It would seem be that Amazon won Christmas. Or at least that is the view of most analysts.

In common with most Christmas holidays when journalists seem to loose the will to write anything intelligent, opnion on what is happening on the High street seemed to change daily. It went from anything up to 5% down to a ‘sudden rush on the last three days’ to record boxing   day sales . All the indicators pointed to a good Christmas, wages starting to rise, low inflation, falling unemployment, fair economic outlook, but none of this seem to translate into the festive spend.

I think the reality of what happens at Christmas changed a number of years ago even pre-dating the impact of online retailing. The festive season is undoubtedly the most important consumer spend. However, a few years ago , when ‘Boxing Day ‘plus sales started to have an impact on pre Christmas shopping habits, the consumer started to become more canny. In the last three years Black Friday has exacerbated this trend. I feel that consumers are tempted to spend on things they really don’t want, but that is irrelevant as the money is taken out of the spending pot.

Whilst ,apparently, online  still only accounts for approximately 10% of retail spend, though I suspect this is much higher in the last quarter, this is very significant in the scheme of things. Many retailers say they only make their profit in the last three months of the year. That 10% could well be their profit. Hence many retailers,big or small, are feeling the pinch.

It is not all plain sailing for the online operators. There are a number of significant players who have had a tough Christmas eg The Home Retail Group (including ARGOS). Ocado shares have just taken a hit because Amazon is increasing its food offering. But Amazon is a different beast. Like it or loathe it, it is a trusted brand for the consumer. The consumer knows that can order what they want, get it when they want it, at a price they want, and if they don’t like it send it back at no cost . All with very little effort. There  are very few market place brands that curry so much consumer support. Whilst Amazon is seen as the site to go for price , it is much more than that, it’s  primary driver is to satisfy the needs of the consumer.

I am no apologist for Amazon, and I might refer to it an awful lot but that is because I strongly believe it is and will be for the immediate future the key ‘shaper’ of not only our own market but that of most other retailers. We might not like it, and there are many of those within our industry who don’t, but we cannot ignore it. If anyone were to ask for a prediction for 2016(nobody has yet) it would be that our changing market will continue to change , albeit quicker, and Amazon will have played a part in those changes.. The secret will be knowing what those changes are going to be. 

A very happy, healthy and prosperous 2016 to all. 

No it’s not a spelling mistake but sounds more interesting than facts and figures, which is really the subject of this short post.

Fact:It has just been reported that Amazon accounts for virtually 40% of all online sales within the USA.This is quite an extraordinary figure, and whilst I don’t know  how this stacks up in the UK, it is surely an indicator of what is likely to happen over here.

Fact & Figures:Figures announced in the UK during the last week show record retail sales in November. Part of this increase has been attributed to Black Friday. What it does not show, whether it is accurate or not, is the cost ie the profitability of this increase(or lack of). Neither does it show whether it has taken sales from another period especially December. This will only be shown when the December figures are in. We are pretty good in the UK in creating Sales events, when  we do not actually need them ; ie when consumers are already in the mood to spend. It invariably leads to loss of margin.

Fortunately, the latter is one aspect of retailing that I suspect has little impact on our market place. About five years ago Halloween margins were threatened when the big discounters decided they wanted a slice of it. Yet Party retailers, neatly side stepped this by not trying to compete and sold products and ranges the discounters couldn’t. It is difficult to imagine when a sale can ever be beneficial in our market place apart from clearing old stock. The biggest threat to margins, within our sector, still remains online vs bricks and mortar.

Fat Fact Figure: I have just read an article that says the government is funding trials in the new year, for driverless deliveries. Does this mean the end of the fat figure driving white vans?

So down to the title. The only relevant ‘Fat’ figure, is the one who should be dropping down your chimney , or equivalent residential entry point with a whole load of goodies, within the next few days.

Here’s to a very Happy Christmas and loads of money being spent on New Year’s Eve parties.

Naff, trite and cliched, but I have to admit it is one those little tenets that I try to always  have in the back of my mind. If you adhere to it rigidly, it can save you a lot of problems and worries.

The difficulties lie in the words,themselves . You don’t know what to expect and life has the habit of throwing curved balls when you least expect them. There have been many times in my working and in my personal  life when a little curved ball has coming flying at me and smacked me bang between the eyes.

A great working example was the millennium. I, as did others, spent the eighteen months prior to the event going around the whole of our industry  saying what a massive event it would be. Most believed us, but it never happened or rather a damp squib occurred  instead. So what is the consequence? For my part , if ,now,asked  ‘…..next year there is that huge celebration of the centenary of emus being kept in captivity (weak joke, but certainly unexpected ) ….do you think it will mean we will sell loads of emu costumes….My answer would be ‘…..it might be, but then it might not….but  it is important you know about it….’ Not very helpful or practical, especially in an industry where you are often asked for your opinion on such matters. The other consequences were far more dramatic, a huge unsaleable stock carry over and an entire industry loss of confidence in any future event for  the best part of a generation.

I expected it to happen and did not even consider it not happening, despite Julia constantly expressing her doubts.

On a personal day to day level, it is a little easier. Not trying to act as a ninja, I do try and be aware of my surroundings, people, places and atmosphere, whether it is in the car , public transport, restaurant or even with a customer. How does this work in practice ? If in  a customer’s retail store, I try and make sure I see them make tea, in case they try and poison me ( another weak joke, but again unexpected!) . No, I try and make myself aware if they have customers in the store and that I am not hindering them. Furthermore, I am ,also, aware of the unexpected visit of a competitor, who may over hear this cracking deal I am offering (totally unexpected)

However, what I do or don’t do is really of no interest to anyone else, they are just there for illustration. Where I think it can come into play and have a negative effect on the business is where the unexpected occurs and the response is like a dazed rabbit in headlights. I was recently in a party store (not a customer, nor will they be) and they were asked if they had particular type of costume. The answer was ‘….sorry we don’t stock that design..no demand for it…’ Instead of reacting to the unexpected and offering an alternative or to see if it can be sourced. This a slight oversimplification of a longer story but the consequence was the same, a lost customer who in all probability won’t ever come back.

The alternative scenario, but equally bonkers, is going into a shoe shop asking if they have a particular shoe in your size , only to be told they don’t have your size but they do have the same design three sizes smaller. Ok, not really , expecting the unexpected, but a personal gripe of mine and Julia’s , and the first time I could publicly express it !

Is there any conclusion ? I strongly believe that if you keep those three words in the forefront of planning all aspects of one’s life, the ups and downs would be marginally easier to handle. By definition you don’t know what the ‘unexpected ‘ will be . But if you get the time to sit down and run some sort of ‘risk analysis ‘ ,both positive and negative, on your organisation. The negative maybe something like the ‘unexpected ‘ loss of power for an extended period (recent floods in Cumbria ) . The positive could be a potential customer looking for a large number of an ‘unexpected ‘items that you don’t normally stock . Then stick these thoughts in a box in your head, and try and dig them them out when the ‘unexpected ‘ turns up.

Why I am bleating on about this? On a personal level, very recent negative  ‘unexpected ‘experience, was just made that little bit easier by subconscious mental preparation. Apologies , for sounding like a smug , smarty pants, as that implication is far from the truth. I just felt thinking about it may be of help to someone or some organisation.

Three notable activities have come to my attention this week, Black Friday, Snapdeal and Get. A week is stretching the time scale, but call it bloggers license.

Black Friday…..a bizzare American import , initiated in the UK by Asda Walmart, two years ago. It’s a bit like Japanese knotweed, seemed like a good idea at the time, but now you can’t get rid of it. ASDA have pulled back a bit, and this year it appears that the bulk of sales have retreated to the Internet. Amazon claims it has had just had its biggest day ever in the UK. Yet high street retailers, state it was quieter than last year. In the USA it is the day after thanksgiving. Historically, we had the equivalent with Boxing Day sales, now we have two days within the same season, sucking more margin and revenue out of the prime consumer season .

Snapdeal…catchy name, but what is it? Not immediately obvious, but it is the Indian version of Amazon and Alibaba. Currently , trading mainly in India, but have announced their intentions  and aims , to pursue the other two. Consequently, it won’t be long before we start seeing it in Europe. Now competition is no bad thing, as it will keep the others on their toes. But the flip side of this, is that it will make the market even more aggressive. Now there is a third flip side, three side coin being an interesting concept on its own , and that is there, maybe something the Indians want to buy from you.

Get…to the point, but what is the point. A French company has launched an app(Get) enabling independent retailers to create a mobile presence at little or no cost. They make their money from taking a small percentage on everything you sell via the app. Currently, I think it is only available in France but if it were to cross the channel, I could see it as a great opportunity for party retailers to access a market, that would be hitherto,be too expensive and complex for them to enter via any current alternative method.

Now it’s up to you how you view or categorise these three , but what is for certain, is that they all, in different ways, will effect all of us in our market place.

In a week of the horrendous events of Paris, I find it rather difficult to post about the menial trials and tribulations of our market place.

So I have decided to go completely left field and talk about the bath vs shower debate. Now before you pick up your edition of the financial times, or decide that the leaflet for double glazing that has dropped through your letter box has got to be more interesting, hang fire, be patient , give this a chance …

A recent article prompted this train of thought and it was from the ‘pro bath’ lobby. Julia and I have always been bathers despite numerous friends, in recent years,ripping out perfectly good baths and building wet rooms , leaving their houses ‘bath less’. Now, we have been around a bit and experienced most forms of showers, including upside buckets in the bush, ‘rain forest’ showers in high end hotels, power showers at friends, bowls of upturned cold water in the mountains, but none beats our bath. 

But it is not just our personal preferences,  look at the evidence. Showers are supposed to be more eco friendly, in so far as they use less water and power. Not so with power showers, especially if you share your bath water ( yeah, okay we do, but will come back to that). They are supposed to be healthier and cleaner. Not so, especially in hotels where you get wrapped in bacteria ridden, fungus engulfed smelly plastic shower curtains. Do elite athletes have cold showers? No they have ice baths. Is one of the corner stones of Japanese culture , a shower , no it is the Onsen, a hot bath. Are there Turkish showers? no of course not. What did the Romans invent? Did they go for the easy option , no they invented modern plumbing and the bath. There are not any cultures , that I can think of that revolve around the shower. Do you have a spa shower? No you immerse yourself in the healing waters in a spa bath . And the final piece (and the most convincing) of evidence is that Archimedes had his ‘eureka’ moment in the bath.

Sharing our bath water, yes I always get in last.

So what is the purpose of this self indulgent ramble. All of us get bombarded , on a daily basis, with information from the media, the web, our friends and colleagues, that if we take a course of action in a particular way, it will be more efficient, plus benefiting ourselves, those around us and society in general. Most of this information is correct and should be considered. Occasionally, as individuals, we have a belief that our way would actually be better. If it is better for you, your organisation, or those close to you and it does not impact negatively on people or things  around you, stick with it.

For a long time retailers in the UK, left a lot to be desired when it came to service. Much has changed in recent years , a bit like UK restaurants, when they are good , they are hard to beat. 

Hence, when you do get bad service it sticks out like a sore thumb. I am not the type who will give a torrent of abuse to a retailer just because they not bowing to my every need but two recent experiences really wound me up. On both occasions, they were multiple retailers, one large and one small.

Recently , Julia and I visited a particular small chain retailer, looking for a sofa. They were specialists who only sold there own brand and it was a design we both liked. Julia rang the store,in London’s West End, to ask if this design was in the showroom and that we would be coming in about a hours time. 

Now, my wife can be like an Exocet missile when it comes to bad service. You don’t see her coming but creates havoc on impact. On this particular   occasion  she was like a cuddly pussy cat. We asked at least four technical questions (technical to us) , each one was prefaced by ‘…I am sorry to disturb you…’.

Each and every time the shop assistant (and that is exactly what they were) stood up from behind their computer and gave their answer, then promptly sat down again. On the one occasion, that she came over to give her answer (she had to because we were out of visual contact) she spun on a sixpence, returned to her computer and colleague and continued their discussion  on how nice would it would be if there was a shower in the shop.

Now our dilemma was that we wanted to buy this sofa. But there was no way we were going to give her the satisfaction of knowing that , or indeed rewarding her tawdry retailing skills. So we thought we would try another branch. The following weekend, we visited another branch , and the experience could not have been different. The staff were delightful, informative,welcoming and made us feel like a ‘valued ‘ customer. We made our purchase and enjoyed the retail experience. Julia has vowed she will have her Julia Roberts moment in the West End store.

The next event happened last week. I went into a national chain, Halfords, and bought 2 water bottles for my bike . On approaching the till, the guy said would I mind taking my purchases downstairs as he had a form to complete. For all he knew I could have been trying to buy a two grand bike, instead of £4 worth of water bottles. Like a good boy, I tottered down the stairs and joined a queue of one. When it was my turn , I received an apology for having to wait sixty seconds. Noticing he was the deputy manager, I said ‘….thank you but I suggest you tell your colleague upstairs, that taking customers cash is a priority to form fulfilling…’ He, then asked if he actually did this , and then he said he would talk to him.

The point here is that there are retailers within our industry displaying a similar lack of professionalism. Friday evening I ordered an item from Amazon. It arrived through my letter box 8:30 on Saturday morning . Frightening as it is, this is where we are. We have to step up to the mark where necessary and show how good we can be. For those that don’t there won’t be many tomorrows left in retailing.

When I say ‘we’ I mean the royal ‘we’. Whether supplier or retailer we have to try to work to make sure that our industry grows and does not succumb to threats such supply from web from source. 

I am not over enamoured with the BBC consumer programme ‘Watchdog’. Some of the presentations are made with a slightly smug attitude. More annoying is the propensity to superficiality and lasy investigating.

So it was with a great deal of apprehension that I watched last Thursday’s edition knowing they were doing a final comment on the problem of flammability and kids Halloween costumes, forty eight hours prior to this year’s Halloween.

What a welcome surprise to see them offering sensible tips on how to prevent potential accidents this year. There, however, were more surprises to come as they added cosmetic contact lenses to the programme.

Apparently, they have been informed by trading standards, that you cannot sell them without an optometrist, or medical practioner,on site. It is against the law. Now being ‘Watchdog ‘ , I had my reservations . However, it seems that  this is the case. As is their want, they visited ten costume/party  shops and were offered contact lenses, without their being an optometrist on site. No surprise there. I have never been comfortable about cosmetic lenses . Being a past wearer of contacts , I know how much of a pain they can be. To wear them cosmetically, in an environment where there the user is likely to be ‘blotto’ before or after, to me is not a good mix. Yet, as far as I know there have been very few, if any, incidents over the last four or five years.

What are the criminal offences involved?

Zero-powered lenses can be supplied only by or under the supervision of a registered optometrist, dispensing optician or medical practitioner.

Supervision requires the registered person to be present on the premises, aware of the procedure and in a position to intervene if necessary. The seller/supplier must also make arrangements for the wearer to receive ongoing care.

Any sales of cosmetic contact lenses that do not meet these requirements are ilegal under the Optician Act.

When we learn about alleged breaches of the Act, we take action. In the first instance, we will usually write to the seller and invite them to cease any illegal activity. Further action may be taken if necessary, for example, a private prosecution or liaison with the CPS or other public prosecuting body.

General Optical Council

This appears quite clear. However, I am sure the retailers in our industry are completely unaware of this. From initial browsing I can see no mention of it on suppliers web sites. If this is as straight forward as it appears then retailers are going to have a good look at what they are selling and how they intend to go forward. 

Whilst the huge peak of sales occur at Halloween, I know a number of retailers are able to sell the product year round. Without wanting to put the frighteners on anyone , I do suggest that , where relevant, everyone has a good look at what is legal and what is not. Watchdog is not known for just looking at a product the one time without returning to the scene. But more importantly, retailers need to sort this out before anything nasty happens.

The title is supposed to be a bit of an unsuccessful play on words, substituting Pub Crawl. So having failed dismally, I shall move on to content.

Over the last few weeks I have been visiting customers, bricks and mortar independent retailers and online operators, trying to get a Halloween overview and I am delighted to say(most), looking down the barrel of the last week, they all look good and are very positive.

I have also looked at the high street multiples , mainly the big supermarkets and the discount operators. In my opinion, I am not at all surprised the independents are doing well as the big boys have only got one thing going for them and that is price. Their ranges are uninspiring, they lack excitement and do not seem to have moved on from five years ago. I won’t be thanked for suggesting where I think they could simply correct this. Quite honestly they wouldn’t be interested and why should they. They will sell out anyway.

What they do offer is a tight range at low prices for those families who have neither time  nor budget to arrange a Halloween event. But in my view they miss the opportunity to make more of store theatre encompassing the food and drink sections. I believe this would make whole event much bigger for everybody . I don’t see why the  food industry can’t make it number two to Christmas in terms a single event.

What I did not see in the supermarkets is any evidence that they had kids costumes which conformed to the children’s nightwear regs. They all carried tags warning of the dangers of fire and naked flames, but little else to suggest the product was any different to anyone else’s .

The reality is that I don’t think the players in our industry   see the multiples as true competitors. You have both plowed your own furrows. 

Whatever your sector , all the signs are this will be a bumper Halloween season for all. The one very major difference between the multiples and the party industry, and that is, if Halloween didn’t exist, the multiples could live without it, I think the party market in the UK might not.

And no, I never went into a pub ……

Ali Baba, did not have 40 thieves , as he was not the bad guy, the thieves were,however, Alibaba (as in China’s huge on line platform) is looking to pinch some of the European market, from the likes of eBay and Amazon.

They are opening offices in Italy, Germany and France. There have been offices in the UK for some time . They have also appointed an ex TESCO executive, and they have also appointed a President, an ex Goldman Sachs executive to develop their international markets.

Currently they have a bit of a reputation for selling ‘hookey goods’ , but the other platforms haven’t  exactly got a clean bill of health, so it is probably not that bigger deal . Now they are investing heavily to develop and consequently ‘knick’ some market share.

The other side of the coin is that they are offering opportunities to European operators to sell into China.

Is there anything to worry about? Probably, but the problems will be focused on the online players in our market. Though, there is some good news and that is a third major player in the market place , which may mean they others maybe forced to look at their terms to platform users. 

Should retailers be concerned? Everyone needs to be aware of what their competitors are doing. Initially, I cannot see it have any immediate effect. It’s a bit like have one giant market effecting the local grocer, the second one will probably take the majority of the business from the first one. If you get my drift.

I don’t want to keep going on about this but I think it is imperative that everyone in this industry is kept uptodate.

Daily Mail

https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3264917/Tests-Halloween-outfits-catch-fire-three-seconds-despite-new-safety-rules.html&ct=ga&cd=CAEYACoTOTQ2NzgxNzExODg2MDYwNzQ1MjIcNzQ4NDU3YjE0ZjQ5YWMwMjpjby51azplb

Huffington Post

Mums are worried about the safety of their children’s Halloween costumes and are unaware about the safety precautions that have been put in place by some retailers, according to a new survey.
The fear comes after Claudia Winkleman’s daughter’s costume was set alight in 2014. It was later confirmed fancy dress costumes are considered “toys” rather than “clothes” when it comes to fire safety and so are not always subject to such stringent safety checks.
In a survey of 2,000 mums, three quarters said they wanted stringent laws ensuring all children’s dressing-up costumes are flame retardant to be introduced.
Only 14% of mums thought shop-bought costumes were safe and 55% were unsure if any rules had changed in terms of the safety of costumes.
The survey was completed by online video network, Channel Mum.
halloween
In response to the results, Channel Mum produced a video (above), in which two vloggers conduct a non-scientific test at home, using candles and costumes from popular high street stores.
They found that when the costumes were held above flames, they caught alight – showing the importance of considering fire safety when it come’s to having children’s costumes and toys around open flames.
Following a campaign to raise the safety standards of fancy dress costumes started by Claudia Winkleman in June 2015 many shops have worked to improve the safety of their costumes.
The Government ordered Trading Standards to carry out spot checks on costumes to see if they meet safety standards and while it’s not a legal requirement, many of the shops have gone through with it.
SEE ALSO:

Claudia Winkleman Speaks For The First Time About Daughter’s ‘Life Changing’ Injuries After Halloween Costume Caught Fire

Claudia Winkleman Shocked After Watchdog Reveals Dangers Of Children’s Costumes

Sainsbury’s have promised their children’s dress up range will meet the same strict fire safety standards that apply to nightwear.
Tesco and Asda will be applying more rigorous testing, and Marks & Spencer will also do so on future lines.
James Brown, director of non-food at Sainbury’s said: “We have looked at every detail of our children’s dress-up range in creating our new standard and believe that it will be industry-leading.
“This has not been a simple task, but the safety of children is our number one priority and introducing more rigorous safety standards for our children’s dress-up is the right thing to do.
“All clothing carries some fire risk, but we hope that introducing our own rigorous testing standards that test clothes as clothes rather than as toys will be the first step towards safer testing across the industry.”
As well as the major supermarkets, other online retailers selling Halloween costumes have also made their heightened safety testing clear on their website.
costume
On Peacocks.co.uk, a children’s Halloween butterfly costume available from ages one upwards states: “In the interest of children’s safety, this costume has been tested to toy safety standards BS EN71.
“In addition, we have tested this garment to the same fire regulations as children’s nightwear. Despite additional testing, please be safe around candles and naked flames including tea lights in pumpkins and sparklers.”
If purchasing costumes online, it is worth checking all product descriptions under “care and information” to see whether the retailer has relayed this information on fire safety.
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Halloween Costumes For Babies: Best Fancy Dress Ideas

It is all poor journalism , yet it is out there and what the public see. The best bit of journalism I have heard, was Tony Livesy a BBC 5 live presenter. He said….it makes sense to avoid flames and use fake(led) tea lights…