Never having been a great fan of major organizations’ ability to forecast with any degree of reliability, what has happened within the last three to few weeks has surely thrown any forecasts into a very deep black hole.

When Donald Trump became President in January, the US stock market (followed by others) went through the roof. This was an administration that was very ‘pro’ business ( American business that is ). When the Administration started applying Tariffs, then postponing, then reinstating, then postponing, the markets did not like it and fell as did the Dollar, and US bonds tanked ( as they have done since early January).

None of this, is particularly, out of the ordinary. All new administrations, especially in the US, impact markets in various ways.

The uncertainty generated by President Trump’s promises to impose tariffs and carry out mass job cuts threaten the world economy’s soft landing after years of high inflation and interest rates, the Bank for International Settlements has warned.

Frank Smets, deputy head of the BIS monetary department, said: “Policy uncertainty on tariffs, [US] fiscal policy, immigration and regulation … work like a negative demand shock. They would have negative effects on spending, investment — and we see some signs of that.” 

But it is not all about the Macro effects. Only recently (17th March) the OECD cut their forecasts on growth in all of the G7 economies. How about us minions on the ground floor so to speak? The impacts are very difficult to estimate let alone forecast. One moment a nation is threatened with an enormous tariff rate only to be reversed 24 hours later , and then put back again. If you wanted to order 5000 thingymegigs, with a lead time of 6 weeks, do you order more now because they are about to be affected by a tariff in 8 weeks? Only then to find that the tariff is rescinded and you have to carry and pay for an excess stock of thingymegigs. Fortunately, it looks like thingymegigs will escape any tariff. Probably because they don’t want to make them in the States. The really stupid thing about this Tariff hammer to crack a nut, is that Trump keeps saying that the rest of the world has been taking the mick out of American business. If that were even true, then more fool American Business. He never mentions anything about the USA imprting loads of product that are made better by otehr nations.

The phone has been ringing off the hook for Lewis Black after China imposed export controls on tungsten, a niche metal mined by his firm that’s crucial to weapons manufacturing.

The chief executive officer of North America’s Almonty Industries Inc. said his customers are in a “state of disbelief” following Beijing’s move on Tuesday, one of a suite of measures announced as a riposte to tariffs placed on Chinese goods by the Trump administration. –Mining.com Feb 2025 .

So what’s this got to do with the Minions(the rest of us)? The game of darts, in the UK, is enjoying a huge resurgence. This resurgence is, of course, creating a massive demand for Darts. What is one of the key components? – Tungsten. Speaking recently to a major online retailer of darts kit, they are clearly aware of product shortages which will get worse and more expensive. Could they have forecasted this three months ago? The increase in demand Yes, the supply issues No.

Where else is Tungsten used?

• military: accounting for an estimated 12% of demand, with the highest melting-point of any metal, tungsten is essential across a range of military applications, including armour-piercing munitions, tank armour, and missiles
• technology: tungsten is crucial in the efficiency and durability of solar panels, semiconductors, robotics, and potentially even for the walls of nuclear fusion reactors due to its capacity to withstand extreme heat and radiation
• electric vehicles: electric vehicles require approx 2kg of tungsten for gearing systems, battery anodes and cathodes, as well as about 2,000 wiring looms in the vehicle’s semiconductors
• tungsten is also used in mining equipment, energy production, construction, and aerospace

-The Oregon Group February 2025

Darts, sort of miss out on the priority list. However, it illustrates how far down the chain these random and chaotic decisions go. Professional forecasters struggle to get it right at the best of times …

 according to new Berkeley Haas research that examined the longest-running survey of professional forecasters, is that these predictions tend to be overly precise. Forecasters reported 53% confidence in the accuracy of their forecasts, but were correct only 23% of the time, the researchers found.-Berkeley Haas, September 2024.

Now is not the best of times. Everything is up for change, and yet nobody really knows what this change is. Big or small, organizations have to forecast. You can only play the cards you have in front of you (using an analogy oft used by that well-known leader of the Western world). Whilst it is always good to have a Plan B, now it is critical. Therein lies another problem. Generally, when making a Plan B, you use judgement, information and data, plus a lot of ‘what ifs‘ to create the Plan. They have all been swept out the door.

This may not all be bad. Some good may come out of this. But once again, having not a clue as to what that good maybe, makes it very tough to create a strategy. Currently, any benefit you may see could likely be completely changed within a day, because of a reverse ferret in the direction of the bloke at the top.

Economic forecasts serve as a crucial tool for policymakers and business leaders, guiding decisions that shape fiscal policies and corporate strategies. However, the mixed track record of such predictions underscores the need for caution and flexibility. By understanding the inherent limitations of forecasts and employing a probabilistic approach to future scenarios, we can better navigate the uncertainties of the economic landscape. -Solidarityeconomy.eu August 2024

The quote above makes no mention of Chaos.

And the OBR, like most economic forecasters, have a long history of getting things wrong.

As far back as 2012 it predicted that GDP growth in 2017 would be 2.8 per cent when in fact it was 1.7 per cent.

Likewise, in 2016 it predicted that the interest the government would pay on debt in 2020 would average 1.9 per cent when in fact it came in at 0.4 per cent.–The Times March 2025

When you open your store on a Monday morning, there are some reasonable certainties that you can count on. You know what the rent will be. You know the wages you will have to pay. You will be aware of the power bills, your commercial insurances et al, and you will know what you want to sell. Each Monday, you maybe less certain of how much you will have to pay for your product, but when you know that you will know what you need to sell it for . If, of course, there are not any supply issues. You will have a pretty good idea who your ideal customer is .

That’s the stuff you do know . If you have a meeting with your friendly bank manager to increase your overdraft ( stupid suggestion as there no bank managers let alone friendly ones ) or are seeking a loan or investment, they will ask you to give them a forecast for the following quarter (or whatever).

Well Bank manager person, I know all of the above but what I really don’t know is if my ideal customers come into my store, how many there will be or what their consumer psychology tells them how much they can spend ?

So my good Store owner, what did they spend last year?

That’s very easy to tell you, but what I have not got a scooby do about is, what they will spend tomorrow. You want a forecast from me when the OBR is consistently wrong .

Answer me this Mr Bank Manager (yes, when they existed they were invariably male. However, I had a female bank manager and she was bloody good. She taught me to Scuba Dive!). So what’s your bank’s forecast for the next six months? And does that include the current old geezer leader of the western world ( consensus probably says he no longer is- leader of the western world that is) changing his mind every other day without giving a toss to the consequences? Even if he is aware of the consequences.

So whilst the art of forecasting is very definitely dark, it remains a necessity. Currently, sticking a wet finger in the air and seeing which way the wind is blowing is probably as useful and accurate as anything.

Wind is my closing comment. For non Native English speakers, the slang for breaking personal wind is a Fart. Trump is a slightly more polite alternative. Trump is also the word used to denote the strongest suit when playing certain card games. Donald is very keen to talk about having all the cards. So, perhaps, we can now consider that the Art of forecasting is currently determined by the next Fart of the Trump.

I dont think we will have to wait long for the next Trump Fart.

A footnote:

Can anyone please tell me what VAT has got to do with discrimination against anyone’s products. It is applied to all (virtually all), no matter the country of origin ?