So There’s a New Kid on the Block …..

Posted on by markybrett

Ever since the human species started selling stuff, there has always been a New Kid. Today we would call them disruptors.

  • A bloke on a horse (they would, invariably, have been male) would have replaced the bloke on foot walking from camp to camp flogging stuff to the camp dwellers. For horse insert donkey, cow, camel, goat or whatever was the local form of four legged transport
  • Carts were added to help carry more stuff
  • When the camps got bigger no doubt the local entrepreneurs would have built some sort of semi permanent stall
  • Eventually permanent buildings ( A shop) would have been erected
  • The next step ( I think) would have been a group of shops, selling the same stuff , owned by the same entrepreneurs having them located in different towns. Thinking about it this could have been the first disruptor in the retail market place. A shop liked by the consumer because they did not have to travel to other towns to buy these products and bought them at better prices because the entrepreneur paid less for them as they bought in bulk . The very same reasons other retailers would have hated them. Thereby disrupting the market as opposed to purely developing the market
  • Department stores
  • Mail order
  • Chains of Department stores
  • Supermarkets (disruptor)
  • Huge supermarkets (disruptor)
  • Discount stores (not sure about this one)
  • Convenience stores
  • Online shopping
  • The market places eg eBay & Amazon etc (big disruptors) but very different animals
  • Social media platforms ie Facebook, Instagram & Tik Tok, combined with the use of Influencers(disruptors)

For sometime now, Mr Bezos and his garage start up has been the scourge of many a retailer worldwide. At the same time it has also created many multi million dollar sellers .

Getida

Is there any other retail operator that make this claim? Apart from some of the world food franchises eg McDonalds and KFC et al, I doubt it . What is more, the majority of Amazon’s profits are made from its cloud computing operations. Such as hosting a big chunk of the U.K. government’s operations including that of HMRC . Yes that’s what you’re thinking, all my tax returns? It amazes that me that many still don’t realise this including a number of accountants I know. Yes, next time you post your Vat returns you will see them fly off to AWS cloud .

But this is not about Amazon, there is a new kid on the block . I believe this one is much more insidious.

I posted about this particular beast in 2023, detailing its extraordinary growth. Temu is it’s name, disruption is it’s game.

Below is a chart, which represents its parent company Pinduoduo, rapid growth in the US.

It isn’t that by buying from Temu , you can seemingly refurbish a four bedroom house for £13.50. It isn’t what may actually turn up in your door step a few weeks later may not be quite exactly as the image you bought from. Neither is it that the quality of said goods might mean you have to refurbish your house again a month later . Nor is that the likelihood that any of these products meet any quality or safety standards. I see none of this as a problem as I feel the consumer worldwide is more canny than that. They will get over the novelty and quite literally use it as a giant novelty gift shop .

Most of us would think it would only be the Gen Z generation who were hooked by it . The stats below ( once again from the US) show the complete opposite.

This alternative Perfidious Albion goes much deeper. Before I go any further , I have waited a long time to use that phrase and I am not completely sure , I have got it right this time but look it up and hopefully you can see if I have.

1. They are amassing a huge amount of data

2. They are scraping the ocean floor of keywords relating to their product areas creating havoc on many online stores specialising in those products .

Amassing a load of data is no new thing. Amazon have been doing it for nearly thirty years. Temu have been doing it less than thirty months. We, sort of, let Amazon do it as they provide products the Consumer likes and wants and if the product is not right Amazon sorts it. Their focus has always been on the consumer . Consequently the consumer is very confident buying from Amazon. As far as the Temu’s of this world are concerned they just provide very cheap product and I don’t see that as a long term business model .So what is their plan….

I am none the wiser.

The keywords issue is having a big impact on online web shops. Within my own industry , I have stories where they have hijacked over 40% of the relevant key words. This has had an immediate impact on their business. If I type in google Party shops in Leicester (or any other town in the UK ) Temu will come up first or second. This, in itself, is not usual . But this has happened very quickly and is very disruptive.

There have been other disruptors in recent years such as Alibaba & Shein. Shein employs approximately fifteen people in the UK as of last September. They have also opened various pop up shops and acquired some brands such as Misguided. Yes they are very cheap but from subjective sources the quality is poor. In the US there is an 88% awareness of the brand but only just over 20% satisfaction rate (Statista.com) . But it is very clear as to what their mojo is. Cheap, throw away fashion. I am not sure we know what Temu’s is ?

In a slight aside Shein is looking for a listing either in New York or London, with a current valuation of approximately $60 Billion (down from $100 billion). Some financial journalists believe they are looking for a listing as soon as possible , whilst the valuation remains relatively high as they are being constantly being scrutinised for manipulation of EU & UK tax laws concerned with import duties, in addition to age old agreements on very favourable local shipping rates.

If a company fills a container with items, they can say they are all individual consignments and escape the duty — but in reality, it’s a container load of goods. It’s an abuse of the system,” Richard Allen, a campaigner with Retailers Against VAT Abuse Schemes (RAVAS).

Yet some observers wonder whether this also betrays a fear that stiff competition from its rival Temu, which has quickly aped aspects of Shein’s tax-lite model — as well as the prospect of regulatory crackdowns on fast fashion — will mean Shein’s stratospheric rise could soon level off. Sunday Times May 5th 2024

The tax laws referred to, refer to Temu as well . Low value single items (£135 in the UK) are treated as gifts with import duty .In many cases these single items are bundled together in a container still avoiding import duties but benefiting from lower courier rates and the benefiting from much lower local postal services.

This is a bit of an oversimplification but it illustrates of the nature of the beast we are all dealing with.

How we deal with it ? I don’t know. The French have decided to have a go

Brands that churn out cheap clothes and constantly change their styles face penalties of up to 50 per cent of the retail price in a move to offset their environmental impact.

Advertising is to be banned for fast fashion retailers, whose clothes are usually binned within months and end up in landfill. Unlike traditional brands which renew their collections four times a year, politicians claim that fast fashion brands offer thousands of new products every few days, causing pollution and encouraging their customers to keep spending. Sunday Times May 5th 2024.

As to how they can decide what are Cheap Clothes and how many new products are too many remains to be seen. However, going back to the start of the blog, there have always been disruptors and they will continue to appear and disrupt.

i suspect many thought about six years ago Jeff Bezos would be untouchable , or at least the retail version. Then came along 2 disruptors capturing billions of dollars of consumer spend from nowhere . Very soon there will be another. The extra ordinary thing is we don’t have any idea what format that new kid will take and who they will disrupt.

2023…Could be a (or not so) Great Year ….?

Posted on by markybrett

My Customers will start ask me the perennial question…How do you think the new year will be. I am very succinct and precise. It could be good or bad. That’s it in a nutshell.

There is a footnote to this response that is not always obvious as depending who the customer is I do not include this is in my ‘six word ‘ financial forecasts.

I am very clear in my own head ( as if anyone is any doubt ??)

  • I am not a financial analyst
  • I am not a retail analyst
  • I am not a market analyst
  • I am not an analyst

But I am frequently asked the question at the beginning of the year by customers, colleagues, Julia , A few friends ( very few that confined, in that I only have a few , very few. To extend my audience I have asked Aristotle ( our dog) and his canine response is I am only interested in three things …

  • Walking (currently it is -5 degrees but that doesn’t bother him )
  • Food
  • A massage

As long as my face and the sound of my voice assures him, that is the only interest he has in the coming year.

There is undoubtedly a number of gloomy indicators out there , especially for the first three months. Cost of energy, continuing Ukraine crisis, inflation, interest rates , consumer confidence, industrial unrest, and a lot of uncertainty within the World .

So what’s good about 2023

  • Inflation appears to be peaking and below what was forecasted
  • Interest rates whilst still rising are predicted to be well below original forecasts
  • Sterling has recovered some of its losses
  • Covid does not present the same barrier it has for the last 2 years
  • Fixed mortgage rates have reduced a little
  • The survey of 138 companies, including 50 retailers, found that a net balance of 11 per cent of businesses said sales grew, up from -19 per cent in November (CBI)
  • A Coronation (at least for the Party Sector in the U.K. )
  • Retail landlords are starting to become a little more realistic

This does not detract from it being potentially being very tough, but it should be put into some of perspective. The total retail sales within the U.K. in 2021 were £421 billion . There were approximately 316,000 retail outlets. If retail sales fall by 3% that equals £12 billion . However, if we look it another way a consumer who had £100 in their pocket to spend freely may only have £97. If you extrapolate that further and look at the total U.K. spend on party (of which it is really difficult to find a true figure) even if was half of 1% of total retail spend which would be a gross over estimate , we are looking at targeting less than 50p of the consumer spend .

There will be many (gross exaggeration) readers who will say don’t be bloody stupid ….that’s only £30 million total party market. It is quite clearly many times that but the principal is the same . Within our market place our target audience is a very small proportion of their overall disposable income.

Twixt the optimist and pessimist
The difference is droll:
The optimist sees the doughnut
But the pessimist sees the hole.

McLandburgh Wilson b. 1892 author

Everyone buys Online Now !

Posted on by markybrett

No they don’t !

Office for National Statistics October 2023

This means 75% of purchases are not online .

For every £100 we spend , £75 is spent in a shop ( or it’s brick equivalent).

I last posted about this about 6 years ago. Little has changed apart from the share of online has naturally increased, but the drop in market share post Covid is evidence that purchasing online is not always consumer heaven.

More importantly is that not all about consumer preferences . It is also about the complexities of selling online.

Are you an Exhibitionist ?

Posted on by markybrett

I am not.

Or rather not in the way displayed by the guy above.

I am, in terms of probably having been an exhibitor at about 140 trade exhibitions during my working life time. Over 80% of those I have been involved in the building and taking down of said exhibition stands. Moreover for the last twenty years plus I have been a Director of Exhibition Company. If that makes me an exhibitionist in the same way as someone who does art is an artist , then so be it.

I return to this subject on occasion, as it is sort of the end of the season for my market place in terms of significant trade shows (party, Christmas, toys and cards) so the issues , and they are mainly issues, are fresh in my head. For purposes of my own clarity of thought, something quite difficult for me to achieve, I shall split this into three sections, Organiser, Exhibitor and Visitor (Buyer).

ORGANISER

Like anything, there are good and bad. As a generalisation they fall into two camps: Big & Small. The Big ones in my experience are the worst offenders . By ‘offenders’ I mean rubbish organisers.

My personal experience of large organisations running trade shows is down to one Exhibition and many different companies running it over at least forty five years(at The NEC, in total it has been running for over 70 years) . The Show concerned is the The Spring fair held every year at the NEC in Birmingham in the UK . It became one of the largest English Speaking Consumer Goods B2B exhibition in the world . The breadth of product ran from Furniture, Fashion, Jewellery , through to Luggage, Household and even Party . It filled all 20 Halls (190,000 sqm or 2,000,000 sqft) . There were over 3000 exhibitors and upwards of 70,000 visitors from all over the world . It has an extraordinary location , in that it is in walking distance of Birmingham Airport , Mainline train station (direct from Birmingham Central & London Euston) and quite literally minutes away from an extensive Motorway network , which can take you all the way the Glasgow, London, Manchester & Newcastle without a traffic light. A great deal has changed since 1976 when it first opened and most Exhibitions (Worldwide) have suffered falling numbers, both in terms of exhibitors and potential buyers . Yet the decline with this show has been even more dramatic, now not being able to fill 8 Halls and around only 1200 exhibitors.

How So ?

Like many large operators an element of arrogance. When the show was full and there were waiting lists there was a great deal of ‘you will do what we want you to do even if that is not best for your company ‘ attitude. During later years as the decline (partly due to the changing profile of the retail market place )this persisted but in a different way even under different owners . This manifested itself in many ways such as constantly re-organising Halls , re-organising stand locations ,even when being promised a stand location if booked early only to be moved . This happened three times to a friend of mine in 2023 .

Then there was the year that they proposed parking charges, suggesting somehow this was good thing. There was uproar and they capitulated . In 2023 they ( with a fanfare ) were going to add a substantial (additional I may add) marketing fee to each exhibitor for the use of contact software which buyers would use to make 15 minute slot appointments on stands. Once again claiming this was an amazing opportunity (obligatory) for every exhibitor . Following, what was probably an exhibition first at least in the UK, Industrial Action(better name for gentle riot) at the Autumn Fair . Another 180 degree decision making process. And finally (trust me there are lots more) in an email to prospective visitors they trumpeted wonderful new benefits eg Extra seating in the Halls (or rather aka lack of exhibition stands ) and a happy hour drinks late afternoon for buyers . Well thanks very much exhibition organiser for a super way of sucking the potential buyer away from visiting stands. That said if it did happen I don’t know of any buyer that made use of it.

For Good Organisers trying looking at smaller shows (Christmas & Gift in Harrogate for example ) . Of course I am biased .

Exhibitors

Organisers sell space and market the show to potential buyers. Exhibitors rent the space dress it, display their product and focus on getting their target buyer to come to the show and visit the stand . Simples, as a well known Meerkat says. For the most part exhibitors do this well. Well at least creating a welcoming and effective area of display. What some do , and it is a minority but a largish minority, they rely on the Organiser to bring in the punter. They have a responsibility but if you are a exhibitor, who has spent a lot of time and money on your space, it is you that should target your potential customer base and get the visitors to come and to come to your stand. If a major buyer attends the show and does not come to your stand it is not the fault of the Organiser. The blame lies elsewhere.

If a group of buyers that you would expect to see are at the show but don’t come to you. It is not the fault of the Organiser. The blame lies elsewhere.

If those buyers pass your stand and don’t come on . It is not the fault of the Organiser. The blame lies elsewhere.

Lastly, if they do come and never buy from you it is not the fault of the Organiser. The blame lies elsewhere.

The exhibitor has to work hard to find out who they want to come , then if they are coming inducing them to visit your stand and when they do make it an interesting and informative experience.

Seeing it from both sides of the counter , I find it quite extraordinary that companies both big and small who have spent not an inconsiderable sum on showing at a trade exhibition and then display (sometimes very poorly- display that is ) a very laissez faire attitude towards the very organisation’s they presumably want to trade with or at very least open a channel of communication. Then to make it even worse fail to follow up after the show.

Buyers (Visitors)

There are Good and Bad. Without argument there are considerably less in number -no matter the market – than there were twenty years . Take my own industry, there were over 350 wholesalers ( of various shapes and sizes) of Greeting cards about twenty five years ago, maybe thirty. If only half of those visited any one relevant trade show there would be three to four colleagues, from most of the visiting companies, equalling over 500 visitors. Today there are barley a dozen (and that is generous figure ) still trading today. If two colleagues from half of the companies came to a show today , it equals 10 visitors. Moreover that 10 would each spend less time at the show as against the 500+.

Unfortunately the Good & Bad have a similar impact on those depleting numbers.

Bad

Looking at Bad, is actually quite complex. As Bad can mean various things.

  • Buyers who just never go to a trade show. If you don’t you quite literally do not know what you are missing . It maybe nothing but you don’t know unless you go
  • Buyers who go but don’t look . Rather they do look but only at their existing suppliers
  • Buyers that suffer from that horrendous affliction of Trade show over enthusiasm. I have seen the symptoms so many times . They visit your stand . Are very enthusiastic and tell you to contact them afterwards. When doing so ( contacting them that is ) never take take or return your calls. Even worse they take your call and haven’t a ‘scooby do ‘ as to what you are talking about . The worst scenario which has only happened to me a couple of times. They actually do take your call. They make an appointment . Then when you do turn up, they don’t or ask why are you here ?
  • Those that that don’t tell you who they are . I appreciate that some of the bigger buyers don’t want to be hassled but I’m sure they are professional enough to be able handle unwanted advances . If you, the seller, don’t know who you are talking to, you can’t best inform or help them.

Good

  • Those that spend good quality time at relevant trade shows , talking to existing suppliers about future developments in addition to looking for those who may have products and services that they would not have come across and would add value to their business.
  • Those that understand that exhibitions are not just about buying stuff or looking for stuff to buy. They are also about networking. Talking to suppliers and maybe competitors. Very often it is the only time especially with smaller operators that they get to see wider pictures of what is going on in their market places . It can go further . Looking at trends not necessarily directly related to your own product or service category but those areas that indirectly affect your business.

How about that ? It’s much easier being a Good buyer than a Bad buyer.

Over the last fifteen years or so the role of the Trade Exhibition has changed enormously . The three parties (organisers, exhibitors and visitors) that do not recognise this, will be party to the continuing decline of trade shows. They are no longer places for taking or placing orders. They are no longer events that will attract visitors in the numbers of days long gone.

If the Organiser does not provide a facility that is affordable and welcoming, the exhibitor will no longer exhibit. The Organiser will fail . However if the exhibitor and visitor still wants a relevant event, an alternative Organiser will appear. If they decide they don’t need a show then a show won’t happen .

So in conclusion Organisers need to raise their game

organizatores certaminis, cave

Trade show organisers, be aware

A bad exhibitor’s business won’t necessarily fail because they have a rubbish stand . It won’t help but it won’t fail.

A Buyer’s business won’t necessarily fail because they don’t go to an exhibition. It won’t help but it won’t fail.

Eventually an Organiser’s business will fail if it is a rubbish Organiser.

The World is Going to Hell in a Hand Cart…Or is it?…And now for the Good News !

Posted on by markybrett

At the end of each year and the beginning of the next, Philosophers, Pontificators, Publishers, Politicians and People in general , muse a plenty upon the effects on their relevant society the impact of the world’s events .

I am in full agreement that Covid is still having its impact. I am fortunate enough, to have been able to talk to various people, over the last few months, from all over the world . There is one common string and that Covid has and is still having an impact on their society. Within that one subject there are also a lot of similar patterns. For example , working from home, wanting to change work/life balances, not wanting to do certain jobs and these few examples are from very disparate economies. But that is where I stop.

I think what prompted my ire was call on the radio saying life had not been normal since 2008 and the Financial crash. So nothing much had happened before that and life was pretty normal !

  • 1914 -18 World War 1
  • 1917 Russian Revolution
  • 1929 The Great depression
  • 1933 The beginning of Nazi Germany
  • 1939-45 World War 2 -(UK subject to food rationing until 1953)
  • 1945 The dropping of 2 Nuclear Bombs
  • 1945 -1991 Cold War
  • 1947 India/Pakistan partition
  • 1950-53 Korean war
  • 1951 Chinese revolution
  • 1955 -75 The Vietnam War
  • 1956 The Suez Crisis
  • 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis
  • 1967 -1974 Greece run by Military dictatorship
  • 1973 Six day War
  • 1973 Oil Crisis
  • 1973 Watergate
  • 1974 UK – 3 day working week for 2 months(miners strike)
  • 1975 Spain becomes a democracy having been run by a Dictator since 1939
  • 1980 Iran/Iraq War
  • 1982 Argentina invades the Falklands
  • 1987 Black Monday -Financial Crisis-Markets collapse world wide
  • 1991 Desert Storm -1st invasion of Iraq
  • 1992 Bosnian War
  • 2001 9/11
  • 2001 Invasion of Afghanistan
  • 2003 The 2nd Iraq War

So nothing there really, that would much alter the course of society then……

I will not go on. There is much more in between times and 2003 brings us close enough to 2008 . It would be so easy to go back even further and talk about British Colonialism, Spanish & most of Western Europe’s adventures in World Colonisation, Napoleon, The Reformation, The Plague and the 100 years War . The point is that within the last two thousand years world society has been constantly changing because of massive and connected world events . There never has been a ‘Normal’.

There could be a case for saying that Society would not be as it is today if it were not for a continuous flow of life changing events. Actually there isn’t a case to answer. It is quite clear Society evolves because of linked events. Nature evolves, humanity evolves, as a consequence of world events ergo Society evolves.

Before I go onto the good things that may have happened in recent years, I want to shine a little light on the comments about How bad are our current politicians are in the UK . I hold no candle for any of them , indeed I believe most of them are worse than a barrel load of monkeys and that is doing the monkeys a disservice . However let’s take a peak at some of the antics of UK politics over the last seventy years .

1910’s – Major scandal over allegations of insider trading including Lloyd George

1920’s -Once again involving Lloyd George and giving Honours for large campaign contributions – Where have we heard that before ?

1960’s -John Profumo affair with Christine Keeler who was having affair with a Soviet Spy. The Robert Boothby (Tory), Tom Driberg (Labour), Kray brothers affair and consequent cover-up involving senior politicians of both parties.

1970’s -Labour MP John Stonehouse’s faked suicide . He did not resign as a Privy Councillor until after he had been convicted and sentenced to seven years in prison for fraud.

1990’s – Cash-for-questions affair involving Neil Hamilton. Bernie Ecclestone was involved in a political scandal when it transpired he had given the Labour Party a million pound donation – which raised eyebrows when the incoming Labour government changed its policy to allow Formula One to continue being sponsored by tobacco manufacturers. The Labour Party returned the donation when the scandal came to light.

2001- Geoffrey Archer found guilty of perjury.

This by no means exhaustive, and only confined to the UK. It just illustrates that there were not even the Good Old days in Politics .

And now the Good stuff ….(from 2023). Much of this comes directly from an issue of the Sunday times Magazine December 31 2023.

The First New baby beaver born in London for 400 years

A 20 year project has taken the world population for mountain Gorillas from 650 to 1,063

The Global population of Rhinos has increased to 27,000

The Hole in the Ozone layer is on track to healed by 2040. 99% of ozone depleting chemicals have been eliminated under the Montreal Protocol

Within the last 10 years the % of UK adult population smoking has decreased from 20.2% to 12.9% (in the sixties it was over 50%)

The number of women in the UK dying with Breast cancer since the 1990’s has been reduced by two thirds

Within the space of a single generation child mortality rates for the under 5’s has fallen globally by 59%

123 Countries now have paid paternal leave as against only 46 in the 1990’s

The number of nuclear weapons has declined by 80% since the Cold War (that said there is a more than enough to blow us all to smithereens)

Globally there 50 million more Girls in school than there were in 2015

So if Mummy & Daddy Beaver and Mummy & Daddy Gorilla feel it is right to bring more babies into this world , perhaps it is not quite as bad as we think it is.

Mum, are you down there ?

Mum, is this the Good Life ?

I am of an age , where I have sufficient years behind me to say stuff like

“Them was the good old days”

“It wasn’t like that in my day”

“Fings ain’t what they used to be”

But I can’t, won’t and would never do so . Because in context there were no good old days.

What I do know was that there was rampant misogyny, virulent homophobia, extreme racism, and an equal level of dubious political shenanigans, covered up by a more acquiescent media. Domestic violence was rife but never reported . All this and more still exists but nothing like it was in the mid to late nineteen hundred’s .

Even as late as 1967 it was estimated that 25% of residential properties did not have serviceable indoor bathroom/toilet facilities. Most properties (even middle class suburbia ) had draughty windows and no central heating . There was little social mobility. Up until the 1980’s corruption was endemic in London’s police (and more than likely through most U.K. metropolitan police forces).

Being unaware of the past , is not an unusual occurrence . But when it is one of the world’s most powerful individuals it is very scary. Elon Musk was heavily criticised for expressing antisemitism ( or denying there was) via his private platform X/Twitter ( I also thought he should have bought Mars which make the chocolate bar of the same name . It would tie in so well as he wants to go to Mars, then calling it TwiX) . However, he apologised accepting he was wrong after visiting Auschwitz with his three year old son.

“one of the most foolish” things he had done on the platform.

Elon Musk -BBC

It may seem this was a bit out of kilter but it is a good illustration of not being aware of what has happened in quite recent history clouds the way society views the present.

According to Mental Health UK there were 8 million people with anxiety issues in 2023 . I am quite sure this showed a big increase on the previous four years . Yet what was the level of anxiety in the U.K. in 1938 just before war broke out. Or in Japan immediately after Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Or 1946 post war Germany . Or Europe in 1918, the years of the Great Depression in the USA and Europe. Nobody had a ‘scooby doo’. Mental health was very stigmatised and people often viewed as ‘defective’.

Yes things are tough , but hasn’t it ever been thus… just different kinds of tough .

Is there ever a good time to sell stuff ?

Posted on by markybrett

1634 great year for selling Dutch Tulips . 1637 not so great.

If you were to take the national media seriously, you would very rapidly come to the conclusion that the market for everything is bad.

Major supermarket with 2,800 sites to close two stores permanently in days – is your local shutting?

The Sun

Yes that major supermarket is Tesco’s and they were closing 2 , yes 2 stores .

The Sun also reported earlier that week with a headline Major Upset for the High Street , as chain closes 2 stores...This was New Look , who have been closing stores for a number of years. The Sun also confirmed that the Chain would be opening six later in the year . So what they chose to headline were the two closures and not the six new ones.

And yet …..

Primark owner raises profit guidance for second time as sales surge 15%

Retail Gazette September 2023

Majestic Wine to hire 200 staff ahead of its ‘biggest Christmas ever’

Retail Gazette September 2023

Next defies expectations as it raises profit outlook for third time this year

Retail Gazette September 2023

JD Sports on track for over £1bn profits amid solid sales growth

Retail Gazette September 2023

Things are tough. But there is still a huge amounts spent each week on stuff we need and stuff we don’t need . The critical issue is making sure you are one of the retailers that get their hands on that cash. At a time when a large Retailer goes bust, the first shout (from the media) is that every retailer is going to hell in a hand cart . Its over . Nobody can operate on the High Street , everyone has gone online . Clearly not true .

If it was all over for the High Street retailer you would not see these sort of headlines. Moreover , you would not see Retailers picking up stores from the demise of Wilko . They will all be rebranded, as the Wilko Brand was already a fading brand and had been for a number of years . It was no longer a good retailer . Their consumer was still buying the type of product Wilko sold but from better retailers .

It is always about ,and always has been, Good retailers and not so Good retailers .The same is true of whether they are bricks and mortar or online. The problems and issues are, sometimes, different but the consequences the same. Looking through a list of non active clients over the last five years, the vast majority are actually or rather were online operators who have gone out of business . Some more recent closures have come about despite having major upturns during Covid , making the false assumption this was the new norm .

There is no norm. I think this part of the biggest problem facing Retail now and going forward. You can think what is the norm ? We all have to think about Tomorrow , we can’t doing anything about Today it is too late .

These are some of the issues and resolutions facing big retail corporations worldwide, or at least according to Deloitte …..

As consumer product companies struggle to obtain the inputs and commodities they require, they also face a changing geopolitical and business environment. This involves governmental restrictions on technology transfer, fraught relations between the world’s greatest powers, and increased regionalisation of supply chains. It also involves new efforts by global companies to reinforce supply chain resilience and redundancy, partly by diversifying supply chain processes and no longer depending on just one country or supplier. As a result, we may begin to see a consumer products industry emerge that is, in many ways, more diverse than before.

Dr Ira Kalish, Chief Global Economist, Deloitte

While some of this has an indirect impact on the smaller enterprises few are in a position to do anything about these macro factors. However, I do see the last sentence, from the above quote, having a resonance much further down the chain . That very sentence could very well be have written specifically for Independents .

Diversity in terms of product and service, are precisely where the Independent needs to be . Within my own industry i.e. Party, the success of the good Independent Party Retailer in the UK and beyond over the last couple of years is down to diversity. And by diversity I refer to specifically balloon decoration . This is has been taken to a different level .

It is something that cannot be reproduced within large retail chains . And most certainly cannot be sold at a discount but it has come about because the consumer seeks something different and is prepared to pay for it. Of course, this is an over simplification. But it serves as an illustration of creating products and services that are innovative and diverse.

There no simple solutions to effective retailing . Since 2008 (financial recession) through Brexit, Covid and the current cost of living crisis (please note this is not something confined to the UK) there has not been a positive retail environment . Yet many retailers have thrived . I cannot think of one Good Retailer-multiple or otherwise that has had to close because of the current trading conditions .

One very good reason

The total value of retail sales, including fuel, reached a peak value of approximately 495.71 billion British pounds in 2022. This marked an increase of about 35 million British pounds on the previous year. 

Statista.com

This , of course, included items such as fuel and food but it still represents a heck of a lot of money . I think if you examine the successful retailers e.g Next, Zara, Uniqlo, Dunelm and the major discounters , all have a number of common factors:

  • frequency of new product
  • good stock holdings
  • innovation
  • understanding their customers perception of value

Dunelm has seen its first-quarter sales up 9%, largely driven by volume, as customers continued to revamp their, bedding and home decorations despite the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.

The homewares retailer said both its stores and digital channels ‘performed well’, with the contribution from digital sales up 2 percentage points year-on-year to 35% as looks to ‘take further market share.’

“Growth was broad based across our categories with our new autumn/winter ranges, including new collaborations with Disney and the Natural History Museum, resonating well,” the company said in a statement.

The company added that it is on track with its accelerated store roll-out plan which includes opening five to ten stores per year for the next two years.

Retail Gazette

The following is a list of lesser known brands but have the common factor of being the fastest growing retailers in the UK

  1. AU Vodka (£43.9m, 413%) – a premium spirits
  2. Ooni (£208m, 289%) – a pizza oven retailer
  3. Lounge Underwear (£71.3m, 113%) – lingerie retailer
  4. Wolf & Badger (£24.6m, 108%) – a fashion marketplace
  5. Gousto – (£315.2m, 95%) – meal kits
  6. Fairfax & Favor (£28.9m, 85%) – a country lifestyle brand
  7. Sosandar (£29.5m, 81%) – women’s fashion
  8. Butternut Box (£34.9m, 79%) – fresh dog food delivery
  9. Beauty Pie (£53.1m, 79%) – cosmetics buying club
  10. Muc Off (£44.3m, 73%) – bike cleaning products

The Retail Bulletin

The retail brands in the 2023 Top 100 logged cumulative sales of £2,227m – whereas the Retail businesses in the Top 100 last year achieved just £1,874m. Of the 26 retail companies in the 100, 18 of them are new entries this year

The Retail Bulletin

So much of this indicates is that there is always a good time to sell stuff. Just make sure it is the right stuff sold in the right way….

Encumbered by Numbers !

Posted on by markybrett
  • 5.25% Current UK Bank rate (August 2023)
  • 7.9% UK inflation rate (June 2023)
  • 2.9% drop in house prices in the UK (July 22 -July 23)
  • 2.25 % Bank of England May 2022 forecast for Bank Rate May 2023
  • 96% of GDP to 267% in 50 years’ time in 2071/72 (UK Office Office of Budget Responsibility)Net debt as a share of GDP rising – When has any UK Government- probably includes any western democracy- been interested in anything longer than the next General election
  • $300 trillion Global debt(December 2022 -World Economic Forum) (US accounts for just over 10%)
  • £0.70p average price of a pint of milk in the UK August 2023 (Office of National Statistics)
  • 1.5% increase in UK Retail sales July 2023
  • 1.9% increase in UK Retail footfall (same period)
  • 3 in November -The age of our Dog Ari
  • 384 – BC the year Aristotle was born
  • 7000 – the number of trade prices I am supposed to remember (or so think some of my customers)
  • 5.6 million -number Airbnb listings worldwide
  • 7.9 billion -world population 2023
  • 2.3 million US properties underwent foreclosure during the Sub Prime market in the USA between 2007 & 2008
  • -4.1% (note this is a minus figure) China’s deflation figure August 2023
  • 47.8% Turkish inflation rate – July 2023
  • 64 million- number of shipping containers world wide
  • 29 million beef cattle in the US in 2023
  • 20 million penguins on Antartica
  • 392,000 hotel rooms in Spain
  • £84 billion -valuation of Pinduoduo ( owner of Temu latest Chinese market place)
  • 9 million downloads of above Temu app in the U.K. , since launch in the U.K. four months ago (August 2023)
  • 91 indictments faced by Donald Trump
  • 3-1 the odds on Trump winning Presidential election in 2024

The point being….. We are bombarded by numbers every single minute of the day . Most we ignore but most are actually interrelated, and in some way effect all of us either personally, socially or in our working day. All of the above (with maybe the exception of the name of our dog) are interconnected in some way or another . Its a bit like the Chaos Theory of the butterfly that flaps its wings in Tokyo and ends up with a huge storm in the Mediterranean. This may not be an exact hypothesis but hopefully it gives as a reasonable picture as any Mathematical Theory does.

What we have to do is try to unravel those numbers that come to us and we think have an influence on our own businesses .

Unravelling is not an easy task, apart from anything many of those relevant numbers change . Only this week the UK HMRC stated that the tax take for first half of the year was higher than expected . Thus making the public purse look healthier . How so ? Everyone, whether companies, employed or self employed or retired and receiving unearned income, has to make a tax return. That Return determines how much tax is due . So where does all these unexpected tax come from ? Some shady deals where some weird taxpayers want to overpay their tax ? Me think not .

All of a sudden underlying inflation in the UK is dropping quicker than expected , when only last month we were being told it was very stubborn. So if the number makers cant get it right what chance have the rest of us.

My view of numbers is to look at your own. That is is to say if your operation and your customer base is still spending make sure it continues . By that I mean there are many retailers who look at the numbers (cost of living, inflation, media reports ) and think ‘must batten down the hatches‘. This usually involves buying no stock . So as they have no stock , they sell less and are proved right and buy even less. Look at what is happening around you, not what others are telling is happening elsewhere.

Consumer confidence jumped five points to minus 25 this month , beating analysts’ expectations and up from 30 points in the previous month, according to the research firm GfK, which has been tracking the data since the 1970s.

An improvement in expectations for personal finances over the coming year and better predictions on how the UK economy will perform pulled the overall index higher.

The August confidence bump indicates households were growing more optimistic over the summer before a recent string of downbeat economic data renewed concerns about the UK slipping into recession.

The Times August 25/08/2023

Vs

The net balance of retail sales in August tumbled to minus 44 per cent, down sharply from minus 25 per cent in July. It was the biggest drop in sales since March 2021, according to the latest CBI distributive trades survey.

The Times August 25/08/2023

Same Newspaper , Same day (they were actually on opposite pages ) 2 very different sets of numbers .

Many a good retailer has told me that an empty hook doesn’t pay your rent . If you can only fill it with product that nets you a penny . That penny is better than nothing . If a customer walks into a store and there is nothing to buy, then that is exactly what will happen. They will buy nothing . But they will go elsewhere and buy that something. I experience empty shelves or hooks virtually everyday . Every empty shelf or empty hook= Potential Lost business and customer.

The media is stuffed full of numbers and most have some form of veracity or at very least they have at a point in time and place. But Context is the critical consideration . How do they relate to my business ? More importantly how do we react to those that are relevant .

If your business is not doing well, it is too easy just to blame it on the cost of living crisis, inflation, or the economic situation . Any one, or all, of those may indeed be the reason but those are not in your control . You can’t effect any of those . There maybe other factors either local conditions or something within your operation that you can affect. If your business is doing well , the very same things apply , but look at why you are doing well and don’t let the negatives alter your course unless there are very direct or obvious reasons for doing so.

Don’t let the Number Encumber ….

Big Discount… Off What ?

Posted on by markybrett

“In our view it will never be cheap enough and in Boeing’s view it is always far too cheap.”

Michael O’Leary-CEO Ryanair, after placing an order with Boeing for $40 billion -before discounts

Within any commercial environment , I don’t care what type of clients you have , they will always ask for discounts in one way or another.

It is expected . The frustration, occurs, for me anyway , when they don’t really know what they are talking about.

The conversation may go something like .

Well what sort of discount are you going to give me ? ‘cos Extra Cheap Super Supplies Ltd gives me 40% off if I buy 50 of their top of the range Super Widget.

What is the net price of their Super Widget after discount?

What do you want to know that for ?

Because 40% off Super Supplies Ltd price equals £0.90 per super widget and our Super Widget less 10% equals £0.85p

I still want me 40%

You can’t help but want to throttle them. I had a wholesale customer, a number of years ago , who was doing a seasonal promotion selling an item at a very keen net price. He had flyers printed ( as you did then) and sent them to all his client base. It did not work because a competitor was doing a promotion on exactly the same product but giving a big discount instead of a net price. The net price wholesaler abandoned this type of promotion and went back to discount only promos. The Discount wholesaler was 15% more expensive than the Net wholesaler .

At Retail the issues are a lot more complex. An independent retailer faces very different problems to that of a multiple. Invariably, the independent will have to reduce margins to offer favourable discounts. The multiple will expect the discount to be funded by the supplier. As to whether the consumer is getting a bargain is up for debate .

In May this year, Boohoo made headlines for agreeing to pay $197m (£159m) to settle a lawsuit accusing the retailer of using “deceptive” discounts across its fashion brands. 

Raconteur June 2023

In the UK there is a law in place to obviate false discounts. However, this particular law is much and easily abused . An article has to have been offered in that location for at least 28 days at a higher price before any discount is promoted. So what happens? 2 common outcomes

  1. Retailer buys ‘specials’ from a supplier puts them on the shelf for 28 days at an artificial price the offers a special sale price, which is a lot closer to real price.
  2. Retailer quite simple has product on shelf at inflated prices and then offers a sale price which only reflects their usual margin.

“Artificial inflation is unfortunately incredibly common in retail and not just in the fashion industry,” 

Nick Drewe, founder of discount platform WeThrift

Online is a lot more murky .

One in 10 deals on Black Friday last year was fake, she says, with 25% of products more expensive than at the start of November. 

Liisa Matinvesi-Bassett, UK country manager at price comparison platform PriceSpy.

Despite all this, discounting remains a significant tool in the commercial box. How it is used effectively is perhaps more of a dark art.

That dark art is, I believe, well practiced by Pizza Outlets. As a consumer (only very occasionally) it really annoys me. Pizza Hut, Dominoes , Papa Johns, they are all at it. Their list prices of Pizzas are exorbitant. You can buy a far better quality pizza in any supermarket chain for a fraction of the price . Worse still, you buy one in a good restaurant for less than the list price of the main Pizza franchises . They make the sale by artificial discounts. There are BOGOF’s, buy one family sized and get one free or a bottle of coke and a tub of ice cream free, The week’s special, the summer’s special , Halloween special . The variety of offer is endless . Yet none of these specials equal that of a recent Sainsbury offer

2 pizzas and a tub of Ben & Jerry’s for a fiver.

I don’t really get it. Most of the other major fast food outsets don’t use this strategy, McDonalds , and KFC sometimes do the odd major promo like lending you Florida for a day or a plastic toy but their pricing strategy is not dependent on discounting . With Pizzas it seems part of the DNA.

There are many dangers in its misuse

The devaluation of the product or service

The innate possibility of actually foregoing volume . For example within the grocery industry the ‘BOGOF’( buy one get one free) can severely negate volume if incorrectly used . If you sell a bar of chocolate and you get one free , you will probably sell more as the consumer will eat more . However , if you do the same with a box of tea they are unlikely to drink much more tea and just use it to replace a future purchase.

The postponement of stock replacements if you know the supplier regularly discounts . This can also cause lost revenue by being unnecessarily out of stock.

The customer never trusting standard pricing.

Discount expectation.

Encouraging overstocking resulting in delayed restocking at normal prices.

The Benefits of Discounting

Entry to market

Defence of market share

Winning new customers

Assisting Customer promotions

Pre-empting competitive action

Genuine customer support

Developing customer loyalty

Much of it boils down to how you manage your discount strategy . None of it is much more that a little common sense and the understanding of your market place .

Customers need to ask questions (trade and consumer) of the discount they are being offered . The biggest being

1.Is it real -see Pizzas?

2.Do I need the product ?

3.Is everyone being offered it(b2b) if they are does it give me any advantage ?

4.Is it good stock ?

5.Is it a good value discount ?

6.Might there be a better one next week ? ( I get weekly offers to subscribe to the New York Times. There will be stuff like 24 hours to claim you 25% discount. Then the following week it says the same but the discount is 50% and so it goes on).

7.Will it help my business ?

8. If I take the deal do I need the product (or service)

9. Can I buy cheaper

10. Perhaps more importantly can I buy better ?

So what to do ?

I think the above 10 points are a good starting place . Discounts are a very strong tool for the seller and can be a good opportunity for the buyer , just approach them with care.

There are no victories at discount prices

Dwight Eisenhower

I’m not completely sure I know what he means . I suspect it is something like there are no victories without a cost. It sort of makes sense but depends upon the context much like any discount .

Consumer or Business when offered a Discount ,think of it like a used car . Take a look under the bonnet (hood)first .

Are you under the Influence …..?

Posted on by markybrett

There are those who assume this Guy is completely plastered . There are then, those who think he is peering down a tiny hole in the paving through which he has found an Egyptian tomb stuffed full of wondrous treasures.

Whatever , I will return to this later or I may not .

Marketing evolves . Traders have been travelling to Market towns for millennia displaying and dwelling their wares . In 1902 The University of Pennsylvania offered the first Marketing Course. Professional market research started in the early 1950’s. Since then, there has been a massive influx of new tools that make up the marketing mix. The latest and perhaps one of the more controversial is that of the Influencer.

So what is Influencer marketing …

Influencer marketing is a collaboration between popular social-media users and brands to promote brands’ products or services. These partnerships have been going on informally since the dawn of social media. By 2009, they were sufficiently commonplace for the US Federal Trade Commission to step in and regulate them through the so-called Mommy Blogger law. (China, India, and the United Kingdom have introduced similar regulations.)

Since then, the market has grown astonishingly quickly: over the past five years, it has increased by more than 50 percent on platforms such as Instagram and YouTube (in Western countries) and Pinduoduo and WeChat (in China). This year, the influencer marketing economy was valued at $16.4 billion.

McKinsey April 2023

In one way or another Influencer Marketing has been going on since, certainly, the advent of TV advertising . Like it or not, consumers have bought Walkers Crisps, because of Gary Lineker, Nespresso because of George Clooney. But the current definition of an influencer is somewhat different as in most cases they did not start life as a celebrity and they work within a social media environment.

I was and am still not convinced by the idea. I think there is a growing understanding that these are people paid to give glowing reviews. Nothing new there, but as with endorsers rather than influencers it is unlikely they could swap brands quite so easily. That all said there are key attributes that can make them very useful tools in the marketing mix particularly with small companies and small budgets .

Just look at a very simple example of an Independent Retailer ( of any description), the use and relatively low cost of using an influencer with local knowledge and insight can, potentially, have a far quicker impact on the local community , or more especially the section of which you wish to target than any comparable marketing campaign such as local papers , leaflet drops or even local radio.

Many do or will try to do their own social media campaigns. They obviously cost less but I suggest that few are truly successful .

These figures come from an American agency (Social Shepherd) but nevertheless they seem to reflect what is happening elsewhere. Like any survey question it very much depends how the question is structured.

I have seen within the industry the impact of a good influencer. It was very impressive. The influencer took an relatively unknown Brand of product into the market virtually overnight. There were other factors. It was during Covid and there were supply issues nevertheless it very much shortened the passe of entry to market .

Here is quite a comprehensive guide from The Chartered Institute of Marketing. I have included it all as I think there is some very useful information here.

1. Identify your target customer/audience 

Knowing who you’re selling to is crucial and can often be mapped out using a buyer persona, which outlines your target customer’s demographics, challenges, motivations, and story. 

People typically buy for one of three reasons – to make money, save money, or look/feel good, so understanding how you tick one of those boxes is the first step. 

2. Outline your goals 

Having clear goals when creating an influencer marketing campaign is crucial but often overlooked. 

This includes your KPIs (key performance indicators), budget and OKRs (objective key results). Without these, you won’t have an easy way to determine whether your campaign is going in the right direction or whether you have a positive ROI (return on investment). 

3. Find where their “watering holes” are 

Successful influencer marketing campaigns depend on knowing where your target customers spend most of their time-consuming content and discovering products/services (their watering hole). This may be on one or many social media platforms, such as TikTok, Instagram or LinkedIn; it may even be blogs, in-person events or YouTube. 

To find this information out, you can either ask them directly or monitor social media activity to identify where your target customer engages with content most frequently.

4. Discover influencers at the watering hole 

Now you know where your buyers spend their time, it’s time to find influencers in that space. Fortunately, there are many tools and marketplaces you can use with advanced filtering to find these influencers, such as: 

  • Intellifluence: This is the most “complete” influencer marketplace, allowing you to find influencers across Facebook, TikTok, Instagram, LinkedIn, Twitter, Blogs, YouTube, and many more with advanced filtering options to find the right person for your niche. 
  • Influencity: Influencity is a great way to discover influencers suitable for your marketing campaign, whether you need 1 or 10 from the 70 million available. Influencity also has a free trial. 

Build a database of at least 10 influencers before moving to step 5, as it takes trial and error to find the right one for you. 

TIP: Buying followers and falsely inflating numbers is common in the industry, so check their numbers through tools such as MODASH. 

5. Reach out to them and discuss campaigns 

Now you have a list of influencers, it’s time to contact them to explore the idea of forming a partnership and engaging in a campaign. Below we have listed how to contact different types of influencers:

  • Instagram and TikTok: Often, their email will be displayed in their profile bio, or you can send them a dm. More prominent influencers will be looked after by a management agency that adds their own company email in an influencer’s bio. 
  • Blogs: The best way to get in touch with bloggers is via their email, contact page, or even partnership page. Top bloggers will even include their press kit (explained below) on their website to make it easy for brands to work with them (contact page example and partnership example).
  • LinkedIn and Twitter: Direct messages are best for these platforms. To maximise chances, drop them an email too.

When you reach out, always ask for their press kit, with screenshots of their analytics to prove the engagement figures (website clicks, views, comments, click-through-rates etc) they claim.

6. Set clear deliverables and keep performance indicators 

Now that you have a list of qualified influencers, it’s time to outline the clear deliverables and KPIs you expect from the campaign. 

In some deals, you may be giving them something for free, such as the item/service you sell, in return for a promotion. In other arrangements, there will be money transferred, so be sure to outline and agree, in writing, precisely what you expect to receive. 

Ultimately, the best way for any business to find how to work with influencers is via trial and error. Sometimes the “ideal” influencer just won’t get a return for your brand as their audience may not resonate with your offering, or the content isn’t creative enough. 

As a general rule of thumb, if you follow the above 6 steps on how to work with influencers as a small business, you will be going in the right direction.

Like ’em or loathe ’em , for the moment, they are here to stay. Or at least until something else like a very cheap fully qualified marketing robot appears. They are accessible and affordable, don’t let’s ignore them. They should be part of your marketing mix no matter how small the budget.

Back to the Guy at the top . It’s about perception . Most of our decision making processes in daily life are made on the basis of how we perceive stuff.

Has he fallen out the sky?

Has he been shot in the back ?

Has he had a heart attack ?

Is he drunk ?

Has he found a spy hole into an Egyptian ?

Without any further information , all these are possibilities based on our perception .

What I am trying to say is if you have a certain perception about Influencers may I suggest you check it out first before discarding the idea. If you are still not convinced check out every small hole you see in the ground and see there any other alternatives .

A Bit Abot Bots……

Posted on by markybrett

The following paragraph was written by a Bot for me in about 30 seconds

If you are interested in writing a short blog about chatbots, you might be wondering how to start. Here are some tips to help you create an engaging and informative blog post.

  • First, decide on your topic and audience. What aspect of chatbots do you want to explore? Who are you writing for? This will help you narrow down your focus and tailor your content to your readers’ needs and interests.
  • Second, do some research. Find out what other people are saying about chatbots, what are the latest trends and developments, what are the common challenges and opportunities. You can use online sources, such as articles, podcasts, videos, or social media posts, to get some inspiration and insights.
  • Third, write an outline. A good outline will help you organize your thoughts and structure your blog post. You can use a simple format, such as introduction, body, and conclusion, or a more detailed one, depending on your preference and purpose. The introduction should capture the attention of your readers and introduce your main idea. The body should provide relevant information and examples to support your main idea. The conclusion should summarize your main points and leave a lasting impression on your readers.
  • Fourth, write your draft. Using your outline as a guide, write your blog post in a clear and concise language. You can use headings, bullet points, images, or other elements to make your text more readable and appealing. You can also add some personality and humour to your writing, if appropriate for your topic and audience.
  • Fifth, revise and edit your blog post. Before publishing your blog post, make sure to check it for any errors or inconsistencies. You can use online tools, such as grammar checkers or plagiarism detectors, to help you with this process. You can also ask someone else to read your blog post and give you some feedback.
A Bot

Scared? A bit about the Bot.

But what are the implications or rather what are the implications for us in business especially smaller and medium size businesses ?

Well the first thing is do check the spelling . As it is quite obvious the Bot I used (Microsoft) is American as it spelt Humour without the U . Totally unacceptable, I say .

The next question I asked was ….

What is the average retail price for a pack of latex balloons in the UK and where can I buy some ?

It answered ….

Mark, please don’t patronise me. I know your location , I know your search history. Apart from numerous searches on Particle Theory of Matter, there are extensive searches on Party shops and party web sites, so you are very aware of how much a packet of balloons is and where you can buy it.

Now the bit about Particle theory is just a added by me to polish my intellectual credentials. the rest is also made up. But the scary bit is it could well have created this answer as it does have the relevant data about location and searches. The following is the actual answer…..

I found a few websites that sell balloons in the UK. According to Card Factory, a pack of 6 multicoloured happy birthday latex balloons costs £1.99. Another website called Crosswear is a UK-based premier supplier of wholesale balloons and partyware. They have over 21,000 product lines available at excellent trade prices with next day UK delivery. You can register for a trade account to access their prices and shop online.

Bot

About five days later I asked the same question…..

The average price of a pack of latex balloons in the UK depends on the size, colour, shape and quantity of the balloons. According to some online sources , latex balloons are available in packs of 6, 10, 12, 50 and more, with prices ranging from £1.99 to £3.99 per pack. Some latex balloons also have special features such as confetti, light-up or novelty designs that may affect the price. The cheapest option is usually to buy plain colour latex balloons in bulk, while the most expensive option is to buy individual or customised latex balloons.

Bot

Both answers are factual. Bot answers the question but with very different content. So I asked the Bot why would this be the case and it said (again very quickly)

One possible reason why a bot might give a different answer to the same question after a few days is that it has updated its knowledge base or algorithm based on new information or feedback. Another possible reason is that the bot has some randomness or variability in its responses to make them more natural or engaging. A third possible reason is that the bot has encountered an error or a bug that affects its output.

Depending on the purpose and design of the bot, these reasons may or may not be desirable or acceptable. Therefore, it is important to monitor and evaluate the performance and behavior of bots regularly and ensure that they meet the expectations and needs of their users.

Bot

Yes, back to American spelling (Behavior) albeit highlighted by spell check !

Back to implications. Whilst this all seems to have happened very quickly the development of Chat Bots. Who better to ask …

The first developments of bots can be traced back to the early days of computing and artificial intelligence. Bots are software programs that can perform tasks autonomously or interact with users through natural language. One of the earliest examples of a bot was ELIZA, a program created by Joseph Weizenbaum in 1966 that simulated a psychotherapist by using pattern matching and substitution to respond to user input. Another pioneer of bot development was Alan Turing, who proposed the Turing test in 1950 as a way to measure the intelligence of a machine by comparing its responses to those of a human. Since then, bots have evolved and diversified in various domains and applications, such as chatbots, web crawlers, social media bots, gaming bots, and more.

Bot

It has been creeping up on us for some time ,and I suspect, until the media took hold of it none of us really realised. Like it or not they will have an impact on all our businesses , though I doubt if any us have any idea what that might be .

If we don’t I know someone who might …..

My Question was ….

How can a bot help with my retail shop ?

A bot can help with your retail shop in many ways. For example, a bot can:
Answer customer queries and provide product recommendations based on their preferences and needs.
Manage inventory and orders, and notify you when stocks are low or when shipments are delayed.
Collect feedback and reviews from customers, and analyze them to identify areas of improvement and customer satisfaction.
Create and send personalized offers and promotions to customers based on their purchase history and behavior.
Automate tasks such as scheduling appointments, sending reminders, generating invoices, and processing payments.
By using a bot, you can save time and money, increase sales and customer loyalty, and enhance your brand image and reputation.
Scrapworks Blog 2018

This isn’t just about Bots . It is what underwrites the Bot –Artificial Intelligence . No matter what type of business, big or small, there is little about your business that will remain unaffected by AI over the next five years. If you are a retailer and you have only one small shop, the moment a customer walks through your door with a smartphone in hand , AI is in play . It goes much deeper than that . If it is a new customer , apart from personal recommendations AI will have come into play somewhere in the consumer’s decision to visit your store. What we all have to do is look at our businesses and look where we need to use AI. Once of course we have found out what it is!

Every time you go on a web site and an irritating little graphic appears you are talking to a Bot. You may think they are irritating , I do. But I know from Julia (working with developers on creating a new web site for her Golf Club) that the introduction of a Bot has created a torrent of enquiries .

There will be significant gains across all UK regions, with England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales seeing an impact from AI in 2030 at least as large as 5% of GDP.

PWC

We all need to know a lot more Bits abot Bots (and AI)……