Tag: data

Stats, Numbers, forecasts…Where do you get your’s from?…

Posted on by markybrett

There is an old traditional party game in the UK called Stick the Tail on the Donkey. Quite simple, you have a tail and you have to attach it to the Donkey in its appropriate location (we are not talking real donkeys here) . The complication lies in that the person with the tail is blindfolded.

A blindfolded man holds a tail while laughing, as a blindfolded woman affixes a paper piece to a cartoon donkey on a wall in a modern office setting.

Online retail penetration in the UK has been increasing since the beginning of the year, settling at 27.8% in June, according to ONS. Clothing & Footwear accounts for the largest share of online sales (27.6%), while non-food goods represent 24.3%.-CBRE

Retail sales per occupied square foot reached a record £61.92 in the second quarter of 2026 up 23% from £50.39 in the final quarter of 2019……retailers are generating significantly more sales from the same amount of shop space ,even as online shopping remains important –The Times- Isabella Fish August 2026

Both statements are correct but paint a different picture.

US inflation stays stable as Fed expected to hold rates -The Times – 27th August 2026

Warsh puts US on alert for Rate Rise – The Times -29th August 2026

UK economic growth — 0.9%, 1.0%, 1.2%… depending on who you ask.

Organisation2026 UK GDP growth forecast
OECD, June 20260.9%
IMF, 2026 projection1.0%
Reuters economist consensus, Aug 20261.1%
Current market/analyst expectationsaround 1.1–1.2%

The difference between 0.9% and 1.2% does not seem a great deal but for the UK economy the difference ie 0.3% equals apporximately £9 billion.

The following table I have taken from asking ChatGPT :

SubjectOrganisation AOrganisation B / later figureDifferenceWhy it differs
1🇬🇧 UK GDP growth 2026OBR: 1.1%IMF: 1.0%0.1 ppDifferent forecasting dates/assumptions
2🇬🇧 UK GDP growth 2026Bank of England: 0.9%OBR: 1.1%0.2 ppDifferent models/assumptions
3🇬🇧 UK inflation 2026OBR: 2.3%IMF: 3.2%0.9 ppVery different assumptions about inflation/energy
4🇬🇧 UK migrationONS: -17,000Revised ONS: -114,00097,000 peopleONS changed methodology
5🇬🇧 UK productivityONS LFS measure: +2.3%ONS RTI measure: +4.2%1.9 ppCompletely different data sources
6🇬🇧 UK public borrowingONS: £129bnOBR forecast: £132.7bn£3.7bnForecast vs emerging actual
7🇬🇧 UK GDPONS early estimateLater revised estimate~0.1 pp per quarterNational accounts are revised
8🇺🇸 US GDP Q2 2026Atlanta Fed GDPNow: 1.5–1.7%BEA: 1.5%Small by final estimateNowcast changes as data arrives
9🇺🇸 US GDP 2026OECD: ~2.0%IMF: 2.4%0.4 ppDifferent economic models
10🇺🇸 US GDPFed median: 2.2%IMF: 2.4%0.2 ppDifferent assumptions
11🇺🇸 US employmentPayroll survey says jobs growingHousehold survey: 1.37m fewer employed in 2026HugeThey measure different things
12🇺🇸 US employmentBLS original estimateBLS benchmark revision: -79,000 jobs79,000Administrative data subsequently available
13🇪🇺 Eurozone GDP 2026ECB: 0.8%IMF: 1.1%0.3 ppDifferent assumptions/dates
14🇪🇺 Eurozone inflation 2026ECB: 3.0%OECD: 2.8%0.2 ppDifferent forecasts
15🇪🇺 Eurozone inflationECB baseline: 3.0%ECB severe scenario: 4.0%1.0 ppSame organisation, different assumptions

The exercise , in itself , I find of significance as we are now asking a third party to look at the same data. In this case the original sources are highlighted as are the reason for variations. Hence relatively easy to check and verify. You would think.

Perhaps an even more significant statistic concerning UK productivity since 2019 .One measure puts it at 4.3% another 2.9%.

The UK statistics authority has ordered the Office for National Statistics to take urgent steps within the next four weeks to “restore confidence” in its data after a catalogue of failings.

The head of the House of Commons Treasury committee, meanwhile, has warned that key economic decisions risk being “built on sand” due to a lack of trust in official data produced by the Office for National Statistics. The Times 12th August 2026

This is all very technical stuff and does not affect us. Or rather it does but we have little control of these numbers and what we do with them . We have to rely on Governments to use their infinite lack of wisdom in how they are used and interpretated. In their defence they have to rely on statistical forecasts to develop policy good or bad. Small variances have huge impacts.

August 2026 -Lloyds(UK’s largest mortgage lender) House prices fell 0.6%- August 2026 Santader House Prices rose 1.6%

That’s all super fancy stuff, which whilst hugely important has no real connection to those who matter most …Ordinary people. A number which is very relevant to everyday life but often misunderstood and that is inflation . A headline figure is announced for a period ( generally a month in most economies) let us say it is 4%. Three months later the Government ( in the case of the UK the Bank of England) announces it has fallen to 2% . Wow, Great, Super, aren’t we great …. says the Government of the day believing that the general populace will perceive prices have fallen, as opposed to prices still rising only a touch slower and that they have risen 2% on top of the 4% . I know it is not a straight 4+2 but thats another numbers game. Plus consider there are two measures of Infaltion in the UK, RPI and CPI (there is another variation CPIH which is similar to RPI.). Are we still all here ?

A few everyday numbers that would confuse Martians(and others):

  • Technically a football match is a game of 2 x 45 minute halves. It very rarely is.
  • In cricket there are 6 balls in every over, unless there 7 or maybe 8 in extreme 9 (wides, no balls etc) . That confuses most earthlings who dont understand cricket , which is most earthlings.
  • Does anyone really understand APR ?
  • Pi- this may not be true, Martians may understand Pi.
  • Car manufacturers fuel/Electric consumption claims.
  • Why do Americans weigh things in Cups ?
  • The human body contains approximately 60,000 (100,000 km) miles of veins,capillaries and arteries.
  • Averages. The problem with an average is that it can be very misleading. For example, if you have a group of 6 children, three are 2 years old and three are 10 years old , the average would be 6 . Yet there are no 6 year olds in the group.
  • BMI – a very poor use of averages. Martians do understand this as they are very thin but incredibly dense enabling them to remain grounded even in the most hostile of antigravitational environments
  • FTP – Functional threshold power. The measurement of power generated by a cyclist
  • Add 0 to a number and the number remains the same ie 0+1=1. Multiple 1 by 0 and 1 disappears

A Very Thin Martian with High BMI

It is very easy to write a ad infinitum about numbers. It is also very easy just to copy and paste relevant and not so relevant book loads of extraordinary stats. But that is not the point, plus it would be very boring. It would also be very easy to quote clearly false and completley fake numbers, as oft quoted by our World Leader of renown and apparently (according to him) extraordinary high IQ, and by others who should know better.

The point (or at least my point) is that everything around us including nature,is affected by numbers and more importantly mathematics (which of course is jsut numbers all jumbeld so most of us cannot understand them).

Concentric Circles in Nature:

Concentric means the circles all share the same center, but have different radii. This means the circles are all different sizes, one inside the other.A common example is in the ripples of a pond when something hits the surface of the water. But we also see concentric circles in the layers of an onion and the rings of trees that form as it grows and ages. mathgeekmama.com

Concentric Circles in Timber

Yet to most of us numbers are confusing at best and completely misunderstood at worst. The numbers are often correct but they are easily misinterpreted or misleading. Julia(my wife) has a form of Dyscalculia. She can add, she can muliply and divide , but when asked to do all three even with a relatively simple string of numbers, she gets panicky .

Every which way, all major organisations, private and public are driven by numbers. Small inaccuracies, or very minor miscalculations at that level have huge consequences. For the individual, even small numbers eg 0.025% can impact big time on your metaphoric wallet when looking at your mortgage statement.

As individuals, frequently there are those that read numbers and stats through rather foggy lenses. They are happy to accept official numbers when they align with their beliefs but choose to ignore or quote the infamous ‘fake news’ when they don’t.

Many go through life afraid of numbers and upset by numbers. They would rather amble along through life miscounting, miscalculating and, in general, mismanaging their worldly affairs than make friends with numbers.

— Shakuntala Devi-Popularly known as the ‘Human Computer’

“A good decision is based on knowledge, and not on numbers.” ~ Plato

Two very different views on numbers. For those that have not heard of Shakuntala Devi. Amongst her many achievements was calculating 23rd root of a 201-digit number in 50 seconds. It took the US Bureau of Standards Computer (with a specailly written program) 62 seconds to verify. Apparently she had no formal education.

Clearly numbers and stats are not only fundamental to life on earth they are critical . What we aren’t very good at is being critical in our analysis as to what the number (or stat) actually means and where that data comes from.

I have probably ‘over quoted‘ as it can be quite annoying and a little lack of imagination and lazy by the author (me) but I came across this one by a Principal Researcher at Mircosoft and it sort of sums up where are and that our interpretations sometimes equate to thinking that a Donkey can grow a tail anywhere on its body.

Data and data sets are not objective; they are creations of human design. We give numbers their voice, draw inferences from them, and define their meaning through our interpretations.

— Kate Crawford

Start Listening !

Posted on by markybrett

We are all guilty.

No matter how much we think we do, it’s never enough.

Wherever you are in the supply chain, no matter what market you are in, we don’t always listen to our customers or suppliers’ Of course this does not always relate to our commercial lives, it is, invariably, true of our personal relationships . However, whilst I can’t profess to be a specialist in any field I am most definitely not one when it comes to personal advice.

2023 is going to be a challenging year with many hurdles. We all need to be on top of our game which not only means listening to the level below i.e. the customer but also with the level above i.e. the supplier . We may not like what we hear . We may disagree with what we hear . The key is to hear what is being said and then to evaluate whether/what action is needed .

So it came as no surprise shortly after Christmas , The Times reported research (on New Year celebrations ) carried out by John Lewis from their website that searches for the word bunting were up by 40% and balloons by 140%. Whilst the John Lewis site does carry a few(about 10) of each item(most relate to birthday), if you look in most John Lewis stores you would be hard pushed to find any. Is that likely to change any time soon ? Probably not. But then John Lewis would not be a destination store for that type of product . But why then are they making a press release about it ?

Why, when they have a very similar target audience, are Wilko’s suffering, whilst Home & Bargain, B&M and Poundland are creaming it. May I suggest that they all have access to the same listening (consumer data) but it is how they have dealt with what they hear, that makes the ‘not’ inconsiderable difference.

It is not only about talking to your customers and hearing what they have to say , it’s talking to your suppliers , your competitors even. They may not always say what you want them to say, more often it is what they don’t say that is just as helpful. Visit Trade Exhibitions and see and hear what is happening within your industry. Read Trade Journals, albeit much of the content is very benign, nevertheless, I guarantee every so often there is something you would not already know.

There is a huge amount of data bombarding us on a daily basis. Much of it is just noise. But we cannot pretend it is not there, the skill is filtering the noise and to do this we need to listen.

There’s a lot of difference between listening and hearing

G.K.Chesterton

At a very recent trade show , I discovered, inadvertently that a product a customer of mine was seeking to import from the US was actually made 100 miles from him in the UK. He would no doubt have found out eventually, but it might have been a very expensive route. This came about from a very random conversation with an exhibitor who was displaying something very similar to the product my customer had told me about. An argument could be made that my customer should have found this out by listening. Can’t argue with that.

Another retailer being a little concerned about their poor level of business over the Christmas period and putting it down to general economic malaise, then discovered from other local traders that many of the locals in their area (it must be pointed out that the average consumer in this area is quite affluent and used to spending the summer in Tuscany!) had indeed decided to go away for an extended Christmas holiday.

True genius resides in the capacity for evaluation of uncertain, hazardous, and conflicting information

Winston Churchill

He doesn’t specifically talk about listening but that is what I take from the quote ( or at least in part).

42% of companies don’t survey their customers or collect feedback.

Hubspot Research

Ignore customers at your own peril

Back in the summer of 2011, Netflix ignored their customers by splitting its DVD and streaming businesses and effectively increasing prices by 40%. As a result, they lost a whopping 800,000 subscribers, their stock price fell to less than half its previous value, and the company became one of the 10 most hated companies in America.

Insider 2012

Not listening to your colleagues

The best example is from a Kodak engineer named Steven J. Sasson. He actually invented the first digital camera back in 1975. But his management did not take it seriously, it didn’t want to be associated with it. Kodak’s management failed to see digital photography as a disruptive technology because printed photos had been there for over 100 years, and who would want to see pictures on a television screen? At the same time, Kodak did not want to cannibalize its film roll business so it tried to keep the new technology under the radar.

Not listening to the consumer and the market place

BlackBerry believed too much in what they owned. The Customer experience is where BlackBerry turned out to be a laggard.

Both the above quotes come from http://www.togroundcontrol .com

The process of listening encompasses a whole gamut of activities. Be they visiting trade shows, attending conferences, speaking to friends, colleagues, customers , suppliers, associates , family, reading /listening to various media, being aware of what is happening on social media, especially, but not solely ,business sites like LinkedIn . There is a lot of guff in the latter two , but sometimes there are little gems .

There is an idiom in the English language “I’m all ears”. Not a great image as the guy below may testify but an imperative when trading in the current climate.

Big Ears, best friend of Noddy. For those who don’t know them, Shame on you -Google them! Big Ears listened to Noddy’s problems and helped him out a lot .

“Most of the successful people I’ve known are the ones who do more listening than talking.”

Bernard M. Baruch

There is one resource we all have in our Commercial Toolbox , the facility to listen. And it costs nothing. Not using it can cost an awful lot.

Do you eat too much Data?

Posted on by markybrett

Err Yes ….bit of a no brainier really. Or at very least it is for me. Only have to meet three people (data) ,and I would have forgotten the name of two within ten minutes . We are awash with it, data that is .

In any business we are constantly being told that the more information (for information read data , its the same thing) you obtain, the better you can operate your business. There is no doubt that there is an element of truth here, but only an element.

Ever since mankind decided it was jolly useful to write stuff down, we have collected data. How we used it depends on who you were or are. Historically the collection of data was rarely used for the general benefit of society. It was more about who or what you owned and just as important how you can increase your ownership and power structure. Many would say that little has changed.

Whatever the motivation data has become increasingly important to the point that it could argued that power wealth and data are inextricably linked . That said it can be argued that society has benefited from its use within areas such as health, education, technology and well being.

We are awash with it and half the time we don’t know what to do with it and the other half we think we do but we don’t really. I am not referring to those of us sat the bottom of the data strata, I am talking about the data giants, the Googles, Facebooks, Amazon et al. Here’s one of my favourites , or rather personal pet hates ( not ‘pet’ hates , as I love pets but ‘hates’ that I love the most ). The super companies who probably accrue more data together than the rest of the world intelligence services. I search for a new telly . I buy one. Meanwhile the cogs at google have been whizzing away saying that I am wildly interested in TV sets. and send me ads for the next six weeks. But I have bough one and you know that as well so what is the point in sucking loads of dosh from companies who are advertising to sell me one when I have already bough the bloody thing. Amazon admit to some sellers they struggle with the counterfeits as there is so much that goes through their market place. If they struggle what does any mortal company do about it.

Covid seems to be the perfect example of incremental amounts of data with bucket loads of organisations interpreting it all in widely different ways , leading to utter confusion and in many cases poorer decision making.

The above image replicates one of the more everyday, and simpler data overloads that many of us face everyday . Every item of data is most probably valid and legitimate but the method of portrayal, imagery and context is likely to lead to misunderstanding, poor decision making and ultimately much worse .

Some Completely Bonkers Data statistics

Here’s a very simple example I made up myself, which will seem obvious (that I made it up).

Man walks into jewellery shop and buys a very expensive piece . He does not speak to anyone or ask any questions , just takes it to the counter, pays for it then walks out .

That transaction is now a piece of data for that retailer. But what use is it ? What was the purpose of the purchase ?what is the customer profile ?

1. He bought it for his Wife

2. He bought it for his Mistress

3. He bought it for his Daughter

4. He is a cross dresser

The list is endless and without further data is really of no help to the retailer as to why certain purchases are made. Its very simple but by being very simple illustrates how very complex data can easily be misread if read at all.

Data accrues data. It feeds on itself . The more there is the more processes that are needed to make use of it and even to determine if its of any use. Worse still is bad data. The data on its own will not have any indicator that it is bad . It is its effect that makes it bad. Viruses are made from using bits of data albeit in a rather nasty way. Combatting bad data is more ‘good’ data.

In 2018 alone, the development of macOS malware tripled. As much as 250,000 new malicious programs are registered every single day, and there are grounds to assume this number will keep growing. A thorough analysis of scans performed by our users revealed that as much as 62% of Macs are infected with viruses (with an average of five infected files per user)

mackeepr.com

The flow is relentless and will only increase at an exponential rate . Mankind has becoming data obese. Obesity has many side effects . Data obesity has its own hunger and that is energy . It consumes vast quantities of energy . And this is only the beginning.

Bitcoin consumes a similar amount of power to the Netherlands

This suggests that whilst we may all be trying to reducing our energy consumption , data will be out there having an orgy of eating more energy . I am sure that tech guys will find ways of reducing this hungry beast, but they will need to ‘crunch’ a load more data to find the answers.

Most large organisations have CIO’s -Chief Information Officers who report to the CEO. They know the importance of data but whether they are able to really understand it remains to be seen . There have been too many events within the last 10-5 years when events that have occurred because previous data has been ignored or misinterpreted . The financial crisis for 2008 and many would say our current pandemic, are just two.

The obesity crisis in much of the West has been looming for some time (the data has been there). It can be resolved with education, government policy, time, and of course the will. I am not sure data obesity would be as easily solvable.

Data is crucial to every organisation and increasingly to the individual. What is overwhelmingly important is to the evaluation, sourcing, examination and decision making process involved with that analysis. Even within our own market place I have a seem an increasing number of players starting to use data analysis. My concern it is limited to what is happening today or yesterday but it is not very effective in determining what is likely to happen tomorrow .