2023…Could be a (or not so) Great Year ….?

My Customers will start ask me the perennial question…How do you think the new year will be. I am very succinct and precise. It could be good or bad. That’s it in a nutshell.

There is a footnote to this response that is not always obvious as depending who the customer is I do not include this is in my ‘six word ‘ financial forecasts.

I am very clear in my own head ( as if anyone is any doubt ??)

  • I am not a financial analyst
  • I am not a retail analyst
  • I am not a market analyst
  • I am not an analyst

But I am frequently asked the question at the beginning of the year by customers, colleagues, Julia , A few friends ( very few that confined, in that I only have a few , very few. To extend my audience I have asked Aristotle ( our dog) and his canine response is I am only interested in three things

  • Walking (currently it is -5 degrees but that doesn’t bother him )
  • Food
  • A massage

As long as my face and the sound of my voice assures him, that is the only interest he has in the coming year.

There is undoubtedly a number of gloomy indicators out there , especially for the first three months. Cost of energy, continuing Ukraine crisis, inflation, interest rates , consumer confidence, industrial unrest, and a lot of uncertainty within the World .

So what’s good about 2023

  • Inflation appears to be peaking and below what was forecasted
  • Interest rates whilst still rising are predicted to be well below original forecasts
  • Sterling has recovered some of its losses
  • Covid does not present the same barrier it has for the last 2 years
  • Fixed mortgage rates have reduced a little
  • The survey of 138 companies, including 50 retailers, found that a net balance of 11 per cent of businesses said sales grew, up from -19 per cent in November (CBI)
  • A Coronation (at least for the Party Sector in the U.K. )
  • Retail landlords are starting to become a little more realistic

This does not detract from it being potentially being very tough, but it should be put into some of perspective. The total retail sales within the U.K. in 2021 were £421 billion . There were approximately 316,000 retail outlets. If retail sales fall by 3% that equals £12 billion . However, if we look it another way a consumer who had £100 in their pocket to spend freely may only have £97. If you extrapolate that further and look at the total U.K. spend on party (of which it is really difficult to find a true figure) even if was half of 1% of total retail spend which would be a gross over estimate , we are looking at targeting less than 50p of the consumer spend .

There will be many (gross exaggeration) readers who will say don’t be bloody stupid ….that’s only £30 million total party market. It is quite clearly many times that but the principal is the same . Within our market place our target audience is a very small proportion of their overall disposable income.

Twixt the optimist and pessimist
The difference is droll:
The optimist sees the doughnut
But the pessimist sees the hole.

McLandburgh Wilson b. 1892 author

Everyone buys Online Now !

No they don’t !

Office for National Statistics October 2023

This means 75% of purchases are not online .

For every £100 we spend , £75 is spent in a shop ( or it’s brick equivalent).

I last posted about this about 6 years ago. Little has changed apart from the share of online has naturally increased, but the drop in market share post Covid is evidence that purchasing online is not always consumer heaven.

More importantly is that not all about consumer preferences . It is also about the complexities of selling online.

Are you an Exhibitionist ?

I am not.

Or rather not in the way displayed by the guy above.

I am, in terms of probably having been an exhibitor at about 140 trade exhibitions during my working life time. Over 80% of those I have been involved in the building and taking down of said exhibition stands. Moreover for the last twenty years plus I have been a Director of Exhibition Company. If that makes me an exhibitionist in the same way as someone who does art is an artist , then so be it.

I return to this subject on occasion, as it is sort of the end of the season for my market place in terms of significant trade shows (party, Christmas, toys and cards) so the issues , and they are mainly issues, are fresh in my head. For purposes of my own clarity of thought, something quite difficult for me to achieve, I shall split this into three sections, Organiser, Exhibitor and Visitor (Buyer).

Like anything, there are good and bad. As a generalisation they fall into two camps: Big & Small. The Big ones in my experience are the worst offenders . By ‘offenders’ I mean rubbish organisers.

My personal experience of large organisations running trade shows is down to one Exhibition and many different companies running it over at least forty five years(at The NEC, in total it has been running for over 70 years) . The Show concerned is the The Spring fair held every year at the NEC in Birmingham in the UK . It became one of the largest English Speaking Consumer Goods B2B exhibition in the world . The breadth of product ran from Furniture, Fashion, Jewellery , through to Luggage, Household and even Party . It filled all 20 Halls (190,000 sqm or 2,000,000 sqft) . There were over 3000 exhibitors and upwards of 70,000 visitors from all over the world . It has an extraordinary location , in that it is in walking distance of Birmingham Airport , Mainline train station (direct from Birmingham Central & London Euston) and quite literally minutes away from an extensive Motorway network , which can take you all the way the Glasgow, London, Manchester & Newcastle without a traffic light. A great deal has changed since 1976 when it first opened and most Exhibitions (Worldwide) have suffered falling numbers, both in terms of exhibitors and potential buyers . Yet the decline with this show has been even more dramatic, now not being able to fill 8 Halls and around only 1200 exhibitors.

How So ?

Like many large operators an element of arrogance. When the show was full and there were waiting lists there was a great deal of ‘you will do what we want you to do even if that is not best for your company ‘ attitude. During later years as the decline (partly due to the changing profile of the retail market place )this persisted but in a different way even under different owners . This manifested itself in many ways such as constantly re-organising Halls , re-organising stand locations ,even when being promised a stand location if booked early only to be moved . This happened three times to a friend of mine in 2023 .

Then there was the year that they proposed parking charges, suggesting somehow this was good thing. There was uproar and they capitulated . In 2023 they ( with a fanfare ) were going to add a substantial (additional I may add) marketing fee to each exhibitor for the use of contact software which buyers would use to make 15 minute slot appointments on stands. Once again claiming this was an amazing opportunity (obligatory) for every exhibitor . Following, what was probably an exhibition first at least in the UK, Industrial Action(better name for gentle riot) at the Autumn Fair . Another 180 degree decision making process. And finally (trust me there are lots more) in an email to prospective visitors they trumpeted wonderful new benefits eg Extra seating in the Halls (or rather aka lack of exhibition stands ) and a happy hour drinks late afternoon for buyers . Well thanks very much exhibition organiser for a super way of sucking the potential buyer away from visiting stands. That said if it did happen I don’t know of any buyer that made use of it.

For Good Organisers trying looking at smaller shows (Christmas & Gift in Harrogate for example ) . Of course I am biased .

Organisers sell space and market the show to potential buyers. Exhibitors rent the space dress it, display their product and focus on getting their target buyer to come to the show and visit the stand . Simples, as a well known Meerkat says. For the most part exhibitors do this well. Well at least creating a welcoming and effective area of display. What some do , and it is a minority but a largish minority, they rely on the Organiser to bring in the punter. They have a responsibility but if you are a exhibitor, who has spent a lot of time and money on your space, it is you that should target your potential customer base and get the visitors to come and to come to your stand. If a major buyer attends the show and does not come to your stand it is not the fault of the Organiser. The blame lies elsewhere.

If a group of buyers that you would expect to see are at the show but don’t come to you. It is not the fault of the Organiser. The blame lies elsewhere.

If those buyers pass your stand and don’t come on . It is not the fault of the Organiser. The blame lies elsewhere.

Lastly, if they do come and never buy from you it is not the fault of the Organiser. The blame lies elsewhere.

The exhibitor has to work hard to find out who they want to come , then if they are coming inducing them to visit your stand and when they do make it an interesting and informative experience.

Seeing it from both sides of the counter , I find it quite extraordinary that companies both big and small who have spent not an inconsiderable sum on showing at a trade exhibition and then display (sometimes very poorly- display that is ) a very laissez faire attitude towards the very organisation’s they presumably want to trade with or at very least open a channel of communication. Then to make it even worse fail to follow up after the show.

There are Good and Bad. Without argument there are considerably less in number -no matter the market – than there were twenty years . Take my own industry, there were over 350 wholesalers ( of various shapes and sizes) of Greeting cards about twenty five years ago, maybe thirty. If only half of those visited any one relevant trade show there would be three to four colleagues, from most of the visiting companies, equalling over 500 visitors. Today there are barley a dozen (and that is generous figure ) still trading today. If two colleagues from half of the companies came to a show today , it equals 10 visitors. Moreover that 10 would each spend less time at the show as against the 500+.

Unfortunately the Good & Bad have a similar impact on those depleting numbers.

Bad

Looking at Bad, is actually quite complex. As Bad can mean various things.

  • Buyers who just never go to a trade show. If you don’t you quite literally do not know what you are missing . It maybe nothing but you don’t know unless you go
  • Buyers who go but don’t look . Rather they do look but only at their existing suppliers
  • Buyers that suffer from that horrendous affliction of Trade show over enthusiasm. I have seen the symptoms so many times . They visit your stand . Are very enthusiastic and tell you to contact them afterwards. When doing so ( contacting them that is ) never take take or return your calls. Even worse they take your call and haven’t a ‘scooby do ‘ as to what you are talking about . The worst scenario which has only happened to me a couple of times. They actually do take your call. They make an appointment . Then when you do turn up, they don’t or ask why are you here ?
  • Those that that don’t tell you who they are . I appreciate that some of the bigger buyers don’t want to be hassled but I’m sure they are professional enough to be able handle unwanted advances . If you, the seller, don’t know who you are talking to, you can’t best inform or help them.

Good

  • Those that spend good quality time at relevant trade shows , talking to existing suppliers about future developments in addition to looking for those who may have products and services that they would not have come across and would add value to their business.
  • Those that understand that exhibitions are not just about buying stuff or looking for stuff to buy. They are also about networking. Talking to suppliers and maybe competitors. Very often it is the only time especially with smaller operators that they get to see wider pictures of what is going on in their market places . It can go further . Looking at trends not necessarily directly related to your own product or service category but those areas that indirectly affect your business.

How about that ? It’s much easier being a Good buyer than a Bad buyer.

Over the last fifteen years or so the role of the Trade Exhibition has changed enormously . The three parties (organisers, exhibitors and visitors) that do not recognise this, will be party to the continuing decline of trade shows. They are no longer places for taking or placing orders. They are no longer events that will attract visitors in the numbers of days long gone.

If the Organiser does not provide a facility that is affordable and welcoming, the exhibitor will no longer exhibit. The Organiser will fail . However if the exhibitor and visitor still wants a relevant event, an alternative Organiser will appear. If they decide they don’t need a show then a show won’t happen .

So in conclusion Organisers need to raise their game

organizatores certaminis, cave

Trade show organisers, be aware

A bad exhibitor’s business won’t necessarily fail because they have a rubbish stand . It won’t help but it won’t fail.

A Buyer’s business won’t necessarily fail because they don’t go to an exhibition. It won’t help but it won’t fail.

Eventually an Organiser’s business will fail if it is a rubbish Organiser.