Tag: Party

The Experiential Economy! What is it?

Posted on by markybrett

What is it ?

It’s doing stuff !

Or rather, spending money on doing stuff.

It is not a new term, as it has been around since the early 2000s. The term was first used by 2 economists back in 1998, but the theory goes back a lot further to Alvin Toffler’s book The Future Shock, published in 1970. But it is the last twenty years, when it has become a very significant part of Consumer discretionary spending.

For investors continually looking out for the next big trend, it’s hard to ignore the sustained staying power of the consumer experience economy (both digital and in real-life) – expected to reach $2.1 trillion by 2032.

Nasdaq March 2024

So what sort of things are we looking at :

Indoor Crazy Golf

Indoor Archery

Darts

Indoor Amusement Arcades

There are few large towns in Europe that do not have at least one Escape Room experience.

These are just the tip of the iceberg, as the total economy includes Concerts, holidays, events, and a bucket load of other occasions where a single or group of consumers spend more on experiencing something as opposed to just buying a product, for the primary reward of enjoyment. This has an exponential impact on consumer spending within the wider economy.

Six in 10 (57 per cent) say they would rather spend money on a good experience than on buying material possessions, up 5 percentage points compared to corresponding Barclays research from 2018, and nearly two thirds (63 per cent) would rather tell people about something they have experienced rather than something they have bought. Similarly, four in 10 (44 per cent) are actively seeking out new and unique experiences to make the most of the summer – a figure that rises to 61 per cent for 18 to 34-year-olds.-Barclays Research 2024.

The figures are enormous. It is estimated that the Glastonbury Festival contributes over £160 million to the UK economy. Eating out, new outfits and Taylor-Swift-themed afterparties were also set to contribute to an overall boost of £997m to the UK economy (BBC March 2024). There is nothing new about festivals or concerts, but what are relatively new are, as above, the immersive experiences

The obvious losers in this are those in Hospitality. But I think that is sort of missing the point. Every retail outlet that looks for the discretionary spend can lose out, and in many cases, probably are. Hospitality is part of the Experience Spend, or certainly should be. Yet Pubs,and restaurants in the UK are all facing tough times. It is no longer just about throwing pints down your neck or eating as much as you possibly can in the ‘all you can eat’ buffets.

If your business is not an obvious player in this market, how do you access this spend? With difficulty. Within my own marketplace of Party, it is really important that you keep well informed of any of these events that maybe occurring within your locality, as there will be opportunities to attract participants spend particularly where there is any level of dress-up involved (See below where both Glastonbury and Music concerts attract a level of dressup)

There is, often, a more deep-seated problem with independent businesses both in hospitality and retail. Many tend to be reactive and not proactive. Locally to me, there are many restaurants, a large number struggling with the lack of spend. About seven months ago, there was a new player in town. A great deal of money had been spent on refurbishing an existing operation that was not doing especially well. That was just the beginning. From Day One, it has been a roaring success.

Why so? The offering is first class, insofar as the service is top notch (much of the team is very young and inexperienced – it is about leadership and training), the food and drink are excellent, and there is a terrific atmosphere. But it does not stop there. They are constantly engaging with their client base. There are the obvious occasions, such as Mother’s Day & Father’s Day, Easter, but they pounce on every possibility. Only recently, it was apparently National Fish & Chip week. Virually every week, they give a reason (and small incentives) to visit their operation. Most of the competition will be offering great food, good service, and possibly fair prices but they are not engaging.

There is a distinct vibe amongst many; It is very tough out there. There is a cost of living crisis. The consumer is not spending. Of course, there is a lot of truth in those few words, apart from two words in particular: Not spending. They are spending, but they don’t have so much to spend . Or that can be filtered a little further, there is a chunk of the population who have less to spend and they are spending it elsewhere.

None of this is unique to the UK economy; it is reflected in most European States. There are plenty of universal challenges to Retailers of any sort. Very recently, a report in the UK illustrated that food sales were down in May. It was suggested that some of this may be due to the new weight loss drugs and the consumer dramatically altering (or being altered) their eating and drinking habits. Clearly, this will not only impact food stores but a whole chunk of hospitality. Those offering ‘all you can eat buffets‘ will have to be especially creative. ‘All you can eat salad ‘ doesn’t have quite the same ring .

Whenever you are looking at your takings and consider that the problem is entirely that the Consumer has nothing less to spend, just think of this weekend (last weekend June 2025).

UK -Glastonbury -210,000 people have paid £373 per ticket (£78 million +)(cheapest ticket, there are VIP packages) plus their ex’s.

Beyonce’s recent 6 performances at the grounds of Tottenham Hotspur Stadium attracted 275,000 grossing £45 million.

There is some spare cash around; you just have to find ways for your business to have its share.

Are you an Exhibitionist ?

Posted on by markybrett

I am not.

Or rather not in the way displayed by the guy above.

I am, in terms of probably having been an exhibitor at about 140 trade exhibitions during my working life time. Over 80% of those I have been involved in the building and taking down of said exhibition stands. Moreover for the last twenty years plus I have been a Director of Exhibition Company. If that makes me an exhibitionist in the same way as someone who does art is an artist , then so be it.

I return to this subject on occasion, as it is sort of the end of the season for my market place in terms of significant trade shows (party, Christmas, toys and cards) so the issues , and they are mainly issues, are fresh in my head. For purposes of my own clarity of thought, something quite difficult for me to achieve, I shall split this into three sections, Organiser, Exhibitor and Visitor (Buyer).

ORGANISER

Like anything, there are good and bad. As a generalisation they fall into two camps: Big & Small. The Big ones in my experience are the worst offenders . By ‘offenders’ I mean rubbish organisers.

My personal experience of large organisations running trade shows is down to one Exhibition and many different companies running it over at least forty five years(at The NEC, in total it has been running for over 70 years) . The Show concerned is the The Spring fair held every year at the NEC in Birmingham in the UK . It became one of the largest English Speaking Consumer Goods B2B exhibition in the world . The breadth of product ran from Furniture, Fashion, Jewellery , through to Luggage, Household and even Party . It filled all 20 Halls (190,000 sqm or 2,000,000 sqft) . There were over 3000 exhibitors and upwards of 70,000 visitors from all over the world . It has an extraordinary location , in that it is in walking distance of Birmingham Airport , Mainline train station (direct from Birmingham Central & London Euston) and quite literally minutes away from an extensive Motorway network , which can take you all the way the Glasgow, London, Manchester & Newcastle without a traffic light. A great deal has changed since 1976 when it first opened and most Exhibitions (Worldwide) have suffered falling numbers, both in terms of exhibitors and potential buyers . Yet the decline with this show has been even more dramatic, now not being able to fill 8 Halls and around only 1200 exhibitors.

How So ?

Like many large operators an element of arrogance. When the show was full and there were waiting lists there was a great deal of ‘you will do what we want you to do even if that is not best for your company ‘ attitude. During later years as the decline (partly due to the changing profile of the retail market place )this persisted but in a different way even under different owners . This manifested itself in many ways such as constantly re-organising Halls , re-organising stand locations ,even when being promised a stand location if booked early only to be moved . This happened three times to a friend of mine in 2023 .

Then there was the year that they proposed parking charges, suggesting somehow this was good thing. There was uproar and they capitulated . In 2023 they ( with a fanfare ) were going to add a substantial (additional I may add) marketing fee to each exhibitor for the use of contact software which buyers would use to make 15 minute slot appointments on stands. Once again claiming this was an amazing opportunity (obligatory) for every exhibitor . Following, what was probably an exhibition first at least in the UK, Industrial Action(better name for gentle riot) at the Autumn Fair . Another 180 degree decision making process. And finally (trust me there are lots more) in an email to prospective visitors they trumpeted wonderful new benefits eg Extra seating in the Halls (or rather aka lack of exhibition stands ) and a happy hour drinks late afternoon for buyers . Well thanks very much exhibition organiser for a super way of sucking the potential buyer away from visiting stands. That said if it did happen I don’t know of any buyer that made use of it.

For Good Organisers trying looking at smaller shows (Christmas & Gift in Harrogate for example ) . Of course I am biased .

Exhibitors

Organisers sell space and market the show to potential buyers. Exhibitors rent the space dress it, display their product and focus on getting their target buyer to come to the show and visit the stand . Simples, as a well known Meerkat says. For the most part exhibitors do this well. Well at least creating a welcoming and effective area of display. What some do , and it is a minority but a largish minority, they rely on the Organiser to bring in the punter. They have a responsibility but if you are a exhibitor, who has spent a lot of time and money on your space, it is you that should target your potential customer base and get the visitors to come and to come to your stand. If a major buyer attends the show and does not come to your stand it is not the fault of the Organiser. The blame lies elsewhere.

If a group of buyers that you would expect to see are at the show but don’t come to you. It is not the fault of the Organiser. The blame lies elsewhere.

If those buyers pass your stand and don’t come on . It is not the fault of the Organiser. The blame lies elsewhere.

Lastly, if they do come and never buy from you it is not the fault of the Organiser. The blame lies elsewhere.

The exhibitor has to work hard to find out who they want to come , then if they are coming inducing them to visit your stand and when they do make it an interesting and informative experience.

Seeing it from both sides of the counter , I find it quite extraordinary that companies both big and small who have spent not an inconsiderable sum on showing at a trade exhibition and then display (sometimes very poorly- display that is ) a very laissez faire attitude towards the very organisation’s they presumably want to trade with or at very least open a channel of communication. Then to make it even worse fail to follow up after the show.

Buyers (Visitors)

There are Good and Bad. Without argument there are considerably less in number -no matter the market – than there were twenty years . Take my own industry, there were over 350 wholesalers ( of various shapes and sizes) of Greeting cards about twenty five years ago, maybe thirty. If only half of those visited any one relevant trade show there would be three to four colleagues, from most of the visiting companies, equalling over 500 visitors. Today there are barley a dozen (and that is generous figure ) still trading today. If two colleagues from half of the companies came to a show today , it equals 10 visitors. Moreover that 10 would each spend less time at the show as against the 500+.

Unfortunately the Good & Bad have a similar impact on those depleting numbers.

Bad

Looking at Bad, is actually quite complex. As Bad can mean various things.

  • Buyers who just never go to a trade show. If you don’t you quite literally do not know what you are missing . It maybe nothing but you don’t know unless you go
  • Buyers who go but don’t look . Rather they do look but only at their existing suppliers
  • Buyers that suffer from that horrendous affliction of Trade show over enthusiasm. I have seen the symptoms so many times . They visit your stand . Are very enthusiastic and tell you to contact them afterwards. When doing so ( contacting them that is ) never take take or return your calls. Even worse they take your call and haven’t a ‘scooby do ‘ as to what you are talking about . The worst scenario which has only happened to me a couple of times. They actually do take your call. They make an appointment . Then when you do turn up, they don’t or ask why are you here ?
  • Those that that don’t tell you who they are . I appreciate that some of the bigger buyers don’t want to be hassled but I’m sure they are professional enough to be able handle unwanted advances . If you, the seller, don’t know who you are talking to, you can’t best inform or help them.

Good

  • Those that spend good quality time at relevant trade shows , talking to existing suppliers about future developments in addition to looking for those who may have products and services that they would not have come across and would add value to their business.
  • Those that understand that exhibitions are not just about buying stuff or looking for stuff to buy. They are also about networking. Talking to suppliers and maybe competitors. Very often it is the only time especially with smaller operators that they get to see wider pictures of what is going on in their market places . It can go further . Looking at trends not necessarily directly related to your own product or service category but those areas that indirectly affect your business.

How about that ? It’s much easier being a Good buyer than a Bad buyer.

Over the last fifteen years or so the role of the Trade Exhibition has changed enormously . The three parties (organisers, exhibitors and visitors) that do not recognise this, will be party to the continuing decline of trade shows. They are no longer places for taking or placing orders. They are no longer events that will attract visitors in the numbers of days long gone.

If the Organiser does not provide a facility that is affordable and welcoming, the exhibitor will no longer exhibit. The Organiser will fail . However if the exhibitor and visitor still wants a relevant event, an alternative Organiser will appear. If they decide they don’t need a show then a show won’t happen .

So in conclusion Organisers need to raise their game

organizatores certaminis, cave

Trade show organisers, be aware

A bad exhibitor’s business won’t necessarily fail because they have a rubbish stand . It won’t help but it won’t fail.

A Buyer’s business won’t necessarily fail because they don’t go to an exhibition. It won’t help but it won’t fail.

Eventually an Organiser’s business will fail if it is a rubbish Organiser.

The Power of Colours….Or is Beige really that Exciting ?

Posted on by markybrett

Julia is an Artist. I have spent the major part of my working life in the Party Industry. Anybody who may know me would not say I was someone really into Colour. Anybody who knows me well, would same exactly the same .

Yet…..On so many levels , I am mesmerised by colour. It plays such a monumental part in all our lives , eating, dressing, transport, health through fitness, travel, education to politics, science and religion. Colours are a predominate factor in all our lives, for good or bad .

It dresses you, envelopes you, invites you, beguiles, encourages, politicises, hurts, invigorates, creates, good or evil, you cannot avoid it.

Since I started posting I have assiduously avoided making any sales pitches. This once, I make no apology for a little pitch. Latex Occidental ( A Mexican Latex Balloon manufacturer – the largest in the World -Brand Globos Payaso) is kicking off 2022 with a programme called the The Power of Colours.

Initially, I thought Nice idea ….The more I thought about it , the stronger the phrase became until I thought that’s a great idea . I suspect we are all guilty for taking colours for granted . The concept is so much part of our daily lives that we rarely think about it in its entirety .

Courtesy GRAF1X.com

Party Product is all about Colour. It may seem strange but there was a time when most disposable tableware was white and white only . Latex balloon manufacturers may have made maybe ten, tops twelve colours. Foil balloon makers started with silver only (came from the base colour of Mylar- I think). Drinking straws where white . Now, Colour is (obviously to some) party paramount. There are loads of influences, the fashion industry, home decor but much of what happens today , within our market comes from Social Media. This has a huge impact especially within areas such as party decor and balloon decoration. During the last two years, colours that have often lay dormant within suppliers warehouses suddenly burst into favour. When asked what was trending in their area, one of my very knowledgeable clients responded succinctly ….

Various shades of poo !

As a consequence……

Beige came of Age !

Me 😁 January 2022

Everything that you can see in the world around you presents itself to your eyes only as an an arrangement of different colours

John Ruskin

Colours express the main psychic functions of man

Carl Jung

The Pantone Institute, the ‘go to’ organisation for world wide colour specifications since the early 1960’s , forecast the ‘colour of the year’ . This process is carried out by bringing together colour specialists from throughout the world as to what they think will be the trend for the coming year . 2022 it is Very Peri. A colour specifically invented and inspired from A Happy Periwinkle. Or in a more simplistic manner,is a new shade of Blue.

Within the Party Market, we are very fortunate in being immersed in the world of colour. It has spawned a wealth of creativity, especially within the world of Balloon Decorating. At the very same time, more especially over the last 2 years, there is much heightened consumer awareness of the vast number of colour combinations available. It is generally accepted that there are about 10 million colours that the human eye can detect . That’s a heck of a lot (in this case heck is a lot bigger than vast) of possible combinations.

Courtesy of Latex Occidental (Globos Payaso) -Susana Guerrero

Despite the all pervasiveness of colour there has been little scientific research into its impacts. Or rather there has been quite a bit but little agreement. Aristotle (not our dog in this instance) made the first acknowledgment of colour , however his conclusion was that colour derived from God. White being good and black evil. I think whatever your belief you would comfortably find the problem with that thesis .

Sir Isaac Newton, by analysing sunlight through prisms isolated the colours of the rainbow. Which is a bit handy as the following possibility, would made the world a very different place ..

…if the Sun’s Light consisted of but one sort of Rays, there would be but one Colour in the whole World…

Sir Isaac Newton -Optics

Which conclusively illustrates that Beige is incredibly exciting …..

For those of us, albeit in a very small way, who have the opportunity to influence the use of colour in their working practices, should think about phrase of the power of colours, as apposed to the use of colours. Many probably do it anyway without actually saying it. Like many things saying it out aloud often gives it a stronger impact . But I still be wary about shouting out that beige is exciting ….

Brexit …..aaargh….Jan 1 …brrr…Customs… aaargh !

Posted on by markybrett

Over the last four years , I have tried as much as possible not to post about Brexit. However, from a purely practical point of view I have relented, in the hope I can inform in an apolitical way.

Unbiased (I keep biting my lip even when I only write those words), I am going to try and put some of facts down which will hopefully inform traders who have been buying from suppliers within the EU, on what they need to do. I would like write about exporting to the EU , but that is even less clear and to be honest my interest is in stuff coming from the EU.

So lets start with some facts. There are 11,000 containers of UK Government PPE at Felixstowe docks. Ships coming into both Felixstowe and Harwich have been subject to delays for some time now. The Customs IT systems are not fully tested yet. Every UK point of entry ie ports & airports invariably run different types of software for customs declarations . It is muted there will be all singing, all dancing single system by 2025 . No matter whether there is a deal or no deal on Jan1 2021 things will change big time. If you did not really understand the words ‘free movement of goods’ you will then .

What’s to do then ? If you import absolutely anything from the EU or intend to then the following 2 steps are essential.

  1. Apply for an EORE ( pronounced by HMRC as EOREE. Well at least someone has a sense of humour or irony) .
  2. Apply for deferred Custom Declarations and Vat payment
Eoree -Amused me !

You have to do No 1 before you No 2 (that may chime with some- schoolboy humour). You can only apply for 2 if you have not been a naughty person with HMRC. If you are having difficulty loading the HMRC site to download this form, it maybe the browser, as it only works on certain browsers. But HMRC Help Line doesn’t seem to know that. It also doesn’t explain the forms you may or may not need. The one that you probably do is called C1202 as it is a direct debit mandate for HMRC. Without this you are unlikely to get approved . Here’s a good ‘un, you have to complete the form online but then you have to print and post it. This implies that they could have anywhere between 100-200,000 postal applications between now and Christmas, which they will then have to handle manually. Having just had two weeks locally of no postal service, the signs are pretty ominous.

If your application for deferred status is confirmed it allows you to do 2 things …

  1. From the Jan 1 to June 30th you can defer making your customs declarations. But you must keep a record of all your transactions during that period. I will itemise the data you need later.
  2. Whilst in the EU there was an agreement that all VAT transactions between states did not carry VAT on the invoice. This stops on Jan 1. From then on, there will be no VAT on an invoice from an EU supplier but you will have to record the VAT that would have been due on that same invoice in your VAT returns.

The Following list are the core items you will need to record for customs declarations :

Customs Procedure Code

Supplier

Date

Consignment no/ Invoice no

Product code

Description

Tariff code

Tariff Rate

Cost Price

Quantity

Total Due

Without doubt I will have missed certain elements but these are the basics. If a deal is reached, I get the impression that declarations will still have to be made as to what they contain is another matter . One thing is for certain is that you will have to record the Vatable amount as that will certainly be due on July 1. I cannot speak for the Northern Ireland Protocol, as that is another layer of political customs speak. Nor do I have any knowledge of specialised products such as plants , food, oil, gas, aero engines, airplane parts, chemicals, drugs………All of which I assume comes into the definition of oven ready deals.

None of this helps with the importing from nations not in the EU but have free trade agreements with the EU. There are fifty plus such nations . We have made a couple of deals notably Japan, Switzerland , Norway and Iceland but there are a number of significant trading nations where we will no longer have a free trade deal such as Mexico, Vietnam and Turkey. And I am not so sure there is a lot of help available. There are grants for training on customs procedures and there are also grants if you want to set yourself up as a Customs Agent ! I think that in itself tells a story. There are also many HMRC webinars . Having recently sat through one , I would not raise your hopes of celestial enlightenment . Maybe others are better .

I lied. At the start I said I was going to be apolitical . I have been . Now I am not. The UK Government has been floundering about in very deep waters dealing with Covid. So has every other National Government. No matter what shade of political belief , no Government would have got it right. It is one of life’s undeterminables. And it will continue to be so. The Government has a duty to preserve and protect the lives of its citizens. Where there are definitive actions that could be taken they should take them.

Which brings me back to Brexit. I am a remain voter accepting of the UK decision to leave. What I cannot agree with is reckless political ideology that puts our nation in harms way or at very least increases the risk to both health and wealth. One of the underlying principles of paying off the huge debts that have been incurred (quite rightly) is the returning to some form of economic growth. Even (at least most ) political Brexiteers agreed that the first months of Brexit would be very hard on the economy, and that was pre-covid. Consequently , I get very wound up by superficial ads with actors, apparently in large warehouses, saying we are ready are you? When they, the Government are very evidently not. Moreover, how would you expect hundreds and thousands of businesses that have currently got to deal with more economic, financial and emotional hurdles to deal with than at any other time since the 2nd world war .

So please tell me UK Government why you have chosen not to doing anything about the one thing you did have control of ie Brexit Transition you chose to stick with political ideology . That is to say you kept your snouts well and truly stuck in a political bucket . Take back control , whatever that means but do so when you when can at least see the steering wheel. As a consequence we can look to at very least six months of even more supressed if not depressed growth rates. Ta very much .

The Numbers that Never Add Up……

Posted on by markybrett

There are those who may read this and saying I am talking about Statistics not numbers. There are, of course those who will say I am talking utter tosh. They maybe right but if you start any conversation about statistics, the line would go dead (or it would have done when we telephoned each other with telephones) . Anyway what do you work with in statistics , err numbers…If they think I talk tosh i have no counter argument.

During a time when everyone is trying to seek the truth about anything (not that I think finding the truth is anymore difficult than any other time), there is a tendency to believe that if you are given a number in answer to any question then it must be true. 20 divided by 5 = 4. No argument, it is a truth of ‘sorts’ .

One late winter day in 1971, 50 pennies= approx. 20% of £1, the following day, 50 pennies = 50% of £1. What changed ? The numbers in £1(or decimalisation for those who don’t know or can’t remember). So the number 1 did not change but the bits of it did.

A situation oft related is if you take the average wage of those travelling on a particular bus is say £15000 , and then Bill Gates gets on the bus, the average earnings run into billions . So what sort of average is that when only 1 out of say 40 is anywhere close to the average? Now, before I get thumped by someone saying a statistician would always knock of the extremes in any data set, but most of us aren’t statisticians and even then they often have their own interpretations. But we will come back to that .

Blind conviction in decision making that is based on metrics and figures that don’t actually hold up are running rampant

Simon Dutton .Founder of specialist Data Science, Machine Learning & Analytics Development Company

I am not going to even think of using the Damn lies and statistics as it is cliched and not helpful. The reality is the number on its own is a truth . What you do with that number , in what context , how it is interpreted , how it is used and when it is used are only a few of the many variables that can make that number untrue so to speak. The purveyor of the number is the one who needs be questioned .

Playing Bingo, you can be pretty sure the number is what its says on the ball. If the caller says then umber 66 , then that is exactly what it is a truth, you block out 66 on your card. 66 is deemed a ‘truth’.

For me a very simple everyday commercial example would be ……

That is all well and good my good Sir, but you are offering me a discount of 20%. I need a discount of 40% !

My reply

My very fine Customer, that can of course be arranged . But (whispering to myself) I will have to increase the starting price by 20%.

Here’s another….

Well tell me young man (yes some do address me like that), your 100 bestsellers ….

I am sorry no can do…100 bestsellers does not tell you anything . It only tells you what products we sold the most of , at any given time period, that does make them best sellers. There are loads of reason why we have sold a lot but none of may equal a ‘bestseller’ in the true ,meaning of the word

These maybe very simplistic (but true) , however in some different format or any other this type of discussion. it actually happens, a lot. The general answer is discount off what..Most consumers must be fed up to the back teeth of ‘Sales’ with up to 70% off. As far as best sellers are concerned the real numbers are the products that will sell well for the client to whom you are talking .

Off what ?

Everyday life revolves around numbers, our weight, our height,calories, how much we earn and spend , GDP, how much, how many, when, where, who, what , they involve a number somewhere. So you would think we should get them right but in so much of our lives decisions are made where the number is wrong or rather wrong in any one context.

Government Policy is underwritten by numbers (and of course political ideology) . This is directly from the Office for National Statistics(its that word again)

The average family size for women born in 1942 – for example – was 2.29 children per mother. In contrast, their daughters’ generation – represented by women born in 1969 – had on average 1.91 children per mother. Meanwhile, women born in 1984 had fewer children on average (1.02) by their 30th birthday than women born in 1969 – who had 1.12 children by the same age.

ONS 2019

How many women do you know had 1.12 Children ? Or even 1.02 ? In this context none of those numbers are actually real. If you have people in a room and their respective weights are 50kg,51kg,52.5kg,57.8kg,56.25gk, the average weight would be 53.51kg . Yet no one in that room would be the average weight. Within this simple example lies so many issues with health advice, BMI, Calorie intake, healthy weight and absolutely everything that is based upon an average. A male weighing 120kg and 6ft 2″ tall would be considered overweight and unhealthy but not if he plays in the back row for an International Rugby team.

Currently we are being swamped, daily, by numbers relating to Covid 19. More often than not they are used by politicians and journalists alike to make comparisons. Comparing ‘what’ with ‘what’. One set of data from one nation will be totally incomparable to another, as the way the data is sourced will be completely different from each and every nation. This is true of many national stats. Take GDP for example . Whose is the greater China or Luxembourg? Easy you may say….Luxembourg …well it is is if you evaluate it per head !

Simon Dutton .Founder of specialist Data Science, Machine Learning & Analytics Development Company

Single GDP comparisons are in themselves unprecise as mostly they are expressed in Dollars. Dollars like all currencies fluctuate in value. Therefore that value will change depending on what currency that is relevant to you. Example, if you took the UK GDP of the UK in dollars four weeks ago it would have shown one figure but if you translated it today that would have shown GDP growth because of the weakness of the dollar. Yes , I know we don’t measure it in dollars . But international analysts do. What I am trying to say that it is very easy to manipulate the numbers . Of course the numbers don’t manipulate themselves. Much like algorithms, that extraordinary word that implies data lead intelligence. As we are rapidly finding out these wonder ‘rithms‘ don’t create themselves, the data, that they are made up of, comes from us ‘umans . We decide on the numbers that will go into any algorithm, which is why they are often wrong as we discover on a pretty frequent basis.

10,000 steps a day has become the norm for a healthy body. Where did this number come from. It was entirely arbitrary . A Japanese Company company , on the back of the successful Tokyo Olympics, created the world’s first step counter Manpo-Kei , translated it means Ten Thousand Steps. This fabricated number, from a very successful marketing campaign, became the world’s (including the WHO) daily walking benchmark . It was never based on any science.

Advertisement for Manpo-Kei

The following two graphs (apologies for quality, tried but failed dismally to replicate them rather more professionally.) Show the same numbers in two very different ways. They measure the change in world climate from 1820-2015. The first one shows the temperature change (Fahrenheit) , as does the second (albeit in centigrade) . However, the second only show the change whereas the first is set against an entire temperature range making the changes appear much smaller. Or depending on your point of view the second illustrating it on a much smaller range !

Both illustrations come from the Book ‘The Number Bias’ by Sanne Blauw

Inflation is measured by all Developed Nation Governments , for a whole bunch of reasons, mainly to do with them , and they are all measured differently . In the UK were are really lucky as we have 2, CPI and RPI. What these both are and why both exist is an other story but essentially they are made from what are lightly called ‘baskets’ Probably there are created by ‘basket cases’ (English slang for stupid people) . These baskets are made up from lists of goods and services that we are all supposed to use regularly .

Some of the items are power drills, beers in night club, avocados, raspberries, 65″ TV , women’s gym wear, acoustic guitar, gym equipment and……. To some these may seem very representative of their life but to others will have no relevance what so ever. The inflation number is supposed to be a guide as to what is happening to prices. Yet if you are on the breadline and your rent has just gone up, the bus fare to work(if you have a job) has had a hike, then being told inflation number is only 1% , as fuel has plummeted, as has the price of 65″ TV , is going to mean diddly squat.

So next time a salesperson comes into your business telling you wow i’ve got some great numbers to show you, just be sure exactly who they are great for …

Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare

René Descartes-Philosopher & Mathematician) (today he would have included women, I think (oh yes, I think, therefore I am….another of his -Descartes that is))