Tag: partyretailers

2023…Could be a (or not so) Great Year ….?

Posted on by markybrett

My Customers will, soon, start asking me the perennial question…How do you think the new year will be? I am very succinct and precise. It could be good or bad. That’s it in a nutshell.

There is a footnote to this response that is not always obvious as depending who the customer is, I do not include this is in my ‘six word ‘ financial forecasts.

I am very clear in my own head ( as if anyone is any doubt ??)

  • I am not a financial analyst
  • I am not a retail analyst
  • I am not a market analyst
  • I am not an analyst

But I am frequently asked this question at the beginning of the year by customers, colleagues, Julia , A few friends ( very few that confined, in that I only have a few , very few. To extend my audience I have asked Aristotle ( our dog) and his canine response is I am only interested in three things …

  • Walking (currently it is -5 degrees but that doesn’t bother him )
  • Food
  • A massage

As long as my face and the sound of my voice assures him, that is the only interest he has in the coming year.

Stormy Monday Blues – T bone Walker -Lately Eric Clapton

There is undoubtedly a number of gloomy indicators out there , especially for the first three months.

Cost of energy,

continuing Ukraine crisis,

inflation,

interest rates ,

consumer confidence,

industrial unrest,

and a lot of uncertainty within the World at large.

Good day Sunshine -The Beatles

So what’s good about 2023

  • Inflation appears to be peaking and below what was forecasted
  • Interest rates whilst still rising are predicted to be well below original forecasts
  • Sterling has recovered some of its losses
  • Covid does not present the same barrier it has for the last 2 years
  • Fixed mortgage rates have reduced a little
  • The survey of 138 companies, including 50 retailers, found that a net balance of 11 per cent of businesses said sales grew, up from -19 per cent in November (CBI)
  • A Coronation (at least for the Party Sector in the U.K. )
  • Retail landlords are starting to become a little more realistic

This does not detract from it being potentially being very tough, but it should be put it into some of perspective. The total retail sales within the U.K. in 2021 were £421 billion . There were approximately 316,000 retail outlets. If retail sales fall by 3% that equals £12 billion . However, if we look it another way a consumer who had £100 in their pocket to spend freely may only have £97. If you extrapolate that further and look at the total U.K. spend on party (of which it is really difficult to find a true figure) even if was half of 1% of total retail spend which would be a gross over estimate , we are looking at targeting less than 50p of the consumer spend .

There will be many (gross exaggeration) readers who will say don’t be bloody stupid ….that’s only £30 million total party market. It is quite clearly many times that, but the principal is the same . Within our market place our target audience is a very small proportion of their overall disposable income. They will look to have a good time, which is why Glastonbury 2023 sold out in minutes despite the ticket price being £300 (220,000 x£300=£66 million pounds =One Event)

It is down to the entire chain no matter what market, to be creative, pro-active, positive, supportive and all aim for very slightly bigger slice of that £421 billion . The proverbial tills wont ring themselves .

Just to illustrate my analytical skills and give you all lot more confidence in what I write : In March 2020 my analysis of Covid was that it was a very bad cold and would be all over by September.

Twixt the optimist and pessimist
The difference is droll:
The optimist sees the doughnut
But the pessimist sees the hole.

McLandburgh Wilson b. 1892 author

Sex Toys……The Next Product coming to a Supermarket near you ?

Posted on by markybrett

Yes.

Well according to that august title Retail Gazette, there are a number of product categories that the High Street Majors are considering. Sex Toys, Vaping and Plant Based products are three of them . Covid tests, meal kits and Pick and Mix are the others.

As far as Sex Toys are concerned it has already happened as Tesco is rolling out a range in 250 stores.

Vaping, I would have thought they were a bit behind the eight ball on this one. Yes, the market is still growing . Currently in the U.K. the market is estimated at about £3 billion. However, according to some retailers I have spoken with, the consumer tends to shop seeking advice. Perhaps trying different flavours it doesn’t appear to be natural for supermarkets where they would not get the service levels that provide optimum experience.

Plant Based products is the grouping that is a tad amusing. A massive part of what they sell already are plant based. Like what are bananas, potatoes, cabbages, sprouts, and the entire fruit and veg sections if they are not plant based . Sure, I know that there are plant based burgers , ice cream, cakes, and whole gamut of imitation type products. But the reality is that chunks of standard Supermarket offerings are Plant based. It is a marketing hype and I am not convinced it is terribly helpful especially to those who are very wary of what they would describe as fads without realising they are probably eating a load of plants already. There is also a large junk of the population who would see the Category Plant Based and put two and two together ( making it five during the current inflationary cycle looks a bit conservative) and assume that it would be too expensive . That said, the cynic on my shoulder would point that this category would be more expensive and more profitable.

Supermarkets are notoriously slow in their buying decisions, waiting for range reviews before even considering new products. I would have thought the search of new products should come first and then decide when to have range review. Buying Departments within the multiples should be renamed Sourcing . Actually one has started to use that Description. When it comes to a Multiple looking at products that are outside of their core range they tend to take the line of least resistance. I could not count the number of times, when approached or having approached a Multiple retailer their first test is to match your prices against their incumbent supplier. If you don’t match they wont look. Or rather the reality is that if you are not lower they wont look. Not sure this is the most efficient way of keeping pace with the market. But not likely to see much change anytime soon. ! It is just very frustrating.

Covid testing is a difficult one. One half of me says they are just jumping on a band wagon, the other half says if you need a test quickly and are unsure how to get one but know that Tesco ( or any supermarket) do them , it would make that process a lot easier and probably quicker. At least they would have some credibility as opposed to some strange and distant Medical Company that you know nothing about , or worse still the Government . Great situation that, Who do we trust most ? The Government or a Supermarket ? Answers on a postcard.

Strangely, none of these items appear in Shopify’s product trending list for 2022. What is even stranger is that items appear in the Shopify list that are products the Supermarkets are kicking out, Books and CDs.

Extract from Shopify 2022 Product Trends

What was No 1 ? Books and E-Books. Now Shopify was highlighting trends based on Online selling (hence E Books). However , nowhere in their top 21 did any of the Product areas as detailed at the beginning of this post, appear . I am not suggesting that Multiples should be looking at LP’s but when you look at the numbers especially for CD’s (albeit from a very low level ) that there must be more interesting and healthier options than Vaping.

For the Good Independent Retailer out there , I think this is good news. But you have to be good. For so many years (within the Party sector) I have walked into Party Retailers and they have said oh, I can’t sell that sort of product as the supermarkets have killed it. I just can’t compete. They could and can. Most of them have gone now . I suggest that many had not actually looked in their local supermarket as they were usually poorly ranged and certainly offered no level of service .

So for those looking at a range of sex toys -go for it. If Tesco are giving it a level of respectability and no level of service, you are onto a winner .

The Power of Colours….Or is Beige really that Exciting ?

Posted on by markybrett

Julia is an Artist. I have spent the major part of my working life in the Party Industry. Anybody who may know me would not say I was someone really into Colour. Anybody who knows me well, would same exactly the same .

Yet…..On so many levels , I am mesmerised by colour. It plays such a monumental part in all our lives , eating, dressing, transport, health through fitness, travel, education to politics, science and religion. Colours are a predominate factor in all our lives, for good or bad .

It dresses you, envelopes you, invites you, beguiles, encourages, politicises, hurts, invigorates, creates, good or evil, you cannot avoid it.

Since I started posting I have assiduously avoided making any sales pitches. This once, I make no apology for a little pitch. Latex Occidental ( A Mexican Latex Balloon manufacturer – the largest in the World -Brand Globos Payaso) is kicking off 2022 with a programme called the The Power of Colours.

Initially, I thought Nice idea ….The more I thought about it , the stronger the phrase became until I thought that’s a great idea . I suspect we are all guilty for taking colours for granted . The concept is so much part of our daily lives that we rarely think about it in its entirety .

Courtesy GRAF1X.com

Party Product is all about Colour. It may seem strange but there was a time when most disposable tableware was white and white only . Latex balloon manufacturers may have made maybe ten, tops twelve colours. Foil balloon makers started with silver only (came from the base colour of Mylar- I think). Drinking straws where white . Now, Colour is (obviously to some) party paramount. There are loads of influences, the fashion industry, home decor but much of what happens today , within our market comes from Social Media. This has a huge impact especially within areas such as party decor and balloon decoration. During the last two years, colours that have often lay dormant within suppliers warehouses suddenly burst into favour. When asked what was trending in their area, one of my very knowledgeable clients responded succinctly ….

Various shades of poo !

As a consequence……

Beige came of Age !

Me 😁 January 2022

Everything that you can see in the world around you presents itself to your eyes only as an an arrangement of different colours

John Ruskin

Colours express the main psychic functions of man

Carl Jung

The Pantone Institute, the ‘go to’ organisation for world wide colour specifications since the early 1960’s , forecast the ‘colour of the year’ . This process is carried out by bringing together colour specialists from throughout the world as to what they think will be the trend for the coming year . 2022 it is Very Peri. A colour specifically invented and inspired from A Happy Periwinkle. Or in a more simplistic manner,is a new shade of Blue.

Within the Party Market, we are very fortunate in being immersed in the world of colour. It has spawned a wealth of creativity, especially within the world of Balloon Decorating. At the very same time, more especially over the last 2 years, there is much heightened consumer awareness of the vast number of colour combinations available. It is generally accepted that there are about 10 million colours that the human eye can detect . That’s a heck of a lot (in this case heck is a lot bigger than vast) of possible combinations.

Courtesy of Latex Occidental (Globos Payaso) -Susana Guerrero

Despite the all pervasiveness of colour there has been little scientific research into its impacts. Or rather there has been quite a bit but little agreement. Aristotle (not our dog in this instance) made the first acknowledgment of colour , however his conclusion was that colour derived from God. White being good and black evil. I think whatever your belief you would comfortably find the problem with that thesis .

Sir Isaac Newton, by analysing sunlight through prisms isolated the colours of the rainbow. Which is a bit handy as the following possibility, would made the world a very different place ..

…if the Sun’s Light consisted of but one sort of Rays, there would be but one Colour in the whole World…

Sir Isaac Newton -Optics

Which conclusively illustrates that Beige is incredibly exciting …..

For those of us, albeit in a very small way, who have the opportunity to influence the use of colour in their working practices, should think about phrase of the power of colours, as apposed to the use of colours. Many probably do it anyway without actually saying it. Like many things saying it out aloud often gives it a stronger impact . But I still be wary about shouting out that beige is exciting ….

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly….

Posted on by markybrett

Bad – I don’t do . Well at least I try not to , that said I do like Breaking bad (probably one of the best TV progs). I do Bad Hair days. I do like some sweets . Bad is the German and Dutch for Bath, and I do like a bath.

Ugly– I don’t do. Or rather I do, when I shave or brush my teeth, but the mirror tells me that’s enough Ugly for anyone. And I do like Potato Chips and Fries.

Good – Now I am not sure I do much good, and I don’t much like Brown Rice and Dark Rye but Good is not about me. It is about Retail, and in particular ‘Party Retailers’.

I, we (depending on who is reading this and in which country) are very fortunate to have some very good retailers. There are , of course, there are those that fall into the ‘Bad’ category but they will not be around for much longer. Certainly among my customer base they are ‘Good’. It is not that they are just Good Retailers, they are Good people. This, to some, may seem like gushing, corny drivel. But I feel that you have to be a Good person because without that you can’t be a Good Party Retailer.

If you are Butcher, serving an excellent range of tasty meat you can be a miserable git and still survive. There is one local to us , always busy.

If you are a clothes shop and you have a terrific range of on trend product great prices, your business will tolerate ‘They are really snooty in that shop, but they have some great stuff ‘ remarks and still make money. Been in quite a few.

If you are a Bookshop, as long as you have a great range and you are very knowledgeable, you can sit in a corner and hide (our experience of a lot of book shops).

A Party Shop is different. You have to engage , inform and in many cases empathize. I believe it is very difficult to truly emphasize, without being a ‘Good’ Person. Let me be quite clear , before you walk into your local Party Retailer and expect to find A Relationship Counsellor, you might, but don’t expect it. What I think you will find or rather if you have a Good Party Retailer is someone who will understand your needs, ask the right questions, and how to fulfill them. Now, hold back, I can hear the odd brain going into overdrive lead by one of two thoughts

For crissake, this is a bloody party retailer you’re talking about !

or

For crissake, I have been paying a fortune trying to find out about my needs and and all I had to do was go to my local party shop. There isn’t one, where do I find one ?

What the Good Party Retailer does is listen to what you want, ask you the right questions and then shows you how that can be achieved . They, also understand the emotion that can go with special events , be it weddings, first birthdays, 90th Birthdays, Anniversaries, Graduations , Welcome Home, or any of the myriad of reasons you are having a party. In most case it will involve having fun , but that fun must reflect the occasion. When they get it right that experience heightens and intensifies the emotional sentiments attached to the event.

I believe that emotion remains in the subconscious of the consumer. Before I hear the shout of Cobblers (English colloquial for Rubbish), the emotional impact of these special events, because of the rational for their being associated with close family or close friends , is very powerful. There is a very strong likelihood that they will return and they will recommend. You don’t and never will get this service from online operators (AI or no AI) nor multiple retailers.

Where did I get this blinding flash of enlightenment ? As lockdown eased , and I was able to go (albeit masked up ) and start visiting retail clients, I kept thinking what a Good (without being over the top I ,probably thought Nice but hate using that word as it doesn’t do the job properly ) person(s) that was . Then, I thought and they are bloody good party retailers.

Perhaps I should have another go at Brown Rice and Rye Bread…..but life is so very short .

Why don’t we ‘Party in Chains‘ like the rest of the World?

Posted on by markybrett
Yes, another unashamed bit of Product Placement

Perhaps the Brits are prudish, a bit reserved , not sure what is involved, think its a bit continental, and we get drunk too quickly.

Now I know the odd non U.K. citizen who may read this, says I know you brits like having a good time and dressing up in chains but that is not the point . Is it more to do with High Street rents, cost of operation, and too much online competition ? Quite simply a Chain of Party Shops does not exist in the UK and it has puzzled me for some time.

Oddly, Covid has helped with my enlightenment. For many years, the U.K. has been considered one the major markets for party products outside North America. Of course part of Northern Europe has ‘Carnival’, Many Spanish speaking nations have some form of Fiesta, Italy has Carnivals and Fiestas , the Brits have long been a nation using any good excuse for a Party.

That all said, the biggest Chain, in the U.K., was never bigger than 5 stores. Several years ago the American franchise chain Partyland established 12 branches, there are now 0. the remains of Partyland became Pure Party which was subsidiary of the Card shop chain Birthdays. I think at it is peak the Pure Party chain was over 40 stores. Unfortunately they were run like card shops. Both have long gone.

In France there are various chains with 20+, in Spain Party Fiesta has 130 (not all in Spain), and Germany with the likes of Karnevalswierts with 10 (1 in Holland) and Dieters with over 30. Needless to say the largest is in North America, Party City with the best part of 1000 stores. In the UK there have attempts by large multiples to try add on ‘party sections’ but all have failed through lack of sales per square foot. I have to add a small footnote here, there is one such operation in the U.K which is within a supermarket chain but from all accounts it is under constant review.

Enlightenment came via Covid lock-down. There are of course major structural issues ,which as already stated, focus heavily on operational costs being especially high in the UK for a retailer of any type, in addition to the effectiveness and impact of UK online operators. What I saw during lock-down and the eventual opening of retail early July was the split between those that had an alternative during lock-down and those that did not. Moreover, the successful operators, generally had a good relationship with their local community and were active on social media.

The common factors did not stop there. On the whole the successful retailers were family owned and run, and were single unit stores. The final piece of the puzzle was that they had a strong Balloon Business.

On the surface there is nothing there, which could not be replicated in multiple locations. Except the ownership, Family owned or single owner operated. It is very evident there is a strong connection between those single owner or family owner operated stores as against multiple stores. If this connection with the community is maintained and nurtured it becomes an integral part of the business. This is really difficult to do within a chain.

So why did lock down become a source of enlightenment ? From hearing some many stories from retailers about how they were pestered (not in a nasty way) by local customers as to when are you opening up…or can we get x,y & z from you somehow. None of this relationship came about because of lock down but highlighted what was already there . The local independent Party Retailer, is a bit like your favourite local Italian restaurant. When the owner goes home to Italy in the summer , the restaurant is never quite the same, until their return. Depending upon the location, the independent party retailers I know ,generally only go away when their locals go away.

For those of you not involved in the Party retailing, and are wondering about this mystique . Thinking Look I run a chain of card/grocery/shoe shops, it is all about good customer service, good management, good staff training… Stop there. Your staff don’t have to get up at 4 0’Clock on a Sunday morning to prepare for someone’s special event that very day . Get it all sorted then drive to wherever it is, lay it all out before the rest of the world has had breakfast. Then, perhaps later that day you might have to go back to collect some of the kit involved . The retort could be our family runs a very successful chain… Yes but your family(or single owner) is not in every store and this is the big difference with the successful Party Store. They have to be .

Yes, you can train teams to do that . But here’s the rub you could not afford to pay them or at least you could not afford to pay them at a rate that would make it the project profitable. The magic word being profitable. It is only profitable if it is you doing it. And yes, you are correct , it is not costed correctly. But that’s where the single ‘independent/ family owner’ comes into play. They need to make a living but profit is not the sole motivation, or even the main driving force.

That, in my opinion, is why there are no real chains and there are not likely to be in the near future unless the structure of the market changes dramatically. I, just, don’t see it happening anytime soon.

The Resilience of the Humble Toy Balloon….

Posted on by markybrett

Lord and Lady Latex, are titles that have not been bequeathed by Political benefactors, or an obsequious senior Civil Servant but by a friend who has also spent much of their working life within the same industry, and felt that for most of the time he had known Julia and I, we were flogging the odd latex balloon or two. The emphasis being on latex , which is also relevant to the context of this post.

I need to indulge a little and talk briefly about my working past as it will , hopefully, help to illustrate what I am going to say.

Travel back a long way, to a time when Mylar (foil) balloons did not exist , before Balloon Decorating started , pre huge colour ranges, and multiple sizes, to a time when the humble Toy Balloon was considered thus… Just a Toy. I was brought up with them. I was surrounded by them , not literally as I rarely saw one in my youth,almost certainly never in the house, but metaphorically. My parents lived and died Latex Balloons. Sounds quite odd and dark, but it is a lot simpler than that. They were involved in the manufacturing and selling of ‘Toy Balloons’. They was wat put bread on plate , wood in fire and roof over ‘ead…as Dickens may have said but didn’t, unless he had spent a lot of time in Yorkshire and didn’t tell anyone.

Even before working in the business I was often taken to trade fairs (oh yes that was a proper holiday). I participated in the Nuremberg Toy Fair before I left school. What I am trying to say is that I have experienced many an economic cycle and a myriad of unfortunate events that would have otherwise destroyed the market for lesser product.

From the miners strike in the early seventies, the oil crisis mid seventies, and rampant inflation(edging to 26%)recession in the early eighties, recession in the nineties, to the banking crisis and finally our present covid conditions, nothing has dampened the demand for the humble latex balloon. During the Oil crisis in the mid seventies in the UK , there was a three day working week. I can very clearly remember at the years first trade show everyone doubling their orders. During massive inflation , having to increase our prices by over 20% being told by customers they wanted a bigger increase(not really anything to do with the demand for balloons , a rather nuanced commercial input. However, the customer was not concerned that it would stop the consumer buying). The vicious nasty little bug that cowers all before it cannot dampen the enthusiasm for the The Toy Balloon. I would go as far as to say it has only increased it. During this crisis, it would not be out of order to add it to the list(at least in the UK) of toilet rolls, pasta, bicycles, and puppies . Once again it defies all expectations.

In The early Nineties this crept back up to 15%…

Now , I must wave a red flag to any Lockdown Entrepreneurs who are thinking …aah hah There’s a few bob to be made here ….the market is not short of supply . There are plenty of manufacturers and the market is very aggressive. By dint of the product’s durability, it has already gone the distance of attracting entrepreneurs . So back off!

The latex balloon is no longer just a Toy. It is a product with many homes, backgrounds to corporate events , decorating major sporting occasions , weddings, key celebrations, lifestyle enhancer…..the list goes on. Take a peek on Instagram and Pinterest to see how balloons are used now. Consequently, especially in the UK you would rarely find Latex balloons on sale in a Toy Shop. This differs to a degree in the rest of Europe. Twenty five years ago, the go to retail outlet for the humble balloon was a toy shop, but ironically it got too complicated for the toy industry . Ranges grew like Topsy and I think they took the view that to do it properly took too much space. And they were probably right . Yet I still maintain that whilst a single sku of bog standard toy balloons ,may not return as much cash, it will take return far more % profit per square inch than nearly anything else in a toy store.

So what is the allure of this simple object ? It is not without its opponents. Over the years it has had confrontations with the farming lobby, and environmentalists. Even today many think that latex balloons are made of plastic. Clue in title, please err ‘….Latex. There are those that are Balloon Phobic. I have encountered customers who would not step onto an exhibition stand as they are frightened of balloons. Not many, I hasten to add, I can only remember two . But there again I suppose I would not meet them all as they wouldn’t have come anywhere near me .

There are few that would walk into a room full of balloons, and not raise a smile. After a short while that same person, child or adult, would defer to childhood, and want to play with them, even if it is a sophisticated decoration. Maybe because they float or have a life of their own they subconsciously imbue a feeling hope, happiness and maybe even a touch of freedom. I have a sneaky feeling this is a peculiarly UK thing (and North America) . I am not sure this has translated to such a degree into mainland Europe, though I don’t see why it wont. Balloonwise , we are ahead of the game. A customer of mine (who is very close to the action on this one ) said he saw this coming sometime ago. He saw a movement to people playing (in a craft way) but suspected it would take another couple years to go mainstream. In his opinion , Covid has only hastened the timeline.

A toy it may no longer just be. Its development into adulthood has only just fortified its resilience and maintained its humility .