Category: Uncategorized

Encumbered by Numbers !

Posted on by markybrett
  • 5.25% Current UK Bank rate (August 2023)
  • 7.9% UK inflation rate (June 2023)
  • 2.9% drop in house prices in the UK (July 22 -July 23)
  • 2.25 % Bank of England May 2022 forecast for Bank Rate May 2023
  • 96% of GDP to 267% in 50 years’ time in 2071/72 (UK Office Office of Budget Responsibility)Net debt as a share of GDP rising – When has any UK Government- probably includes any western democracy- been interested in anything longer than the next General election
  • $300 trillion Global debt(December 2022 -World Economic Forum) (US accounts for just over 10%)
  • £0.70p average price of a pint of milk in the UK August 2023 (Office of National Statistics)
  • 1.5% increase in UK Retail sales July 2023
  • 1.9% increase in UK Retail footfall (same period)
  • 3 in November -The age of our Dog Ari
  • 384 – BC the year Aristotle was born
  • 7000 – the number of trade prices I am supposed to remember (or so think some of my customers)
  • 5.6 million -number Airbnb listings worldwide
  • 7.9 billion -world population 2023
  • 2.3 million US properties underwent foreclosure during the Sub Prime market in the USA between 2007 & 2008
  • -4.1% (note this is a minus figure) China’s deflation figure August 2023
  • 47.8% Turkish inflation rate – July 2023
  • 64 million- number of shipping containers world wide
  • 29 million beef cattle in the US in 2023
  • 20 million penguins on Antartica
  • 392,000 hotel rooms in Spain
  • £84 billion -valuation of Pinduoduo ( owner of Temu latest Chinese market place)
  • 9 million downloads of above Temu app in the U.K. , since launch in the U.K. four months ago (August 2023)
  • 91 indictments faced by Donald Trump
  • 3-1 the odds on Trump winning Presidential election in 2024

The point being….. We are bombarded by numbers every single minute of the day . Most we ignore but most are actually interrelated, and in some way effect all of us either personally, socially or in our working day. All of the above (with maybe the exception of the name of our dog) are interconnected in some way or another . Its a bit like the Chaos Theory of the butterfly that flaps its wings in Tokyo and ends up with a huge storm in the Mediterranean. This may not be an exact hypothesis but hopefully it gives as a reasonable picture as any Mathematical Theory does.

What we have to do is try to unravel those numbers that come to us and we think have an influence on our own businesses .

Unravelling is not an easy task, apart from anything many of those relevant numbers change . Only this week the UK HMRC stated that the tax take for first half of the year was higher than expected . Thus making the public purse look healthier . How so ? Everyone, whether companies, employed or self employed or retired and receiving unearned income, has to make a tax return. That Return determines how much tax is due . So where does all these unexpected tax come from ? Some shady deals where some weird taxpayers want to overpay their tax ? Me think not .

All of a sudden underlying inflation in the UK is dropping quicker than expected , when only last month we were being told it was very stubborn. So if the number makers cant get it right what chance have the rest of us.

My view of numbers is to look at your own. That is is to say if your operation and your customer base is still spending make sure it continues . By that I mean there are many retailers who look at the numbers (cost of living, inflation, media reports ) and think ‘must batten down the hatches‘. This usually involves buying no stock . So as they have no stock , they sell less and are proved right and buy even less. Look at what is happening around you, not what others are telling is happening elsewhere.

Consumer confidence jumped five points to minus 25 this month , beating analysts’ expectations and up from 30 points in the previous month, according to the research firm GfK, which has been tracking the data since the 1970s.

An improvement in expectations for personal finances over the coming year and better predictions on how the UK economy will perform pulled the overall index higher.

The August confidence bump indicates households were growing more optimistic over the summer before a recent string of downbeat economic data renewed concerns about the UK slipping into recession.

The Times August 25/08/2023

Vs

The net balance of retail sales in August tumbled to minus 44 per cent, down sharply from minus 25 per cent in July. It was the biggest drop in sales since March 2021, according to the latest CBI distributive trades survey.

The Times August 25/08/2023

Same Newspaper , Same day (they were actually on opposite pages ) 2 very different sets of numbers .

Many a good retailer has told me that an empty hook doesn’t pay your rent . If you can only fill it with product that nets you a penny . That penny is better than nothing . If a customer walks into a store and there is nothing to buy, then that is exactly what will happen. They will buy nothing . But they will go elsewhere and buy that something. I experience empty shelves or hooks virtually everyday . Every empty shelf or empty hook= Potential Lost business and customer.

The media is stuffed full of numbers and most have some form of veracity or at very least they have at a point in time and place. But Context is the critical consideration . How do they relate to my business ? More importantly how do we react to those that are relevant .

If your business is not doing well, it is too easy just to blame it on the cost of living crisis, inflation, or the economic situation . Any one, or all, of those may indeed be the reason but those are not in your control . You can’t effect any of those . There maybe other factors either local conditions or something within your operation that you can affect. If your business is doing well , the very same things apply , but look at why you are doing well and don’t let the negatives alter your course unless there are very direct or obvious reasons for doing so.

Don’t let the Number Encumber ….

Big Discount… Off What ?

Posted on by markybrett

“In our view it will never be cheap enough and in Boeing’s view it is always far too cheap.”

Michael O’Leary-CEO Ryanair, after placing an order with Boeing for $40 billion -before discounts

Within any commercial environment , I don’t care what type of clients you have , they will always ask for discounts in one way or another.

It is expected . The frustration, occurs, for me anyway , when they don’t really know what they are talking about.

The conversation may go something like .

Well what sort of discount are you going to give me ? ‘cos Extra Cheap Super Supplies Ltd gives me 40% off if I buy 50 of their top of the range Super Widget.

What is the net price of their Super Widget after discount?

What do you want to know that for ?

Because 40% off Super Supplies Ltd price equals £0.90 per super widget and our Super Widget less 10% equals £0.85p

I still want me 40%

You can’t help but want to throttle them. I had a wholesale customer, a number of years ago , who was doing a seasonal promotion selling an item at a very keen net price. He had flyers printed ( as you did then) and sent them to all his client base. It did not work because a competitor was doing a promotion on exactly the same product but giving a big discount instead of a net price. The net price wholesaler abandoned this type of promotion and went back to discount only promos. The Discount wholesaler was 15% more expensive than the Net wholesaler .

At Retail the issues are a lot more complex. An independent retailer faces very different problems to that of a multiple. Invariably, the independent will have to reduce margins to offer favourable discounts. The multiple will expect the discount to be funded by the supplier. As to whether the consumer is getting a bargain is up for debate .

In May this year, Boohoo made headlines for agreeing to pay $197m (£159m) to settle a lawsuit accusing the retailer of using “deceptive” discounts across its fashion brands. 

Raconteur June 2023

In the UK there is a law in place to obviate false discounts. However, this particular law is much and easily abused . An article has to have been offered in that location for at least 28 days at a higher price before any discount is promoted. So what happens? 2 common outcomes

  1. Retailer buys ‘specials’ from a supplier puts them on the shelf for 28 days at an artificial price the offers a special sale price, which is a lot closer to real price.
  2. Retailer quite simple has product on shelf at inflated prices and then offers a sale price which only reflects their usual margin.

“Artificial inflation is unfortunately incredibly common in retail and not just in the fashion industry,” 

Nick Drewe, founder of discount platform WeThrift

Online is a lot more murky .

One in 10 deals on Black Friday last year was fake, she says, with 25% of products more expensive than at the start of November. 

Liisa Matinvesi-Bassett, UK country manager at price comparison platform PriceSpy.

Despite all this, discounting remains a significant tool in the commercial box. How it is used effectively is perhaps more of a dark art.

That dark art is, I believe, well practiced by Pizza Outlets. As a consumer (only very occasionally) it really annoys me. Pizza Hut, Dominoes , Papa Johns, they are all at it. Their list prices of Pizzas are exorbitant. You can buy a far better quality pizza in any supermarket chain for a fraction of the price . Worse still, you buy one in a good restaurant for less than the list price of the main Pizza franchises . They make the sale by artificial discounts. There are BOGOF’s, buy one family sized and get one free or a bottle of coke and a tub of ice cream free, The week’s special, the summer’s special , Halloween special . The variety of offer is endless . Yet none of these specials equal that of a recent Sainsbury offer

2 pizzas and a tub of Ben & Jerry’s for a fiver.

I don’t really get it. Most of the other major fast food outsets don’t use this strategy, McDonalds , and KFC sometimes do the odd major promo like lending you Florida for a day or a plastic toy but their pricing strategy is not dependent on discounting . With Pizzas it seems part of the DNA.

There are many dangers in its misuse

The devaluation of the product or service

The innate possibility of actually foregoing volume . For example within the grocery industry the ‘BOGOF’( buy one get one free) can severely negate volume if incorrectly used . If you sell a bar of chocolate and you get one free , you will probably sell more as the consumer will eat more . However , if you do the same with a box of tea they are unlikely to drink much more tea and just use it to replace a future purchase.

The postponement of stock replacements if you know the supplier regularly discounts . This can also cause lost revenue by being unnecessarily out of stock.

The customer never trusting standard pricing.

Discount expectation.

Encouraging overstocking resulting in delayed restocking at normal prices.

The Benefits of Discounting

Entry to market

Defence of market share

Winning new customers

Assisting Customer promotions

Pre-empting competitive action

Genuine customer support

Developing customer loyalty

Much of it boils down to how you manage your discount strategy . None of it is much more that a little common sense and the understanding of your market place .

Customers need to ask questions (trade and consumer) of the discount they are being offered . The biggest being

1.Is it real -see Pizzas?

2.Do I need the product ?

3.Is everyone being offered it(b2b) if they are does it give me any advantage ?

4.Is it good stock ?

5.Is it a good value discount ?

6.Might there be a better one next week ? ( I get weekly offers to subscribe to the New York Times. There will be stuff like 24 hours to claim you 25% discount. Then the following week it says the same but the discount is 50% and so it goes on).

7.Will it help my business ?

8. If I take the deal do I need the product (or service)

9. Can I buy cheaper

10. Perhaps more importantly can I buy better ?

So what to do ?

I think the above 10 points are a good starting place . Discounts are a very strong tool for the seller and can be a good opportunity for the buyer , just approach them with care.

There are no victories at discount prices

Dwight Eisenhower

I’m not completely sure I know what he means . I suspect it is something like there are no victories without a cost. It sort of makes sense but depends upon the context much like any discount .

Consumer or Business when offered a Discount ,think of it like a used car . Take a look under the bonnet (hood)first .

Are you under the Influence …..?

Posted on by markybrett

There are those who assume this Guy is completely plastered . There are then, those who think he is peering down a tiny hole in the paving through which he has found an Egyptian tomb stuffed full of wondrous treasures.

Whatever , I will return to this later or I may not .

Marketing evolves . Traders have been travelling to Market towns for millennia displaying and dwelling their wares . In 1902 The University of Pennsylvania offered the first Marketing Course. Professional market research started in the early 1950’s. Since then, there has been a massive influx of new tools that make up the marketing mix. The latest and perhaps one of the more controversial is that of the Influencer.

So what is Influencer marketing …

Influencer marketing is a collaboration between popular social-media users and brands to promote brands’ products or services. These partnerships have been going on informally since the dawn of social media. By 2009, they were sufficiently commonplace for the US Federal Trade Commission to step in and regulate them through the so-called Mommy Blogger law. (China, India, and the United Kingdom have introduced similar regulations.)

Since then, the market has grown astonishingly quickly: over the past five years, it has increased by more than 50 percent on platforms such as Instagram and YouTube (in Western countries) and Pinduoduo and WeChat (in China). This year, the influencer marketing economy was valued at $16.4 billion.

McKinsey April 2023

In one way or another Influencer Marketing has been going on since, certainly, the advent of TV advertising . Like it or not, consumers have bought Walkers Crisps, because of Gary Lineker, Nespresso because of George Clooney. But the current definition of an influencer is somewhat different as in most cases they did not start life as a celebrity and they work within a social media environment.

I was and am still not convinced by the idea. I think there is a growing understanding that these are people paid to give glowing reviews. Nothing new there, but as with endorsers rather than influencers it is unlikely they could swap brands quite so easily. That all said there are key attributes that can make them very useful tools in the marketing mix particularly with small companies and small budgets .

Just look at a very simple example of an Independent Retailer ( of any description), the use and relatively low cost of using an influencer with local knowledge and insight can, potentially, have a far quicker impact on the local community , or more especially the section of which you wish to target than any comparable marketing campaign such as local papers , leaflet drops or even local radio.

Many do or will try to do their own social media campaigns. They obviously cost less but I suggest that few are truly successful .

These figures come from an American agency (Social Shepherd) but nevertheless they seem to reflect what is happening elsewhere. Like any survey question it very much depends how the question is structured.

I have seen within the industry the impact of a good influencer. It was very impressive. The influencer took an relatively unknown Brand of product into the market virtually overnight. There were other factors. It was during Covid and there were supply issues nevertheless it very much shortened the passe of entry to market .

Here is quite a comprehensive guide from The Chartered Institute of Marketing. I have included it all as I think there is some very useful information here.

1. Identify your target customer/audience 

Knowing who you’re selling to is crucial and can often be mapped out using a buyer persona, which outlines your target customer’s demographics, challenges, motivations, and story. 

People typically buy for one of three reasons – to make money, save money, or look/feel good, so understanding how you tick one of those boxes is the first step. 

2. Outline your goals 

Having clear goals when creating an influencer marketing campaign is crucial but often overlooked. 

This includes your KPIs (key performance indicators), budget and OKRs (objective key results). Without these, you won’t have an easy way to determine whether your campaign is going in the right direction or whether you have a positive ROI (return on investment). 

3. Find where their “watering holes” are 

Successful influencer marketing campaigns depend on knowing where your target customers spend most of their time-consuming content and discovering products/services (their watering hole). This may be on one or many social media platforms, such as TikTok, Instagram or LinkedIn; it may even be blogs, in-person events or YouTube. 

To find this information out, you can either ask them directly or monitor social media activity to identify where your target customer engages with content most frequently.

4. Discover influencers at the watering hole 

Now you know where your buyers spend their time, it’s time to find influencers in that space. Fortunately, there are many tools and marketplaces you can use with advanced filtering to find these influencers, such as: 

  • Intellifluence: This is the most “complete” influencer marketplace, allowing you to find influencers across Facebook, TikTok, Instagram, LinkedIn, Twitter, Blogs, YouTube, and many more with advanced filtering options to find the right person for your niche. 
  • Influencity: Influencity is a great way to discover influencers suitable for your marketing campaign, whether you need 1 or 10 from the 70 million available. Influencity also has a free trial. 

Build a database of at least 10 influencers before moving to step 5, as it takes trial and error to find the right one for you. 

TIP: Buying followers and falsely inflating numbers is common in the industry, so check their numbers through tools such as MODASH. 

5. Reach out to them and discuss campaigns 

Now you have a list of influencers, it’s time to contact them to explore the idea of forming a partnership and engaging in a campaign. Below we have listed how to contact different types of influencers:

  • Instagram and TikTok: Often, their email will be displayed in their profile bio, or you can send them a dm. More prominent influencers will be looked after by a management agency that adds their own company email in an influencer’s bio. 
  • Blogs: The best way to get in touch with bloggers is via their email, contact page, or even partnership page. Top bloggers will even include their press kit (explained below) on their website to make it easy for brands to work with them (contact page example and partnership example).
  • LinkedIn and Twitter: Direct messages are best for these platforms. To maximise chances, drop them an email too.

When you reach out, always ask for their press kit, with screenshots of their analytics to prove the engagement figures (website clicks, views, comments, click-through-rates etc) they claim.

6. Set clear deliverables and keep performance indicators 

Now that you have a list of qualified influencers, it’s time to outline the clear deliverables and KPIs you expect from the campaign. 

In some deals, you may be giving them something for free, such as the item/service you sell, in return for a promotion. In other arrangements, there will be money transferred, so be sure to outline and agree, in writing, precisely what you expect to receive. 

Ultimately, the best way for any business to find how to work with influencers is via trial and error. Sometimes the “ideal” influencer just won’t get a return for your brand as their audience may not resonate with your offering, or the content isn’t creative enough. 

As a general rule of thumb, if you follow the above 6 steps on how to work with influencers as a small business, you will be going in the right direction.

Like ’em or loathe ’em , for the moment, they are here to stay. Or at least until something else like a very cheap fully qualified marketing robot appears. They are accessible and affordable, don’t let’s ignore them. They should be part of your marketing mix no matter how small the budget.

Back to the Guy at the top . It’s about perception . Most of our decision making processes in daily life are made on the basis of how we perceive stuff.

Has he fallen out the sky?

Has he been shot in the back ?

Has he had a heart attack ?

Is he drunk ?

Has he found a spy hole into an Egyptian ?

Without any further information , all these are possibilities based on our perception .

What I am trying to say is if you have a certain perception about Influencers may I suggest you check it out first before discarding the idea. If you are still not convinced check out every small hole you see in the ground and see there any other alternatives .

A Bit Abot Bots……

Posted on by markybrett

The following paragraph was written by a Bot for me in about 30 seconds

If you are interested in writing a short blog about chatbots, you might be wondering how to start. Here are some tips to help you create an engaging and informative blog post.

  • First, decide on your topic and audience. What aspect of chatbots do you want to explore? Who are you writing for? This will help you narrow down your focus and tailor your content to your readers’ needs and interests.
  • Second, do some research. Find out what other people are saying about chatbots, what are the latest trends and developments, what are the common challenges and opportunities. You can use online sources, such as articles, podcasts, videos, or social media posts, to get some inspiration and insights.
  • Third, write an outline. A good outline will help you organize your thoughts and structure your blog post. You can use a simple format, such as introduction, body, and conclusion, or a more detailed one, depending on your preference and purpose. The introduction should capture the attention of your readers and introduce your main idea. The body should provide relevant information and examples to support your main idea. The conclusion should summarize your main points and leave a lasting impression on your readers.
  • Fourth, write your draft. Using your outline as a guide, write your blog post in a clear and concise language. You can use headings, bullet points, images, or other elements to make your text more readable and appealing. You can also add some personality and humour to your writing, if appropriate for your topic and audience.
  • Fifth, revise and edit your blog post. Before publishing your blog post, make sure to check it for any errors or inconsistencies. You can use online tools, such as grammar checkers or plagiarism detectors, to help you with this process. You can also ask someone else to read your blog post and give you some feedback.
A Bot

Scared? A bit about the Bot.

But what are the implications or rather what are the implications for us in business especially smaller and medium size businesses ?

Well the first thing is do check the spelling . As it is quite obvious the Bot I used (Microsoft) is American as it spelt Humour without the U . Totally unacceptable, I say .

The next question I asked was ….

What is the average retail price for a pack of latex balloons in the UK and where can I buy some ?

It answered ….

Mark, please don’t patronise me. I know your location , I know your search history. Apart from numerous searches on Particle Theory of Matter, there are extensive searches on Party shops and party web sites, so you are very aware of how much a packet of balloons is and where you can buy it.

Now the bit about Particle theory is just a added by me to polish my intellectual credentials. the rest is also made up. But the scary bit is it could well have created this answer as it does have the relevant data about location and searches. The following is the actual answer…..

I found a few websites that sell balloons in the UK. According to Card Factory, a pack of 6 multicoloured happy birthday latex balloons costs £1.99. Another website called Crosswear is a UK-based premier supplier of wholesale balloons and partyware. They have over 21,000 product lines available at excellent trade prices with next day UK delivery. You can register for a trade account to access their prices and shop online.

Bot

About five days later I asked the same question…..

The average price of a pack of latex balloons in the UK depends on the size, colour, shape and quantity of the balloons. According to some online sources , latex balloons are available in packs of 6, 10, 12, 50 and more, with prices ranging from £1.99 to £3.99 per pack. Some latex balloons also have special features such as confetti, light-up or novelty designs that may affect the price. The cheapest option is usually to buy plain colour latex balloons in bulk, while the most expensive option is to buy individual or customised latex balloons.

Bot

Both answers are factual. Bot answers the question but with very different content. So I asked the Bot why would this be the case and it said (again very quickly)

One possible reason why a bot might give a different answer to the same question after a few days is that it has updated its knowledge base or algorithm based on new information or feedback. Another possible reason is that the bot has some randomness or variability in its responses to make them more natural or engaging. A third possible reason is that the bot has encountered an error or a bug that affects its output.

Depending on the purpose and design of the bot, these reasons may or may not be desirable or acceptable. Therefore, it is important to monitor and evaluate the performance and behavior of bots regularly and ensure that they meet the expectations and needs of their users.

Bot

Yes, back to American spelling (Behavior) albeit highlighted by spell check !

Back to implications. Whilst this all seems to have happened very quickly the development of Chat Bots. Who better to ask …

The first developments of bots can be traced back to the early days of computing and artificial intelligence. Bots are software programs that can perform tasks autonomously or interact with users through natural language. One of the earliest examples of a bot was ELIZA, a program created by Joseph Weizenbaum in 1966 that simulated a psychotherapist by using pattern matching and substitution to respond to user input. Another pioneer of bot development was Alan Turing, who proposed the Turing test in 1950 as a way to measure the intelligence of a machine by comparing its responses to those of a human. Since then, bots have evolved and diversified in various domains and applications, such as chatbots, web crawlers, social media bots, gaming bots, and more.

Bot

It has been creeping up on us for some time ,and I suspect, until the media took hold of it none of us really realised. Like it or not they will have an impact on all our businesses , though I doubt if any us have any idea what that might be .

If we don’t I know someone who might …..

My Question was ….

How can a bot help with my retail shop ?

A bot can help with your retail shop in many ways. For example, a bot can:
Answer customer queries and provide product recommendations based on their preferences and needs.
Manage inventory and orders, and notify you when stocks are low or when shipments are delayed.
Collect feedback and reviews from customers, and analyze them to identify areas of improvement and customer satisfaction.
Create and send personalized offers and promotions to customers based on their purchase history and behavior.
Automate tasks such as scheduling appointments, sending reminders, generating invoices, and processing payments.
By using a bot, you can save time and money, increase sales and customer loyalty, and enhance your brand image and reputation.
Scrapworks Blog 2018

This isn’t just about Bots . It is what underwrites the Bot –Artificial Intelligence . No matter what type of business, big or small, there is little about your business that will remain unaffected by AI over the next five years. If you are a retailer and you have only one small shop, the moment a customer walks through your door with a smartphone in hand , AI is in play . It goes much deeper than that . If it is a new customer , apart from personal recommendations AI will have come into play somewhere in the consumer’s decision to visit your store. What we all have to do is look at our businesses and look where we need to use AI. Once of course we have found out what it is!

Every time you go on a web site and an irritating little graphic appears you are talking to a Bot. You may think they are irritating , I do. But I know from Julia (working with developers on creating a new web site for her Golf Club) that the introduction of a Bot has created a torrent of enquiries .

There will be significant gains across all UK regions, with England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales seeing an impact from AI in 2030 at least as large as 5% of GDP.

PWC

We all need to know a lot more Bits abot Bots (and AI)……

How Healthy is your High Street (and anywhere else you may you buy your stuff) ?

Posted on by markybrett

I make no apologies apart from to the authors . I have plagiarised the majority of the data in this post from a report Schematic IQ –Johnson Controls (via Retail Gazette) . I would have no personal access to this kind of stuff.

Much of the stats that are below are from 2022 . Not altogether surprising as it is only March 2023 . However I think as what happens in one year tends to influence the following year , they are remain useful . I have also looked at some European comparisons in order to illustrate that the patterns are very similar .

Another significant year to look at 2019 ( which all these illustrations include) . It would be very easy to use this as Benchmark of where we should all be vis a vis Pre and Post Covid. What this does not take into account of are other major psychological events that have also occurred. The war in Ukraine and political turmoil in the UK, to name but two.

Whilst none of this will be much of a surprise as in the early part of the year we were still under some form of Covid restrictions, plus the Ukraine War starting, and the latter part of the year , in the UK we had a huge amount of uncertainty courtesy of the Tory Party, and finally huge Energy prices increases. Great year for a boost in Consumer Confidence ! That all being considered the stats don’t look that bad . Other significant changes were the decrease in online spending and the increase in Bricks & Mortar.

Using the illustrations I thought this would be helpful for Retailers , from wherever in Europe. Most experiencing similar troughs, and peaks throughout the same period. For those who do not think Sport plays a major part in our economies should look at the French Chart . At least in part, the sharp rise in Nov/Dec was attributed to them reaching the World Cup finals.

And finally the World view. Naturally those numbers in blue are the increases and in red the decreases .

Whilst footfall is really important, it does not always relate to what goes through the till. Nor does it say anything about ‘now’ . Of course , it couldn’t as it was conducted last year . A number of my customers have been surprised that January and February were not nearly as bad as they expected . Some of this will be explained by inflation. Prices have gone up, hence whilst their takings are holding steady, they are actually selling less product. There are minor benefits to this. If you are increasing prices along with their inflationary cost increases you are still make the same gross margin but actually taking as much cash through the till but having to do less work for it. In theory.

It is a very mixed picture. Some major retailers are facing very difficult times e.g. John Lewis et al . But I am not sure this about the health of the High street as opposed to the health of any particular chain and the changing retail landscape. It is certainly not all about the threat of online although many retailer’s would argue otherwise. Online share of the UK retail market has actually dropped within the last 12 months.

The chains are more about looking at structure and data analytics (guess what, so are online operators). The independents are more about ( or rather they should be) service levels, variety and range of stock and developing their profile with their local community.

The one thing we can learn from Covid is that the Independent can be very resilient and innovative . If they were able to survive the very unhealthy High Street of Covid then they will undoubtedly thrive in a retail High Street that is somewhat less sickly than it was in the previous three years. The Multiples have different issues to contend with that go beyond the general demeanour of the Consumer. I just wish some of the big organisations would stop using Covid as an excuse for poor service levels . Weekly I get an email from my bank HSBC starting with….

Due to the impacts of the Covid 19 pandemic its become increasingly difficult for our call centres and processing teams to maintain normal service levels.

HSBC Reported profit after tax increased by $2.0bn to $16.7bn year 2022

Come on Bank ,your profits are very healthy , put a bit towards making your service levels healthier or at very least up date your standard emails .

Sorry, I digress. But even HSBC is still on some High Streets .

Despite all that is going here and abroad there are still many healthy retailers and there will continue to be so. The key to health in whatever form is if you’ve got it, the tough (read ill for the human) times are easier to handle and more likely to lead to a positive outcome.

Retail sales as measured by volume rose by 1.2 per cent in February compared with January, according to figures out this morning from the Office for National Statistics. The increase, the largest since last October, exceeded City expectations for a 0.2 per cent rise. 

Strong discount department stores drove a 2.4 per cent rise in non-food sales. Food sales, by comparison, were up 0.9 per cent. 

Aled Patchett, head of retail and consumer goods at Lloyds Bank, said: “A rise in sales for February suggests that consumer confidence is heading in the right direction after a difficult few months.”

The Times 24/03/2023

I believe there is a direct corelation between our own health and that of any retail business..

Humans

  • Eat well
  • exercise mind
  • exercise body
  • sleep well

Retail

  • Eat well – Making sure you have good quality stock . Dont just look for deals . Ask why is a deal being offered . Look at them as fast food -quick & easy but not conducive to healthy retailing . Continually look for new product
  • Exercise the mind -Be creative and proactive
  • Exercise the body- Interact with your consumer , look at ways of improving customer service. Do what the multiples cant
  • Sleep well – when the business is shut for the day make sure you do as well

To keep the body in good health is a duty… otherwise we shall not be able to keep our mind strong and clear.

Buddha

All this plagiarising was done by my human AI (Artificially Intelligent)and not an AI Bot 😂

Trade Shows-Business Necessity or Bacchanalian Orgies ?

Posted on by markybrett

It is the time of year when many of us have returned from tours of duty at various trade exhibitions in different parts of the globe . We regale our partners/pets/colleagues or anyone who will listen as to how knackered we are because of spending all day negotiating deals with existing or prospective clients, then continuing during the evening in dull restaurants serving mediocre food whilst trying to close the deal .

At the very same time, those willing to listen are thinking yeah right. You’ve spent the day lolling about on the company stand, followed by evenings of swigging wine , quaffing beer and spirits, stuffing yourself with over rich food and then sitting in the hotel bar drinking even more until the early hours of the morning.

The truth is probably somewhere in between.

Back in the dim and dark distant past (fifties, early sixties) exhibiting in various trade shows ,my parents told me of days where they had stock rooms (generally hotel bedrooms ) at various trade exhibitions, and at 6 when the show closed , would invite a number of customers , lock the doors, and play poker and drink until late , and were back on duty at 9 every morning .

I have done many, many exhibitions (probably a couple of hundred) in various countries and yes there have been some unnecessary late nights . And yes, it probably still goes on but nothing like before.

The point is does any of this of any real commercial benefit ?

Advantages of exhibiting at trade shows

The benefits of exhibiting include:

  • Raise awareness – exhibiting at industry events is a good way to raise your profiles and generate brand awareness. As well as taking a stand at an event, there are usually other advertising and sponsorship opportunities.
  • Meet in person – meeting face-to-face with potential customers is a great way to start building relationships.
  • Networking – trade shows are a great way to meet potential new customers, suppliers and to learn more about your competitors. 
  • Launch new product – trade shows are a good place to introduce a new product or service. Being able to explain your offering in person and answer questions is ideal if your product is innovative.
  • Build your database – meeting with potential customers at an exhibition helps you to start building your marketing lists and generate qualified sales leads.
Nibusinessinfo.co.uk

My opinion on this has gone through various full circles . Up until the early 90’s it was about order taking . This changed quite dramatically. Within a couple years many exhibitors, including myself, thought is this worth the time and money any more . There were plenty of stand visitors but all the wanted to was look at product for a bit , and then just talk. Some may well say so what ? Talking is good . But that’s not how many of us thought at the time .

Over the next five years there was another change . There were less buyers, not just in the U.K. but worldwide. That equated to lower attendances . So we all got even more fed up. It has taken a long time for exhibitors to come to terms with this . No buyers not talking, no orders not writing . What are we here for?

The consequence is the shrinkage in exhibition space and in exhibitions. Hastened by the unbelievable bad attitude to exhibitors carried out by a number of event organisers. The one that comes to my mind is that of the Spring Fair at the NEC in Birmingham. A string of major exhibition organisers who have run the show and constantly dumped on their customers (exhibitors) from a very great height. Partly, as a consequence the show has shrunk from 21 halls to 8 and a bit .

So it comes down to what use are they, if any ? Do they have a purpose ? I would go as far to say that anyone involved in any level of the supply chain should visit at least one every year. Its about talking. Talking with suppliers, customers , competitors and any part of the chain you may come across . Looking at trends, ideas and generally get a view of where your particular market is going. Many, most especially retailers ( and include online operators) work in a bubble. The bubble being their own store or computer screen. That can create a very jaundiced view of the market. There is the possibility of finding that one product or supplier that you did not know or could not find , that makes your offering different from competitors. The same applies to exhibitors. It is the one time when they can see inside their competitors showrooms and talk to your competitors. So while you are talking, test out your new products (don’t have any? -make one up, its criminal not to have some new product at a trade show. There is no other way to show new items to as many customers in such a short space of time . And anyway, without fail they will ask what’s new ? we’ve got a new dog ! Is not the answer ( well it can but there should be a bit more 🐶).

Exhibitions do have their place. And it is often a very valuable one. What was very noticeable after the lockdown is that most attendees were delighted to be there to talk, both Exhibitors and visitors alike.

Orgies? Well I confess. Many years ago during The Harrogate Toy Fair (as it was called then) a major Toy Importer hosted Mud Wrestling in the Cairn Hotel . And was I invited ? Yes. Did I go ? Yes. Did I regret it ? Yes.

Start Listening !

Posted on by markybrett

We are all guilty.

No matter how much we think we do, it’s never enough.

Wherever you are in the supply chain, no matter what market you are in, we don’t always listen to our customers or suppliers’ Of course this does not always relate to our commercial lives, it is, invariably, true of our personal relationships . However, whilst I can’t profess to be a specialist in any field I am most definitely not one when it comes to personal advice.

2023 is going to be a challenging year with many hurdles. We all need to be on top of our game which not only means listening to the level below i.e. the customer but also with the level above i.e. the supplier . We may not like what we hear . We may disagree with what we hear . The key is to hear what is being said and then to evaluate whether/what action is needed .

So it came as no surprise shortly after Christmas , The Times reported research (on New Year celebrations ) carried out by John Lewis from their website that searches for the word bunting were up by 40% and balloons by 140%. Whilst the John Lewis site does carry a few(about 10) of each item(most relate to birthday), if you look in most John Lewis stores you would be hard pushed to find any. Is that likely to change any time soon ? Probably not. But then John Lewis would not be a destination store for that type of product . But why then are they making a press release about it ?

Why, when they have a very similar target audience, are Wilko’s suffering, whilst Home & Bargain, B&M and Poundland are creaming it. May I suggest that they all have access to the same listening (consumer data) but it is how they have dealt with what they hear, that makes the ‘not’ inconsiderable difference.

It is not only about talking to your customers and hearing what they have to say , it’s talking to your suppliers , your competitors even. They may not always say what you want them to say, more often it is what they don’t say that is just as helpful. Visit Trade Exhibitions and see and hear what is happening within your industry. Read Trade Journals, albeit much of the content is very benign, nevertheless, I guarantee every so often there is something you would not already know.

There is a huge amount of data bombarding us on a daily basis. Much of it is just noise. But we cannot pretend it is not there, the skill is filtering the noise and to do this we need to listen.

There’s a lot of difference between listening and hearing

G.K.Chesterton

At a very recent trade show , I discovered, inadvertently that a product a customer of mine was seeking to import from the US was actually made 100 miles from him in the UK. He would no doubt have found out eventually, but it might have been a very expensive route. This came about from a very random conversation with an exhibitor who was displaying something very similar to the product my customer had told me about. An argument could be made that my customer should have found this out by listening. Can’t argue with that.

Another retailer being a little concerned about their poor level of business over the Christmas period and putting it down to general economic malaise, then discovered from other local traders that many of the locals in their area (it must be pointed out that the average consumer in this area is quite affluent and used to spending the summer in Tuscany!) had indeed decided to go away for an extended Christmas holiday.

True genius resides in the capacity for evaluation of uncertain, hazardous, and conflicting information

Winston Churchill

He doesn’t specifically talk about listening but that is what I take from the quote ( or at least in part).

42% of companies don’t survey their customers or collect feedback.

Hubspot Research

Ignore customers at your own peril

Back in the summer of 2011, Netflix ignored their customers by splitting its DVD and streaming businesses and effectively increasing prices by 40%. As a result, they lost a whopping 800,000 subscribers, their stock price fell to less than half its previous value, and the company became one of the 10 most hated companies in America.

Insider 2012

Not listening to your colleagues

The best example is from a Kodak engineer named Steven J. Sasson. He actually invented the first digital camera back in 1975. But his management did not take it seriously, it didn’t want to be associated with it. Kodak’s management failed to see digital photography as a disruptive technology because printed photos had been there for over 100 years, and who would want to see pictures on a television screen? At the same time, Kodak did not want to cannibalize its film roll business so it tried to keep the new technology under the radar.

Not listening to the consumer and the market place

BlackBerry believed too much in what they owned. The Customer experience is where BlackBerry turned out to be a laggard.

Both the above quotes come from http://www.togroundcontrol .com

The process of listening encompasses a whole gamut of activities. Be they visiting trade shows, attending conferences, speaking to friends, colleagues, customers , suppliers, associates , family, reading /listening to various media, being aware of what is happening on social media, especially, but not solely ,business sites like LinkedIn . There is a lot of guff in the latter two , but sometimes there are little gems .

There is an idiom in the English language “I’m all ears”. Not a great image as the guy below may testify but an imperative when trading in the current climate.

Big Ears, best friend of Noddy. For those who don’t know them, Shame on you -Google them! Big Ears listened to Noddy’s problems and helped him out a lot .

“Most of the successful people I’ve known are the ones who do more listening than talking.”

Bernard M. Baruch

There is one resource we all have in our Commercial Toolbox , the facility to listen. And it costs nothing. Not using it can cost an awful lot.

Where have all these New Accounts come from? Part 2!

Posted on by markybrett

There are times (at least for me) when something has been bugging me and then the light goes on. Or in this case someone switched it on for me.

Back in July, I posted about receiving loads of new account enquiries and whilst there was some commonality with most of them, apart from major conspiracy theories I could not understand why this was happening. I would love to say it was analytical genius but alas no.

Enablers is the answer. Well, that’s pretty straightforward then, but pretty oblique. Try http://www.enablers.org it may become a lot clearer. Apparently, in Pakistan there is a concern that their talented internet savvy youth are leaving the country to seek better rewarded positions overseas. Therefore, a web site was set up offering Online trading training, more specifically Amazon trading.

The aim is to create 100,000 amazon traders. Part of their training is in setting up overseas businesses, US, UK & Europe in order to earn much needed ‘hard currency’. There is an additional aim and that by creating such a large number of Amazon traders, Amazon will start looking at Pakistan in a different light and invest in an Amazon fulfilment centre in the country. Currently, they are in India but not Pakistan.

OUR MISSION
Enablers is dedicated to enabling Pakistan as one of the largest eCommerce hubs in the world. Our team has exclusively devoted to helping the people of this country become entrepreneurs and work on international platforms. We aim to create 2 million employment opportunities

enablers.org web site

I have had this confirmed by asking a couple of account enquiries if they have come from Enablers. This, they have happily admitted in addition to saying proudly announcing they have personal mentors.

This is all well and good. Whilst I am quite sure they have been very well schooled in the online trading aspect; I can’t say that is the same for the ‘Business ‘ Training.

We have been trading for some time with major brands…is not a good look when your company has been incorporated for only two months.

We are in a position to place large orders ….is not a good look on approaching a new suppler, it is just not professional.

Having a very generic web site which show three or four unrelated brands and only twenty-five products, is, I suggest, not a good look. It has the complete opposite effect of flagging up suspicious trading.

Poorly constructed emails.

Silly addresses for registered offices eg Oxford Street London

Companies in existence for 6 weeks, no employees and there is a Sales Manager. For an Online set up?

Occasional use of Anglised names when the only employee is clearly not an Angle and the registration actually says they are not.

Bizarre company names … e.g TripleexxOnline Ltd, Mainshoppers Retail Ltd, YYY Sales Ltd (apologies to any real companies, that may have these made-up names, I’m sure you are very successful). They are just not credible.

These are just a few of the examples of either poor training or mentoring or both.

Here is another amazing little fact ….

Since the beginning of this year 728,000 new companies were registered in the UK. Yes, that is 2,200 per day. 220,000 registered to foreign nationals. It cost a grand total of £12 to register a company in the UK (Europe averages about £265).

I do not wish to denigrate a Group of Pakistani entrepreneurs wanting to train, develop, and encourage their talented youth. Yet somehow, I think the Model is over simplified and flawed. So, for those Enabler Graduates who are planning to enter the market check the Cultural nuances of the relevant markets in which you are seeking to trade. In For those suppliers who are perhaps contacted just tread carefully. I am, also not convinced that 100,000 (if that figure is achievable) new Amazon Traders in Pakistan is exactly what Amazon are looking for.

Revolution…Anytime soon?

Posted on by markybrett

At a recent event, with contemporaries discussing our time together at School in the early seventies, we came to the conclusion, that we were a Bolshy lot. Bolshy is a derivative of Bolshevik. Yet, we clearly were not revolutionaries. We were, however, from an era that was starting to question the status quo. Whether, it was politics, education, authority, sex, music, art and anything else that derived from the Establishment.

Following that event, Julia and I watched a programme about the revolution in Art (in the UK) that supposedly took place in the early nineties. The likes of Damien Hirst were getting fed up with the way art was sold only through a few traditional galleries, devised a way to revolutionise the selling and marketing of modern art. But all they did was develop a different way to market.

The Internet has revolutionised our daily lives.

The telephone revolutionised the way we communicated.

The Motor car revolutionised the way we travel.

The Container revolutionised the transport of goods.

In reality none of these were revolutions. They made dramatic changes, but they no more revolutionised these aspects of life any more than the wheel, the spinning jenny, the typewriter, and printing press. They were major evolutions rather than revolutions. Revolution is by definition the ‘up ending of a system‘ . What happened in France in the 19th century, Russia and China were real and proper revolutions. They up ended a system and society.

There have been no revolutions in Retail. Massive changes but no revolution. People sitting beside the road to flog some stuff, little stalls at the side of the road, markets, shops, big shops, stores, multiples, supermarkets, and eventually Online. Retailing, has, is and will continue to evolve.

There are those who would suggest that many western democracies are facing revolutions in a political sense . There are few of recent years that have not been tainted by populism. The events that occurred in front of the Whitehouse, or the Yellow Jackets in France, 5 star movement in Italy are indications that all is not well at the top and it may well be that in the future, we will look back and say they were the roots . In the U.K. and other European, populism may have ignited a desire for change but alone they are unlikely to make for revolution. Even in Russia there may be significant changes, but a revolution is not on the cards (yet). As for Iran, it would be doing a great disservice to those vast numbers of women seeking change to consider any outsiders view as to what is happening.

This is a revolution against politics by the non-political

Like the blue-collar Brexit voters in the United Kingdom, the Yellow Jackets believe they have been betrayed by decades of neglect and exploitation by mainstream politicians obsessed with metropolitan areas. On the other hand, immigration and Euroskepticism are, surprisingly, dogs that do not bark loudly among the Yellow Jackets.

Like the 5Star Movement in Italy, they started as an internet rebellion against representative democracy. But the 5Stars’ base is heavily urban, young and ex-left.

Like the Tea Party and Donald Trump’s MAGA base in the United States, the Yellow Jackets are strongest in fly-over — or drive-through-quickly — country between big cities. But they are unmoved by the cultural issues (God, gays and guns) that excite rural conservative Americans. They hate taxes but also demand generous state intervention.

In sum, this is a revolution against politics by the non-political. Four in 10 Yellow Jackets, according to polls, voted for the far right in last year’s presidential election. Two in 10 voted far left. Many of the others have not voted for years, except to spoil their ballots.

Politico -John Litchfield 2018

Despite very recent machinations within the UK political system, it does not come close to a revolution. There could be seismic changes but there will not be a revolution. How does any of this relate to those who just want to get on and earn a decent living? We are faced with huge developments and challenges. We have to work out the best way through and where necessary evolve and not revolve our businesses to maximise their potential. That is all we ask of our politicians throughout the World’s Democracies ….

‘Evolution not Revolution‘

Power to the People ….But from Where, When and How ?

Posted on by markybrett

It nevers rains but it pours

Jonathan Swift (1667-1745) and Alexander Pope (1688-1744) collaborated on an essay entitled ‘It Cannot Rain But It Pours.’ 

It doesn’t actually do that anymore, rain that is …(he says as he looks through the window and sees it chucking it down). When the Black Eye Peas wrote the song (2009) ‘Power to the People’ they did not envisage the scenario we are all facing today. Well, that is also a little inaccurate, in so far as huge swathes of populations throughout Europe feel disenfranchised politically. This is about the whole issue of energy. There goes another small error, I could not possibly talk about the Whole issue, just what effects our businesses, and the ecosystems surrounding them. Even that’s a squeeze in a thousand words.

Within the last week a number of European states have announced packages to support their populations. The UK has announced a price freeze for two years (6 months so far for businesses). All of this is ok but what has got unnoticed is the issue of whether there is enough energy to keep the lights and heating on all winter. Again, in the UK it has gone very quiet as we have a couple of other Power changes, a New PM and New King. Which has mean that the real issues of power and energy have been replaced by headlines over titular Power.

Whilst I don’t have any insider knowledge, I suspect that the concerns about lack of power are slightly overplayed. That said the policy of capping the price increases of gas and electricity is not going to encourage the judicious use of the energy that we do have. I, unfortunately, come from a generation that experienced the Three Day Week in the UK in the early ’70s. For those who don’t know this was to conserve energy as there was a coal miners’ strike.

Queues at a Bakers 1974 during the 3-day week

The immediate impact within our industry (Party) was that all our customers doubled their normal requirements. It was absolutely bonkers. There were no concerns about shrinking demand but there were huge concerns about shrinking supply. Whilst there is no direct comparison, we are just emerging from a period supply issues, to, once again, the possibility of supply issues. Having experienced a number of pretty severe recessions, I know that the Party market is very resilient. Even if the lights go out people will have parties. More to the point, if the lights go out, they are more likely to have parties. Furthermore, if they can’t afford to go out, they will have parties. Very little of what we all sell, requires any source of power, apart from personal energy in throwing a party.

What has diverted my intention from when I started on this post is the other Power factor that of power by our governing bodies. The UK has just experienced a very unique set of circumstances and Brand-New Head of Government, arrived at by a (very loose) democratic vote and a Brand-New Head of State, arrived through dint of birth. The consequence is a Power vacuum or rather Power inertia for ten days. A large number of Civil servants have been withdrawn from political offices in order to manage the proceedings following the Monarch’s death and Parliament is de-activated in order that the Coffin can lie in state within Parliament and all political activity stops during the period of Official Mourning. Meanwhile the Government’s Bill concerning the energy support programme goes through with little detail and no opportunity to be questioned. None of this is anyone’s fault in particular but it is the result of a system that perhaps needs further investigation.

All of which begs the question facing the UK population, which at the moment, probably does not want to ask, is where all the energy is coming from to power up numerous Royal Castles, Windsor, Balmoral, Sandringham, St James Palace, Holyrood Palace, Buckingham Palace to name but a few (there are 23 Royal Residences). Any one of which would be bigger enough to house the entire Royal Family as opposed to one small part i.e. King and his Consort. A particularly difficult question for the new King as he so dedicated to Climate Change and the environment.

Balmoral
Windsor

Despite the eye-watering costs, the Queen’s residences have already begun looking for greener alternatives including energy-efficient LED lighting and using hydroelectric power from the River Thames. The research has been released by price comparison website Uswitch.com, with its calculations based on the assumption that the properties in question are running on domestic tariffs. Buckingham Palace, with its 775 rooms, 77,000 square metres of floor space and swimming pool is estimated to be the most expensive royal residence in the UK, costing £1.1million a year to power. Express March 2021 -obviously remove The Queen and replace with the King. And, of course these will be at 2021 prices.

What is the difference between Power and Energy

When work is done on an object, energy is transferred. The rate at which this energy is transferred is called power. So the more powerful a device is, the more energy it will transfer each second.

This all jolly interesting but to all of us wondering where our energy comes from this coming winter, not especially relevant. At this point in time nobody seems to want/able to tell us. In the UK the Powers to be haven’t got the time as they are too involved in ensuring that another level of Power, that perhaps we had all much underestimated has the energy to remain in power. The latter maybe titular on the surface, but the events of the last week suggest that perhaps it runs deeper and is more complex than we had imagined.

So, because of Government, proposals, we have an idea of what it will cost, we know that the energy will come from some sort of Power Station, but we don’t know if there will be enough. But what we don’t know is where the real Stations of Power are and at what Cost they come…