Tag: Balloons

All Shook Up….World Politics ..and no less than the Retail Party Market!

Posted on by markybrett

Oh, well, a-bless my soul, but what’s wrong with me?
I’m itchin’ like a man on a fuzzy tree
My friends say I’m actin’ wild as a bug
I’m in love
I’m all shook up
Hmm, ooh, yeah, yeah, yeah

Elvis Presley

I am fascinated by World Politics but am not even remotely qualified to comment apart from the ‘bleeding‘ obvious, it is all shook up , at least in the Western Democracies . I am fascinated by the party market, remain unqualified but have at least enough years within the market, feel I can have a vaguely qualified opinion. For those who don’t know, I am not referring to THE Party market, in terms of having an apparently great time , throwing vast quantities of alcohol down your throat , a quantity of ‘Party?’ drugs, playing monotonous music and in some cases hours and hours of sex ! Well that’s what I have been told. I mean balloons, fancy dress, and party decorations. Sex and drugs maybe involved but not within the Retail Market place. I think? That said I am a bit like the Drug dealer who says…..

Never touch ’em meself. I just sell ‘em .

Or at least those I watch on telly say that! I don’t go to parties but I sell the stuff that is used to create a party atmosphere.

When £70 million plus is spent on Glastonbury Festival tickets, in a matter of hours after the official web site opened for 2024, the Party market is struggling to find consumers who will spend any money to have a party at home . This is not a UK problem , I know for certain this is a world wide malaise.

Within the last 2 months, 3 of the leading brands have encountered severe financial issues. Smiffys, Amscan and Qualatex (Qualatex in North America problems started over 18 months ago) the three leading brands in Dress Up, Party and Balloons, are in the process of being restructured in one way or another. How and why has this all happened in such a short period and at virtually the same time ?

Traditionally the Party market has always weathered Economic downturns . I can remember quite clearly that during poor economic climates in recent decades it has stood up well and in some cases flourished. The consumer whilst strapped for cash, stopped going out or having celebrations in third party locations stayed at home and spent what they had on making the home party, the fun place .

So what is different? A maelstrom! I am averse to hyperbole but I think in terms of context , it is not hyperbolic. It is, if nothing else, a perfect storm and below I have bullet pointed in no particular order my reasoning. I will, then, qualify them in a little detail . All of these I believe are relevant in Europe but what I can gather is it also true of most consumer based societies.

-Covid

-Cost of living

-Change in consumer behaviour

-The Chinese

-Market Changes

Covid

Covid has been used as answer for a whole load of stuff. However, there is a lot of validity in many of the rational, massive change in consumer behaviour, supply disruptions, peaks and troughs in demand. Some of those peaks being slightly false because they were magnified by shortages of product . All the many implications highlighted long standing weakness in the supply chain.

Cost of Living

Without doubt has had a huge impact over the last 12 months. It may seem a little supercilious to say Why? As it is blindingly obvious. Yet it is not as simple,as above, in previous recessions party has faired well. The next 3 points have a lot to say about Why?

Change in Consumer Behaviour

Covid has had a major influence on consumer behaviour. I don’t really think anyone knows quite what those changes are. However, one very obvious change and example within the party market was the use and consumption of balloons (especially Latex) . It created a huge boom (more bubble in my view). Consumers being at home watched loads of youtube videos on stuff like Balloon Decorating and wanted to get in on the act whether for personal amusement or for starting a business. There was plenty of online information on how to do this and for a start up business it was very inexpensive to get set up. And set up they did, in their droves.

Going from the market being starved of product , the market is now over supplied and many of those who started small decorating business have discovered it was not quite as easy as they thought and it certainly was not as profitable.

This, however , is only one example, there are many others , yet for the most part, and I repeat, none of us know as to what they are .

Part of this change maybe along the lines of an article I have just read concerning Treatonomics . This, according to some journalists in the UK Times Newspaper, is where those on a reasonable income , but have little disposable income splash out on having fun. Generally involving going to some event or other. It has come to light when Barclays Bank has estimated that the recent Taylor Swift Tour in the U.K generated over £1 billion in additional(not including Swifts own take) revenue. This is just not ticket revenue, but hotel, travelling, eating out , drinks and everything else involved on going to a major concert. It has a term , yes, you are quite right, swiftonomics. It is not only confined to the UK as most other cities where she has performed are recording a similar impact. Moreover, some heads of state are asking for her to perform in their countries. Chile was very peeved as she decided on Argentina and Brazil . ‘What about the Chilean swifties?‘

The Chinese

This is not about the current concerns among Western Governments’ security concerns, or a poke at he national identity of the Chinese nation it is rather more direct and obvious.

As a market place we have just about got our heads around Amazon & eBay . Both heavily laden with Chinese Product. But it has not stopped there. We, the party market, have the likes of Themu, Shein, Aliexpress (Thanks David Beckham -see TV ads) to contend with. It would be very naïve to think that these have not sucked a load of consumer demand away from the traditional supply chain. Within that chain I would include home grown B2C webshop buying from local suppliers as well as market place sellers and Independent Party Retailers.

Market Changes

Prior to 2020 there were indications of market changes. For example within Party dress up, there was a consumer move away from full costumes to dress up accessories. Certainly in Europe, the costume market had peaked and was at a plateau. Within the general party market , which had developed enormously over the last twenty years, there was a feeling that it had a come to a standstill. I couldn’t count the number of customers who said ‘we need something new’. Of course there was and is a lot of new product but general it is always a variation upon on a theme. The consumer has or is changing and we have not been changing enough within the market supply chain . Circumstances now tell us we have to.

So why have 3 major brands all gone down at the same time? Is the market over supplied? Probably. A big problem within a relatively small market ( it is not mobile phones, cars, or fashion . We are talking about occasional purchases generally of lowish value) is that when a Brand dominates a market, it is difficult to achieve growth. As a consequence I believe some of the bigger players have made errors in their operations because they were striving for double digit growth or at very least market domination. If you supply all the major outlets in your market place where are you going next ? Just as significant is if you loose a major player or have your range reduced, how do you replace it ? I can only speak in terms of the UK but I am pretty sure it holds true in Europe, that the majors are supplied on a much reduced margins. If that were the case in many cases it would only act as contribution to overheads, losing that business means no contribution to overheads. Where do you go to replace this business when you are a Brand leader? An oversimplification perhaps, but it illustrates some of the problems facing big brands. What are the options ? Less turnover bigger margins. Old saying…..

‘Turnover for vanity, profit for sanity’.

But that, of course, is only part of the problem. There are other structural issues that are not easy to quantify and certainly not in a short blog. Whatever, the case the failing of major brands, it is not good for anyone. It is not good for employees, it is not good for the market in general as it creates uncertainty, at a time where there is already much uncertainty and it is not good for all the suppliers of these brands as they loose major customers, monies owed and most probably losses on existing deliveries much of which can not be diverted elsewhere. I know the latter to be true as having been contacted by a couple of such suppliers. Also it possibly leads to a short term influx of cut price merchandise . This may sound great to some , but is just one more destabiliser and devalues the stock already within the chain.

In the medium to long term the market will stabilise and the existing supply chain will learn from past mistakes and truly take stock of what the market needs and how it will operate . I am still very positive about the future of the Party Market going forward. I think it will come out of it much cleaner, more efficient and greater understanding of how the market will be in the coming years.

Why the Elvis song ? Well the title works , the image perhaps not, the lyrics definitely not but for those who don’t know, the owner of the new Smiffys, owns Graceland !

Whose the Party Pooper…?

Posted on by markybrett

Reader Warning !

For those who may be offended by the intrigues, complexities, dark arts, hidden secrets, and just sheer audacity that go to the extremities of the Party market , should , perhaps look away. Read no further . Hide behind the latest Stephen King, some Shakespeare or maybe Jean Paul Sartre. This may not be for you .

And for those whose first language is not English …Party Pooper is someone who ruins a happy occasion .

This is a return to the roots of the Blog Title thepartyblog.org .

The party market has always been dynamic. Or rather in the last 10-15 years it has. Prior to that it would be difficult to argue . Much has happened during the pandemic ,some of which was happening already but was rapidly accelerated by the events of the last two years.

To avoid confusing myself ,I shall divide the market into 2. Decoration, including Balloons and Dress Up.

Decoration

It might seem to be stating the blindingly obvious, but Covid was a game changer. Yes, of course it was , but not ,perhaps, in the way that most think. There were changes afoot in the way the UK consumer approached decorating for parties for a number of years but after the first few raw weeks of lock down in April 2020 ,this went into overdrive. Well summarised by an Observer(UK Sunday Newspaper) Journalist …

You might think Covid – no parties (except in Downing Street), no proms, no fun at all – would have popped the balloon bubble. Quite the contrary. As Kasiri says: “People were still pregnant, they were still having birthdays, baby showers… although they didn’t invite guests, they still wanted a backdrop so people could attend on Zoom or pop into the garden.” Elari pivoted to contactless deliveries of bike-sized backdrops, as a balloon arrangement became the consolation prize; a cheer-up for a cancelled celebration rather than the inflatable icing on the cake.

Emma Beddington -Observer 10th April 2022

I believe that, initially, this was very much a UK trend. It was not confined to Balloons as the consumer decided that if they could not go out for their celebration they would make very best of it at home and as it was very adult centric , the results were often quite stunning . Emma Beddington puts it quite succinctly….

Animal sculptures are Old Balloon, along with the traditional packet of primary-coloured ovals, effortfully inflated and tied by apprehensive parents, pre-party, and just sort of tossed on the floor, perhaps rubbing one against a jumper to perform the never-not-funny static hair trick on a nearby child or tying a couple to the door knocker with string. Also Old Balloon: a single, or small bunch of foil “birthday girl”, “18 today” or L-plate helium-filled ones, dragged round streets and into bars, bobbing chaotically in the wake of a group of lairy revellers, eventually abandoned in a club queue, floating up, up and away.

Today it is more about design , creativity and impact.

Now Party Decoration , at home or somewhere outside the home, has taken on a different meaning. This provides a challenge for Retailers, whether online or on Street. It is essential to keep a very close eye on trends . It is no longer enough to rely on your suppliers to tell what are their top best selling items as today’s best sellers are very unlikely to be tomorrow’s . Although it pains me to say this, but what the Kardashians do today , millions try tomorrow.

This has created an retail environment of opportunity. Not to say there will not be challenges . However, the days of filling your store with product, open the doors and let the punters pore in are over. Though in reality, it was never quite like that anyway but the consumer will expect more in terms of the retail experience. They will want to see new innovations , ideas, product and retail colleagues who can help them achieve the party atmosphere they want to create . It will no longer be sufficient to refresh your product ranges once a year (some retailers don’t even do that ) . Speak with your suppliers, talk with your customers, look at social media These are opportunities that the supermarket or discount chains cannot access and are very difficult for websites of any format difficult to gain any traction.

As a footnote , here is a fairly eyepopping figure from the Observer, although a source is not declared. Nevertheless it is fairly impressive…..

the global balloon market is big business: it was valued at $647.3m in 2020 and is predicted to grow at an average of 4.2% until 2026.

Dress Up

The costume and dress up market has been undergoing change for, probably, the last five or six years. It is widely considered that the market (throughout most of Europe ) in costumes has plateaued and possibly is in a slight decline. Throughout the pandemic it was virtually none existent . The opportunity to wear fancy dress simply did not exist . No hospitality, no parties, no travel, no sporting events, no festivals. All, of which are major dress up opportunities. But, Covid aside, there was a move away from buying what is basically an one off purchase . That is to say if you buy a Roman Gladiator costume, you only really wear it, if you are going to be a Roman Gladiator.

Jumpy People or Kangaroos? Any other ideas -Boland Kangaroo Onesies

During the pandemic there was a uptick in accessorization ie the use of wigs, beards, glasses, anything to enhance the atmosphere with the temporary trend of Zoom Parties. But again it just nudged on an existing trend whereby using accessories , the consumer found the ability to adapt product they bought for one occasion they could use for another . Moreover, it once again it encouraged creativity as a daft hat or wig could be used with your every day clothes or other items. Pre-Covid this was a trend very evident in recent Halloween themes. Wear a Pirates hat and beard at same time as wearing Devils Wings and fake blood . This will continue and develop. Initially online and High Street Party retailers did not like this as they were losing a single sale of £30-£40 plus and have to make several sales in accessories to make up the lost revenue. Then they started to realise, although more work was involved the margins were much better and there was less competition from the Supermarkets, and discounters as they are unable to offer the extensive accessory ranges you need to make this work.

So who are the Party Poopers? No, not the party loving UK Prime Minister. Covid, disrupted supply chains , Russian Invaders, fuel costs and inflation. Each and everyone is interlinked in some way or another. Covid is continuing as a major problem primarily due to the way the Chinese Government is handling the problem in China. The locking down of major conurbations fundamentally mean that many factories of all shapes and sizes and not operating. Compounded by the Chinese Government limiting energy supplies to certain manufacturing areas. Rampant world wide inflation will put a damper on consumer spending. So it is not a good look and these disruptions are here for some time . However, I am reasonably optimistic. The Party market often does well when there are major economic pressures. The Retail price points are such that whilst the consumer may think twice about having a lavish celebration in a third party environment they will spend on ensuring that celebration at home is made all that bit more special . Lockdowns highlighted this pattern and I believe it has created an awareness with the consumer that will persist and grow. But the retailers, of all types ( and suppliers) will have to work for it.

To conclude with a riposte to all Party Poopers …..

“Nobody can be uncheered with a balloon.”

A.A Milne -Winnie The Pooh