , and loosely speaking, the last quarter was the time when real profits were to be had. Within the last twenty years that has started to change . Retailing has become so aggressive, margins so pressurised that without good Christmas trading , the shear existence of those within the chain is threatened.

This is not healthy. All retailing is subject to event based peaks and troughs, whether it Christmas, Valentines Day, Easter, Mothers Day, Fathers Day, Halloween, summer sales, Boxing Day Sales, and now Black Friday. Apart from perhaps the catering and travel industry I can not think of any other market sector that has created such a bumpy annual trading period. In a weird sort of way all those events have, historically, been latched(or in some cases such as Valentines and Mother’s Day created) onto by the retailing fraternity in order to boost their business. Yet, the consequence is now the mad scramble to sell stock at any price. Perhaps a slight exaggeration, but relying on the success of such seasonality can only add to a retailer’s misery.

An example of using a season to smoothen annual trading is unusual but not unknown. A number of years ago Garden Centres, understanding that during winter they had a load of unused space and came up with the idea that they would be the perfect outlet for Christmas decorations as they had the space to display the products at their best . The consequence of this action is that they now dominate the Christmas decoration market. Conversely, the toy industry, in about the late eighties, so concerned about the size of the end of year peak at Christmas attempted a campaign to get parents to give a gift of a toy at Easter. Needless to say it was not a success. Paradoxically ,the party industry which, as Christmas is supposed to be party time, does not perform especially well at Christmas, but has become very reliant on Halloween. If it’s a poor year for Halloween, it is an especially poor year for Party retailers. Turn the clock back a few years, Christmas was the time Party Retailers revelled in it literally . Wind forward and Party Retailers become fearful of a bad Halloween and do little business at Christmas(New year is ok).

There is no magic wand to smoothing out big spikes in Retail. Yet, I have one client who started about five years ago and refused to buy product related to any major event . His business model was to make the operation profitable on everyday business. Within a couple of years he had achieved that . Any additional business created by these spikes was icing on the cake and as a consequence the core business is a lot ‘elfier’ for it (apart from all the icing -which can be very bad for your teeth).

I am not a grinch (perhaps a bit of one) but the Christmas for retailers and consumer alike, juts seems to be a load of stress. Stress in buying stuff they don’t whether is right for  those they are buying for and more often don’t really have the spare cash to afford. Then a load more cash is spent on far too much food, much of which does not get eaten. And that, that does get consumed , is because everyone overeats. No it ain’t ‘elfy, it makes you less ‘welfy’….And the Elf in the image ? By the look on his face , I think he is skiving, cos he is fed up with fat block with a beard in a red suit bossing him around. Oh and the Elves…No, they are real. They are just a transmogrication of the poor buggers stressing around in their white vans trying get that last present delivered on Christmas Eve, you were too stressed and forgot to order, for your nearest and dearest….